Tennis Betting Advice - September 2021

US Open Day 8 - Men's entertainment at 300/1...

Monday 6th September 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • US Open – Day 8…
  • 4th Round…
  • 3-1 Set Betting picks…

It wasn’t quite the precise 7-5, 6-2 score that we were looking for in the matchday markets. But our pick Aryna Sabalenka blasted her way through to a first US Open quarter final last night.

The Belarusian clubbed Elise Mertens 6-4, 6-1. And not for the first time, Sabalenka was her own worst enemy – racking up 10 Double Faults. Even with that nasty tally, the world no.2 was still able to win reasonably comfortably in straight sets, and took a hefty 59% of Total Points Won in the match.

From odds of 28/1, 25/1 & 22/1 at the start of the season, and 14/1 on day one of the US Open last week, Sabalenka has now been installed as the 5/2 (3.5) favourite for the tournament.

Bencic v Swiatek…

We have two more women’s Outright Winner selections aiming to book a place in the quarter finals today. Belinda Bencic (33/1, 28/1) takes on our French Open star from last year, Iga Swiatek…

The Pole leads the head-to-head, 1-0. But has played two tough three-setters in the past two rounds. In comparison, Bencic has made serene progress so far, with a trio of 2-0 victories in the early rounds. The oddsmakers have our player as the slight underdog today, at 11/10 (2.1).

Sakkari v Andreecu…

In the late-night match, you can see why the US Open organisers have given Maria Sakkari v Bianca Andreescu top billing. Their sole previous encounter came in the Miami Open semi finals in April – and it was a three-set barnburner…

Andreescu prevailed that night, initially letting a set-and-a-break lead slip, before then coming back from a break of serve down herself in the decider. The Canadian eventually squeaked it, 7-6, 3-6, 7-6. Before retiring injured during the final the next evening.

Maria Sakkari is no stranger to big, bruising matches. And one thing you have to admire about the Greek is her positive attitude and desire to compete. After match-point heartbreak in the French Open semi finals this spring, many players might have mentally wilted away for the remainder of the season. Sakkari is made of stern stuff though, and looks to have reset nicely now, settling herself into this US Open draw with a chance to now make the quarter finals, and go deep…

Indeed, the bookies make our player the 8/13 (1.62) favourite to win tonight. In the Outright betting, we’re on Sakkari at 50/1, 40/1 or 33/1. That price is now 16/1.

We’re probably looking at a 2am+ start for that one. Amazon Prime Video show replays, so if you don’t fancy an all-nighter, you can catch up on the action during daylight. It should be a very good match.

Men’s 4th Round – 3-1 picks at 300/1…

Monday’s men’s 4th-round schedule also promises plenty of entertainment…

Last year’s beaten finalist Alexander Zverev is getting closer and closer to winning a first Grand Slam. The 24-year-old German takes on another very, very good young player, the 20-year-old Italian, Jannik Sinner.

Novak Djokovic remains the odds-on tournament favourite, as he looks to complete a historic ‘Calendar Grand Slam.’ Novak doesn’t like it when the crowd don’t cheer for him, but he might have to deal with that again tonight. The New Yorkers will be getting behind their new bright spark, 20-year-old Jenson Brooksby.

Away from the main court of Arthur Ashe, Team USA will also be vocally represented in the Louis Armstrong Stadium, with 6’11” Reilly Opelka looking to reach new heights and reach the US Open quarter finals for the first time…

The American takes on another in-form big server, Lloyd Harris of South Africa. The head-to-head is 1-1. The last time these two met, two out of three sets were settled by a tiebreak, 7-6. The bookies are expecting more of the same this evening, with the 7-6 options at the top of the betting in the Set Correct Score markets.

Oscar Otte has impressed in patches this season, and seems to raise his game for the big occasion. The 28-year-old is in uncharted Grand Slam territory here. Not so for his opponent Matteo Berrettini, who is fresh from a debut Major final at Wimbledon this summer, and was also a semi-finalist here at the US Open in 2019.

Serving stats:

  • Opelka has hit more Aces than any other player in the tournament so far (85 Aces from 3 matches)
  • Otte has hit the Fastest Serve of the competition (151 mph)
  • Zverev is ranked 1st of the players remaining in the draw for percentage of 1st Serve Points Won (88%)

I like the look of these four matches today, with a series of plays in the Set Betting market my angle for targeting some big prices…

Zverev, Djokovic, Opelka, and Berrettini are all odds-on favourites to win their respective matches. The Match Winner four-fold pays just 7/5 (2.4).

I rate the 3-1 Set Betting scores as the best way to snag some value here. With the fancied men to get through, but not without dropping a set along the way…

  • Zverev v Sinner – Zverev dropped a set in the last round, and the career head-to-head v Sinner is tied at one win apiece. This should be very competitive, but I give the world no.4 the overall edge
  • Djokovic v Brooksby – Djokovic has dropped sets in two of the last three rounds, winning 3-1 against the experienced Kei Nishikori, and also 3-1 against 18-year-old Holger Rune
  • Opelka v Harris – they’ve met twice before, and on both occasions, both men won a set. Opelka has the American crowd and momentum behind him
  • Otte v Berrettini – when these two met at the French Open this year, the Italian prevailed, 3-1. Berrettini has dropped sets in each of the last two rounds, but got over the line strongly in the end

In each of these match-ups, the 3-1 Set Betting score is available at odds of 13/5 (3.6) – 4/1 (5.0):

Zverev 3-1
Djokovic 3-1
Opelka 3-1
Berrettini 3-1

Those 3-1 scores roll up to a spine-tingling 300/1+ for the four-fold acca.

I’m putting the four legs in a Yankee bet (six doubles, four trebles & the four-fold). At the odds available, any two would more than cover stakes. Three out of four would be nicely profitable. And four out of four would be party time.

A Yankee is made up of 11 lines. It’s up to you how you stake, of course. I’m looking at this as roughly one point per match. For example, 0.4 pt x 11 lines = total stake of 4.4 pts.

Ones to Watch – US Open 2021

Men’s 4th Round matches – Set Betting:

  • YANKEE: Zverev to win 3-1, Djokovic to win 3-1, Opelka to win 3-1, Berrettini to win 3-1 

Best prices at William Hill (339/1 for the four-fold), Skybet (315/1), Unibet (302/1).

Play starts from 5pm.

I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 9 email, ready for the start of the quarter finals.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch