Tennis Betting Advice - September 2021
Raducanu v Fernandez – leaning to the left at 14/1…
Saturday 11th September 2021
In Ones to Watch today:
Annabel Croft made an interesting observation yesterday.
Interviewed for BBC News, where the broadcasting agenda was basically a one-sided hype show for British teenager Emma Raducanu.
Croft noted that one match where the 18-year-old dropped a few more games than in others, was against Georgian left-hander Mariam Bolkvadze, in the qualifying rounds…
Raducanu won 6-3, 7-5. Those eight games are the most that anyone has managed to take from Emma during her sensational run of nine straight 2-0 victories here in New York.
Clutching at straws?
You could argue that the fact we’re talking about how many games Raducanu gives away – rather than whether she even wins a match or not – shows just how wildly dominant & impressive the British teenager has been this US Open fortnight.
But it could be that there’s something in what Croft said…
Leaning to the left…
This morning, I’ve been looking into Raducanu’s record against left-handers. Seeing as summer 2021 has been Emma’s breakthrough in the Senior professional game, there’s not a lot of tangible form to go on.
The pro career match record v lefties stand at 8-1 to Raducanu. Nothing wrong with that…
Focusing on the 2021 numbers in particular, however, it is true to say that Emma hasn’t being winning quite as overwhelmingly against left-handed players, than she has been against the more common right-sided opponent.
Barring a 6-2, 6-4 triumph over the high-ranked but enigmatic/ unpredictable Marketa Vondrousova at Wimbledon. Some of Raducanu’s other score-lines against lefties this summer show that – if nothing else – she hasn’t been able to steamroller the scoreboard quite so easily…
Cases in point:
6-3, 7-5 v Mariam Bolkvadze (US Open Qualifying, hard – August)
3-6, 6-0, 6-1 v Ekaterine Gorgodze (ITF Landsville, hard – August)
7-6, 6-2 v Ysaline Bonaventure (ITF Landsville, hard – August)
7-6, 6-2 v Storm Sanders (ITF Nottingham, grass – June)
I’ve highlighted the sets where Raducanu lost (3-6), or was pushed close on the scoreboard (7-5, 7-6, 7-6).
Raducanu v Fernandez – the case for the underdog…
The reason I’m pursuing this line of enquiry is because the player that Raducanu will face in this evening’s first-ever all-unseeded US Open final is left-hander, Leylah Fernandez…
The 19-year-old has had an equally amazing US Open fortnight. While Fernandez hasn’t been obliterating her foes in double-quick time like Raducanu, the Canadian youngster has most definitely faced a higher level of opposition:
In the opening two rounds, Leylah beat two dangerous, former Top 20 players – Ana Konjuh, and then Kaia Kanepi.
That was then followed by four remarkable three-set victories, with Fernandez holding her nerve the better and battling back on several occasions. To win 2-1 against no fewer than three current Top 5 players. As well as three-time Major winner and former US Open champ, Angelique Kerber.
Whereas recent winning score-lines like 6-0, 6-1 and 6-2, 6-1 show Raducanu’s ability to slaughter the scoreboard. These Fernandez results show some serious grit, and – dare I say it – a name-on-the-trophy knack of coming through the tightest of situations, time and time again…
7-6, 4-6, 6-4 v Aryna Sabalenka
6-3, 3-6, 7-6 v Elina Svitolina
4-6, 7-6, 6-2 v Angelique Kerber
5-7, 7-6, 6-4 v Naomi Osaka
Talking of tight situations. Fernandez has played a total of five tiebreak (7-6) sets during this US Open run – and won them all.
Raducanu really hasn’t had any moments at all where she’s been seriously in peril on the scoreboard. If she can blast a flurry of winners past her fellow teenage finalist tonight, then that might not matter. But if it does get edgy at some stage, the mental muscle memory might just benefit the battle-hardened Fernandez…
The matchday betting has Raducanu as the favourite for the trophy, at 4/7 (1.57). You can’t argue with the form, the results she’s pulled off, and the way the 18-year-old has handled herself. But there’s got to be an element of British ‘fan’ money pushing that price a few ticks lower than it perhaps should be.
The case for Fernandez is a fair one to make. She’s higher-ranked, has more experience on the main WTA Tour, and has won a title and played finals at a higher level than Emma. Of course, this is a first Grand Slam final for either of these young women. The Canadian underdog is 6/4 (2.5) in general, with Bet365 going an industry-best 13/8 (2.63).
Leylah can work this groove…
Going back to the left-hander comment, the times where I’ve seen Leylah play the most effective tennis this tournament have been when she’s really started to hook her lefty forehand deep and wide, pushing opponents onto the run, requiring a backhand at a pretty awkward angle.
If Fernandez is able to start working that groove tonight, then Raducanu is either going to struggle to win those rallies – or pull off some of the most sensational shot-making you’re ever likely to see. I’m not ruling out the latter. We shouldn’t rule out anything at this US Open. But, ever on the side of the underdog, and especially when the price looks to be slightly off, I’m with Fernandez to steal this in three sets…
Raducanu to win 2-0 has paid off nine times in a row across her phenomenal run here at Flushing Meadows. That option is 5/4 (2.25) in general. If you’re in the Raducanu 2-0 camp, then you might also point to a 6-2, 6-4 score in Emma’s favour in her only previous meeting against tonight’s opponent, during the Wimbledon Juniors in 2018. A lot has changed for both players since then, though.
The Fernandez 2-1 Set Betting score has paid out four times in a row. I prefer odds of 9/2 (5.5) for that outcome. With the ‘left-hander’ angle maybe just being the thing that could swing it…
12/1 and 14/1 for Tiebreak triumph…
I also want to latch onto that Tiebreak stat. The women’s game is less serve-dominated than the men’s, so tends to produce less 7-6 sets. That means we get good odds when they do happen…
Fernandez has had a habit of playing tiebreaks during this US Open run – and winning them (five out of five).
Two of Leylah’s six matches have featured a 7-6 score in her favour in the 1st Set. And two have seen the youngster pull off a crucial tiebreak win to stay alive in a match in the 2nd Set.
Odds of 12/1 and 14/1 in those Set Correct Score markets appeal to my Ones to Watch mentality today. At those prices, we can have two bites of the cherry.
Grab the popcorn…
This New York crowd will show a lot of love and noise for both teenagers. But from what I’ve seen and heard so far, if they had to choose a winner, then they’d most likely side with Fernandez. Along with some cheeky smiles on court, Leylah’s ‘Statue of Liberty’ one-arm-aloft celebration has quite literally had the crowd out of their seats.
This has the potential to be an absolutely brilliant final. It’s already a historic occasion. Grab the popcorn, and get yourself in front of a screen to watch this one tonight…
As well as Amazon Prime Video coverage, Channel 4 have also got the final. Tune in at 9pm, UK time.
Ones to Watch – US Open 2021
Emma Raducanu v Leylah Fernandez
Women’s Final, 9pm
I’ll be back on Sunday with your Day 14 email for the men’s final – Novak Djokovic v Daniil Medvedev.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson