Tennis Betting Advice - September 2021
US Open Day 11 - we have a big night ahead of us...
Thursday 9th September 2021
In Ones to Watch today:
Super Sakkari…
If I was a football coach, I’d want Maria Sakkari in my team.
If I was a teacher, I’d want her in my class. To set an example to the other pupils…
We’ve spoken before about Sakkari’s brilliant attitude, positive mindset, and will to win.
After booking her place in the semi finals last night, the Greek continues to impress.
I just love these honest comments from Maria in her post-match press conference, after beating Karolina Pliskova in straight sets:
“I think I'm at the best age of my career. I'm more mature than before. As I said many times, I think every single player has a different timing of breaking through. Now it's probably my time at the age of 26. I came in late to the tour. I was not a good junior. I was not a star when I was 18 or 19 years old. I had to work and sacrifice a lot from my life. But it's now paying off…”
It certainly is paying off.
Maria’s underdog victory over Pliskova – a former world no.1, US Open runner-up, and recent Wimbledon finalist – came without even giving away a single break point.
If she continues to serve and play like that, then Sakkari really can go all the way here in New York.
From odds of 50/1, 40/1 & 33/1 when we backed her Each Way in the Outright Winner market last week, Sakkari is now 11/4 (3.75) for the title.
That 11/4 price makes the world no.18 the second favourite in the betting, on the eve of the semi finals.
Sabalenka out in front…
The woman installed at the top of the market is our other remaining tournament pick, Aryna Sabalenka…
The world no.2 is trading at 6/5 (2.2) and Evens (2.0). We got on Sabalenka at standout ante-post odds of 28/1, 25/1 & 22/1 back in January.
One day one of the US Open last Monday, the 23-year-old Belarusian was a top-price 14/1, and 12/1 in general.
Saver bet on the teenagers…
Overall, we backed eight women in the US Open 2021 Outright Winner market. From a starting field of 128 players, that means we covered 6% of the total competitors.
With the semi finals tonight and just four women left in contention, we have 50% of the field on our side. That’s an exciting position to be in…
With Sakkari and Sabalenka both in the book, Each Way, with place terms of 1/2 the odds for reaching the final. That means we’re one match victory away from securing a half-the-odds payout.
To avoid the risk of going home empty-handed, the sensible move today is to back their respective semi-finals opponents, as a ‘saver bet’…
Especially seeing as the two women on the other side of the net are precocious teenagers, who have so far confounded all expectations.
Play starts at Midnight UK time. The first semi final sees Sabalenka against Canadian youngster, Leylah Fernandez, who turned 19 just this week.
That match is followed by Sakkari stepping on to the Arthur Ashe Stadium court to take on Britain’s new 18-year-old star, Emma Raducanu.
Here are the bookmakers’ Match Winner odds:
I know some members always prefer to let a bet ride.
But depending on how you’ve staked your tournament bets, and the prices you’ve got in the book for Sakkari and Sabalenka. You may want to back Raducanu and Fernandez as singles today, with the plan being to cover or recoup your original outlay. It’s up to you, of course.
The double is 7/1…
The way I look at it, I’d be happy to get Sakkari or Sabalenka through to final. In the knowledge that an Each Way payout would be forthcoming – and the chance of the big win in the final would still be alive, too.
With that in mind, I’m having just one bet as a saver today. Putting up Raducanu & Fernandez as a match win double, which pays around 7/1 (8.0) or 13/2 (7.5).
The thinking being, we have to respect the teenagers’ chances of pulling off the upsets this evening. Having come this far with Sakkari & Sabalenka, on this occasion, I don’t want to risk missing out on a payout altogether.
I always treat Outright Winner bets as 1-point, Each Way (2 pts total). For me, a 4-pt stake on the Raducanu & Fernandez match double today represents a chance to end the tournament break-even overall, in the event of the ‘worst case scenario’ of both Sakkari & Sabalenka losing in the semi finals.
Of course, on the flipside of all this cautious thinking...
If Sakkari & Sabalenka both reach the final, we’ll be all smiles, whatever happens.
I’m excited for these matches to get underway. We’ve got two Ones to Watch picks in the semi finals, at big prices. Opportunities like this are what it’s all about. Roll on Midnight…
Ones to Watch – US Open 2021
SAVER BET – only place if you’ve previously backed Sakkari & Sabalenka in the Outright Winner market, Each Way, as advised
Match Winner:
Play starts from Midnight. You can watch live on Amazon Prime Video.
I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 12 email, looking at the men’s semi finals.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson