Tennis Betting Advice - September 2021

US Open Day 12 - and our next 100/1 teenager...

Friday 10th September 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • US Open – Day 12…
  • Another new name on the trophy…
  • Men’s Semi Finals… 

Incredible stuff…

I’ve been trying to type this all up for you, before I pass out…

A 5am finish meant I pulled an all-nighter…

What an absolutely sensational night of tennis in New York. We didn’t get the result we wanted. But it’s hard to do anything other than stand in awe and admire the achievements of the two teenagers.

Emma Raducanu is 18 years old. At the start of the season, she was ranked no.343 in the world. The Brit had never won a Grand Slam match – or a WTA Tour match either, for that matter. Fast-forward to this week, via a 4th-round breakout run at Wimbledon, and Emma is now into the US Open final.

It's quite incredible stuff. Emma becomes the first ever qualifier to reach the final. And she’s done it without losing a single set, winning nine out of nine matches, 2-0.

It looked like Olympic diver Tom Daley had the BBC Sports Personality of the Year Award in the bag. But now, Emma Raducanu is odds-on for that title.

100/1 plays 600/1…

Talking of betting, at the start of the US Open 1st round last week, Raducanu was ranked no.150 in the world, and priced as a 100/1 outsider.

As discussed earlier this week, I gave Emma a mention in Ones to Watch last summer, during lockdown. But I’m not going to pretend I saw anything like this kind of leap coming. Truly, it’s remarkable.

I’ve been around long enough to know to expect the unexpected. In life, in sport, in betting. And in women’s tennis, it’s been a mantra that has helped us find some massive winners, with players winning tournaments in a manner that would be plain unthinkable to the casual observer.

I thought the US Open 2015 final was the wackiest I’d ever see. A 200/1 shot, Flavia Pennetta, beat 500/1 rank outsider Roberta Vinci, in an all-Italian women’s final. Given the young age of the two players in the Flushing Meadows final this weekend though, this 2021 match-up probably takes the biscuit…

Raducanu was 100/1 on day one. Leylah Fernandez was even bigger…

Last Monday morning, Bet365 had Fernandez at 450/1. Skybet were 600/1. Elsewhere, 400/1 and 250/1. Everyone was 100/1+.

Why didn’t you tip her, Tom?

Unlike with Raducanu, where I just have to puff out the cheeks and say, where did that come from! Fernandez’s rise this fortnight is one that stings a bit more for me…

What’s that I hear you say? Tom, don’t beat yourself up for not picking out a 600/1 winner from a field of 128 players? Sounds daft when you say it out loud. But kick myself I do…

Leylah Fernandez was on my list of teenagers in this season’s Ones to Watch in 2021 report, published on 6th January. I even said this:

Let’s not forget, this time last year, Iga Swiatek was an 18-year-old with no Senior trophies to her name. She’s now a Grand Slam champion. Perhaps one of the players in this year’s report will be the source of the next 100/1 winner…

And in Fernandez’s section of the report, I even dropped the ‘Grand Slam’ bomb:

Leylah Fernandez ended 2020 at a career-high of No.88, and this talented and driven left-hander is being talked of as a potential future Grand Slam winner. Last year, Fernandez made the final at WTA Acapulco, as a 100/1 outsider. She has the look to me of a player that likes the challenge of playing the big matches, and isn’t afraid to play her own game against higher-ranked opponents. That could make her a serious one to watch this season.

Moving on now to my Ones to Watch article on 21st April. Where I flagged up Fernandez at 400/1 and 100/1 for the upcoming French Open. Even saying this about the Canadian teenager, in relation to the Grand Slam in Paris:

This is a get-the-price-in-the-book situation. Fernandez is considered a future Grand Slam winner. My advice is to take the best odds you can get.

The Ones to Watch game…

I’m not telling you all this so that I can bark about ‘the one that got away.’ Or to make us feel like we’ve missed some kind of open goal. We haven’t. Finding big – no, massive winners – is hard. Very hard. I take this as we’re doing plenty right. You can’t get them all. But the Ones to Watch way of thinking really does work. It’s a long-term business, though, that’s for sure.

Last year we successfully latched on to Iga Swiatek as an unheralded teenager, and she went on to blast her way to the French Open crown, landing us a punch-the-sky 100/1 winner…

The 2020 season also gave us another maiden Grand Slam champion, with Sofia Kenin lifting the Australian Open at 50/1. In both cases, we didn’t see anyone else talking up those players for those trophies.

And if you’re about to hammer out an email to me, demanding why I didn’t ‘take my own advice’ and back Fernandez here at the US Open. I can only offer you one thing: the truth. Having watched her play this summer, I simply didn’t see enough there to suggest what was about to come. Did anybody?

We’ve certainly been looking to get behind the teenagers in New York. Just not the right ones, this time. Ukrainian 19-year-old Marta Kostyuk went in the book at 100/1+. And 18-year-old Clara Tauson was a 6/1 underdog pick to beat world no.1, Ashleigh Barty…

Kostyuk lost to Maria Sakkari, who we then backed at 50/1, and the Greek made the semi finals – beaten by the on-fire Raducanu last night.

Tauson lost to Barty. The Australian, who was the pre-tournament favourite in the betting, then crashed out in the very next round.

Let’s keep Kostyuk and Tauson in mind for the 2022 Majors, and beyond…

As we saw last year with Swiatek, you get the chance to back these youngsters at massive odds before they make it big. The prices go after that. In 2020, Swiatek topped out at 100/1 for the French Open. Twelve months later, she went off as a 5/1 favourite.

For example, this morning, the bookies have already reacted with a value-scything approach to the 2022 prices for Raducanu. The Brit is trending on Oddschecker at as short as 10/1 third-favourite for January’s Australian Open, 16/1 for the French Open next spring, and also 10/1 for Wimbledon. Ouch. Anyone piling into those quotes is partaking in some plain old bandwagon-jumping, I’m afraid. Those odds are not for me.

Yet another new name on the trophy…

I’m not all doom and gloom this morning. Far from it. That semi-final line-up fully franked what we’ve been saying for some time. That the women’s game is wide open these days, and the big Grand Slam titles are all up for grabs…

All four US Open semi-finalists were looking to reach a Major final for the first time. There was guaranteed to be a new name on the trophy out of any of Sakkari, Aryna Sabalenka, Raducanu, and Fernandez.

Bringing the stats up to date, to include this weekend’s upcoming US Open final:

  • The last 19 women’s Grand Slams will have now produced 13 different winners
  • 11 of those last 19 – and 5 of the last 8 – will have been first-time Grand Slam winners
  • The last 5 women’s Majors have now produced 5 finalists at odds of 100/1+, and one at 50/1

Those are pretty phenomenal figures. We’ll be staying forward-thinking and aggressive with our women’s tournament picks. See below for one to get in the book now for 2022.

Thanks, Davids!

I was delighted to see two emails from Ones to Watch members in the inbox, with tales of profits from the teenagers in New York…

David C got on Raducanu at 66/1 last week. Well played, sir!

And David T took yesterday’s ‘saver bet’ advice and backed the teenagers, to end up with a big profit overall:

“Thank God I hedged! Loved that Raducanu and Fernandez were the underdogs, meant I could trade into a strong position. I'd have been £60 down from my Sabalenka and Sakkari positions but ended up over £600 up. Thanks for the tips, Tom!

Got something to say or share? I’d love to hear from you. Email me at:

tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

Let’s get the next 100/1 teenager in the book…

While everyone’s falling into the bookies’ trap and jumping on the new, short prices for Raducanu at next year’s Slams. Let’s get ourselves a 100/1 early-bird in the Outright Winner book for 2022…

The one I like in the currently-available betting lists is Clara Tauson at 100/1 for the Australian Open 2022:

  • Tauson is 18 years old. The Dane is currently ranked no.78 in the world. In comparison, new US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez arrived here in New York ranked no.73…
  • In the run-up to the US Open in August, Tauson won the lower-grade WTA 125 tournament on hard courts in Chicago. The player she beat in the final: Emma Raducanu…
  • This season, Tauson won a maiden title on the full WTA Tour. Lifting the trophy on indoor hard courts at the 250-grade event in Lyon. She came through the draw as a qualifier – just as Raducanu has done here in New York to reach her first Senior final…
  • In 2019, Tauson won the Australian Open Junior title. The player she beat in the final: Leylah Fernandez…
  • Across the WTA and lower-tier ITF Tours combined, Tauson has won 11 titles to date – and 10 of them have come on hard courts (6 outdoor, 4 indoor)

As we’ve seen in the last 12 months alone, teenagers can spring to life on the big stage, with little or no Grand Slam form to their name. 100/1 Swiatek, 100/1 Raducanu & 600/1 Fernandez are testament to that.

Add in this year’s French Open final, which saw two other Major final debutants, with 175/1 Barbora Krejcikova beating 150/1 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. And we should have no hesitation at all about getting a big-price newcomer in the book for the first Grand Slam of 2022…

In the ante-post markets, Bet365 and William Hill have Clara Tauson at 100/1 for January’s Australian Open. Going by what we’ve seen transpire recently, we should snap that up.

Meanwhile, in the Men’s…

With all the hysteria surrounding the teens in the women’s event. There’s also some history-in-the-making going on in the men’s US Open draw…

World no.1 Novak Djokovic is going after the calendar Grand Slam. With the 2021 Australian Open, French Open, and Wimbledon trophies already in the bag. The Serbian superstar is now just two wins away from completing the full set of Major titles this season. Novak faces serious Next Gen contender, Alexander Zverev, in the semi finals tonight.

In the other semi final, 2019 runner-up Daniil Medvedev takes on Felix Auger-Aliassime.

These could go to the wire…

I’m expecting a couple of good, very competitive matches tonight. Famous last words, perhaps, but I wouldn’t go rushing to back the 3-0 Set Betting scores for the two favourites, Djokovic and Medvedev

Novak has dropped the first or second set in four of his five matches so far this fortnight. With the 3-1 Set Betting score paying out four times.

Zverev had a five-set semi final at the French Open this year (lost 3-2), and also a five-setter here in the US Open semis last year (won 3-2).

Medvedev was taken to four sets for the first time in the quarter finals. His one previous meeting with Auger-Aliassime went the distance to three sets on the ATP Tour. This best-of-five encounter could get interesting.

The story is all about Djokovic and his quest for the calendar ‘Slam. But I can actually see an all-Next Gen final here…

In the Total Sets markets, you’ll get in the region of 11/4 (3.75) and 7/2 (4.5) for those matches to each go to 5 Sets.

Bet365’s ‘Go the Distance’ market pays out if the match goes to five sets and is settled by a final-set tiebreak, 7-6. So far this fortnight, the men’s tournament has seen seven of those. Djokovic-Zverev is 12/1 to Go the Distance, and Medvedev v Auger-Aliassime is 16/1.

My personal choice is for a pair of 3-2 Set Betting scores. With Zverev digging deep to upset Djokovic. And Medvedev coming through some twists and turns to eventually see off Auger-Aliassime in the fifth. There’s no crystal ball. But those are the outcomes and prices I like the look and feel of…

Zverev 3-2 is 8/1 (9.0) and 7/1 (8.0).

Medvedev 3-2 is 13/2 (7.5) and 6/1 (7.0).

The double pays a worth-staying-up-all-night for 66/1

Ones to Watch

Women’s Australian Open 2022

Outright Winner – Each Way:

Also available: 66/1 BetVictor, Betfred, 50/1 Betway, 888 Sport, Ladbrokes, Coral.

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Men’s US Open 2021 – Semi Finals

Set Betting:

  • Zverev to win 3-2 v Djokovic @ 8/1 William Hill, 7/1 in general
  • Medvedev to win 3-2 v Auger-Aliassime @ 13/2 William Hill, Boylesports, 6/1 in general
  • DOUBLE: Zverev 3-2 & Medvedev 3-2 @ 66/1 William Hill, 55/1 in general

Play starts 8pm.

I’ll be back on Saturday with your Day 13 email, as we take a closer look at that all-teenage women’s US Open final.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch