Tennis Betting Advice - September 2021
US Open Day 9 - "I was prepared for 7-6 in the third"...
Tuesday 7th September 2021
In Ones to Watch today:
Reaching for the coffee…
Forgive me if you find any spelling mistakes in today’s email…
It was a late, pulsating night at the US Open. Some truly spectacular tennis – rising stars – and a couple of good results for us, too.
The action went on from 4pm yesterday afternoon, to 7.15am this morning, UK time. I’m not going to claim to have watched every minute of it. But let’s just say, I didn’t get the recommended number of hours sleep.
I love watching the tennis. The ups and downs of the scoreboard never cease to enthral me. Sometimes it’s agony, sometimes it’s ecstasy…
Two out of four ain’t bad…
Yesterday’s men’s 3-1 Set Betting combo proved a worthwhile exercise, generating a small profit from two out of four correct selections.
But – always wanting more – I was cursing the fact that Jannik Sinner wasn’t able to take any of the five set points that he had in the third set against Alexander Zverev. At that stage, our man Zverev had a two-sets-to-nil lead. Had Sinner taken it into a fourth, the 3-1 Zverev win would’ve then been odds-on to land. It ended 3-0 to Zverev.
The big-serving battle between Reilly Opelka and Lloyd Harris produced a 3-1 score – but to the wrong man. With South Africa’s Harris reaching a first Grand Slam quarter final, and peppering his American opponent with 36 Aces. Opelka hit 24.
Two clicked in for a 3-1 result though, with Matteo Berrettini beating underdog Oscar Otte in four sets. And world no.1 Novak Djokovic coming from a set down to beat the exciting 20-year-old American, Jenson Brooksby, 3-1. That was a fantastic match.
Berrettini 3-1 and Djokovic 3-1 combined for an 18.5/1 double at the best prices (William Hill), and around 16/1 elsewhere. Making the 11-leg Yankee on those four matches & 3-1 scores a decent effort – and not a million miles from a 300/1 roof party.
They don’t come off that often, but playing at the big prices is rarely dull…
Three contenders in the women’s…
At the start of the women’s tournament, 128 names were in the hat. In the Outright Winner market, we backed a total of eight of them, representing 6.25% of the field.
Heading into the quarter finals, we’re on three of the eight players left in the competition – taking our share of the pack to a healthy 37.5%…
Our Women’s Quarter Finalists:
Aryna Sabalenka
28/1, 25/1, 22/1 ante-post in January; 14/1 on day one last week
Now 11/4 (3.75)
Belinda Bencic
33/1, 28/1
Now 13/2 (7.5)
Maria Sakkari
50/1, 40/1, 33/1
Now 8/1 (9.0)
Sabalenka tonight…
It’s always the aim to be in contention come week two and the business end of a Grand Slam. If I’m being picky, I’d like to have been on the 100/1+ teenagers, too – Leylah Fernandez and Emma Raducanu. Overall, though, we can be happy with the three ladies that we have running for us here, all backed at attractive Each Way prices.
Aryna Sabalenka is first up for us in the quarter finals. The 23-year-old from Belarus takes on this year’s 175/1 French Open champion, Barbora Krejcikova. That match is scheduled for Midnight or just after, opening up the Night Session on the Arthur Ashe court…
Sakkari shows her steel…
The fans were in the stadium until well past 2am last night, with Maria Sakkari’s epic 6-7, 7-6, 6-3 comeback win over Bianca Andreescu going down as the latest finish in women’s US Open history. The match lasted 3.5 hours.
We said to expect a ‘barnburner’ in that one. In the Miami semi finals in April, Andreescu beat Sakkari in another tiebreak-filled thriller, 7-6, 3-6, 7-6. This time, Sakkari got her revenge. Displaying all the trademark fitness, aggression, positive attitude, and fighting spirit that led us to back her at outsider odds in the first place…
While Andreescu limped around between points towards the end, Sakkari looked like she could run all night. In the post-match interview on court – conducted with the clock fast approaching 2.30am – Maria’s comments said it all about her mindset and preparation. With a knowing reference to that Miami lung-buster, the 26-year-old said:
“I was prepared for 7-6-in-the-third, but if it comes easier, I’ll take it … I really wanted to win”
Sakkari goes on to face Karolina Pliskova in the quarter finals on Wednesday.
Another note on Maria. She’s coached by a young Englishman named Tom Hill. Maria and Tom are both 26 years of age, and he’s actually a few months her junior. That’s not something you see very often. Sakkari is one to watch; we already know that. And so is Tom Hill – 26 is young for a coach at this top level of the game. Great to see.
Bencic flying under the radar…
The third player we have flying the Ones to Watch flag in week two of the US Open 2021 is Belinda Bencic…
Despite having a special summer, the 24-year-old Swiss isn’t getting many column inches. That’s okay with us. We like to be on an outsider.
Bencic won Singles Gold at the Tokyo Olympics in July, having gone off at 80/1 in the betting. That career-best win was achieved on hard courts. It’s no coincidence that Belinda’s best WTA and Grand Slam performances have all also come on the hard stuff.
Including Tokyo, five of Belinda’s six titles have come at hard-court events.
And New York has been by far the best Grand Slam venue for the current world no.12. This week marks the third time in six visits that Bencic has reached the quarter finals at the US Open. With a quarter final on her Flushing Meadows debut back in 2014, and a semi final in 2019 (didn’t play 2020). And now, a 2021 quarter final – with the chance to go even further…
The hype machine…
As we head towards tomorrow’s big match, the hype machine will be all about Belinda’s young opponent, Emma Raducanu. That’s to be expected from the British press in particular, with the 18-year-old ticking all the boxes as a headline-grabber.
We’ve seen the pressure and expectation ramped up a bit too much for teenagers before, though. With both Raducanu, and America’s Coco Gauff, perhaps suffering from a bit too much attention by the end of their breakthrough runs at Wimbledon in recent times.
Take nothing away from how Raducanu has played and handled herself here in New York. But I watched yesterday’s 6-2, 6-1 win over Shelby Rogers – and her American opponent wilted under the lights. Having knocked out world no.1 and tournament favourite Ash Barty in the previous round, Rogers had run her race.
Having come through the qualifying rounds with three 2-0 wins, the British teenager has now won seven matches in a row this US Open fortnight, without dropping a set. Impressive stuff.
Making a case for our player though, Bencic is also yet to drop a set. Putting together a fourth consecutive 2-0 victory yesterday evening, with a high-quality 7-6, 6-3 triumph over a very, very tough opponent in world no.8, Iga Swiatek.
There’s no doubting that Raducanu has been one of the stories of the summer. Her record reads: Wimbledon 4th Round – WTA San Jose 1st Round – ITF (lower-tier tour) Landsvile Quarter Final – WTA Chicago (125-grade, lower-tier) Final, Runner-Up – and now US Open Quarter Final.
But let’s give Bencic’s form the attention it deserves, too: Olympics Final, Won – WTA 1000 Cincinnati Quarter Final – US Open Quarter Final…
Read the BBC website or your daily newspaper, and you’d be forgiven for thinking Raducanu was the favourite for tomorrow’s match. But the bookmakers don’t have much room for sentimentality – and they have our player Bencic as the 4/6 (1.67) favourite.
No bets from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 10 email.
Right now, I’m off for a power-nap (!), and then a stroll in the fields while the sun is here. But if you want to get in touch, I’ll be back online later. My email is: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson