Tennis Betting Advice - September 2021

US Open Day 7 – Set Correct Scores at 7/1 and 12/1…

Sunday 5th September 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • US Open – Day 7…
  • 4th Round starts today…
  • Sabalenka v Mertens – Set Correct Scores…

It’s been a wild couple of days at the US Open. The drama continued late last night, with women’s world no.1 and tournament favourite Ash Barty knocked out in the 3rd round by America’s Shelby Rogers.

That result was a 9/2 (5.5) upset on the night. Rogers came back from two breaks of serve down, 5-2, in the final set. That follows another 2-1 score-line in a shock result the day before, when teenager Leylah Fernandez beat world no.3 and reigning US Open champion, Naomi Osaka.

As with Fernandez, who we backed at tournaments three times earlier this season, at odds of 25/1, 66/1, and 100/1. Rogers has also been a 100/1 selection for us in 2021, albeit stumbling in the 2nd round (WTA Miami), and the very 1st round in Montreal.

North American performers…

On the men’s side, American names Reilly Opelka, Frances Tiafoe, and Jenson Brooksby are all still in the hat and going well in New York. Again, those three chaps have featured in our coverage this season – with youngster Brooksby reaching the ATP Newport final for us at 20/1 in July.

Roared on by the return of home fans at Flushing Meadows, the American players have certainly been inspired by the crowds so far.

The Canadian contingent are also doing very well. With 2019 champ Bianca Andreescu and 18-year-old Leylah Fernandez flying the maple leaf flag in the women’s competition. Along with another young Ones to Watch regular, Felix Auger-Aliassime, in the men’s draw.

From odds of 100/1 at the start of the tournament, British teenager Emma Raducanu is now just 10/1 to all the way. What an incredible story that would be for the 18-year-old. Last summer, in July 2020, we mentioned her during the non-tour ‘Battle of the Brits’ event:

Teenager Raducanu has shown some good form in lower-level events in 2020. And with age very much on her side, Emma could prove one to watch in British women’s tennis in the years to come.

I’m always on the lookout for young players to make a big leap forward. But I didn’t see Raducanu’s game developing as impressively – and as fast – as it has done this year. The next question then is, can she reach a first Grand Slam quarter final (or beyond) this coming week – and hold it together as the pressure increases. When it comes to price here at the US Open, the value has now gone on Emma. It’s exciting times for anyone who got on at 100/1, though.

Another new name on the trophy?

With no.1 Barty out, once again, we are looking at the very real prospect of another first-time Grand Slam winner in the women’s game…

  • The last 18 women’s Grand Slams have produced 12 different winners
  • 10 of those last 18 – and 4 of the last 7 – were first-time Grand Slam winners
  • The last 4 women’s Majors have produced 3 finalists at odds of 100/1+, and one at 50/1

One player that we’ve followed multiple times before AND is in our book for the US Open 2021 is Maria Sakkari. The Greek world no.18 beat Petra Kvitova in straight sets yesterday, and moves into the Last 16, having yet to drop a set.

From odds of 50/1, 40/1 & 33/1 when we backed her in the Outright Winner market on Thursday, Sakkari is now a 20/1 shot.

As we always say with our big-price, Each Way picks – it only takes one…

Perhaps Sakkari will that player for us here in the Big Apple.

We also have Aryna Sabalenka, who is now trading at just 4/1 at best. Back in January, we got behind the Belarusian at early prices of 28/1, 25/1 & 22/1. She went off at a top price of 14/1 last Monday.

As with Sakkari, Sabalenka is looking to make the big Grand Slam breakthrough and reach a first Major final…

That’s also the case for this summer’s Olympic gold medal winner, Belinda Bencic. We’re on the likeable Swiss at 33/1 or 28/1. She’s also through week one without dropping a set. The bookies now make Bencic 12/1 to claim a maiden Grand Slam title next weekend.

Things haven’t gone all our way in week one – far from it. But we have three women through to week two, in good form, and in the book at great prices.

Day 7 match-ups…

The 4th round kicks off from 4pm today, and with quarter-final places now up for grabs, the on-court entertainment looks sure to continue…

First-time career meetings between the likes of Tiafoe and Auger-Aliassime, and Dan Evans v Daniil Medvedev, should be easy on the eye and fun to watch.

In the women’s, an old rivalry resumes, with the head-to-head between Elina Svitolina and Simona Halep intriguingly locked at 5-5.

Set Correct Scores – at 7/1 and 12/1…

There’s a somewhat friendly rivalry elsewhere in this evening’s matches, and it’s one we’ve got a keen interest in…

Our tournament pick Aryna Sabalenka takes on her regular Doubles partner, Elise Mertens. It goes without saying then that these two know each other well. In competition on the Singles tour, Sabalenka leads the series v the Belgian with a convincing 5-2 record – coming out on top in each of their last four meetings.

One thing that catches my eye from that head-to-head list is the prominence of two particular Set score-lines: 6-2, and 7-5:

  • 8 of the 16 completed Sets that Sabalenka & Mertens have played against each other have ended 6-2 or 7-5 (50%)

In the last two rounds here in New York this week, Mertens herself has put together 6-3, 7-5, and 6-2, 6-2 victories.

The last time these two women faced off, on indoor hard courts in Linz last year, Sabalenka won 7-5, 6-2.

The 6-2 is never out of the question with Sabalenka, with the ferocious hitting of the 23-year-old making her capable of wiping out the scoreboard on any given day. Her matches can sometimes be plagued by dips in form or unforced errors, though, and the 7-5 score comes at the end of a set, with a player broken late (at 5-5 or 6-5).

In the Match Winner betting, Sabalenka is the bookies’ 4/11 (1.36) favourite to beat Mertens today.

I want to be on the side of our player here, and one way to do so while also obtaining some attractive odds, is to target the Sabalenka 6-2 and 7-5 Set Correct Scores. With odds of 7/1 and 12/1 available across the 1st Set and 2nd Set markets.

Ones to Watch – US Open 2021

Aryna Sabalenka v Elise Mertens

7.30pm+ UK time – Amazon Prime Video

  • 1st Set Correct Score: Sabalenka 6-2 @ 7/1 Bet365, 6/1 Betfred, 11/2 BetVictor, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, 5/1 William Hill, Boylesports
  • 1st Set Correct Score: Sabalenka 7-5 @ 12/1 William Hill, Betfred, 11/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, 10/1 Boylesports
  • 2nd Set Correct Score: Sabalenka 6-2 @ 5/1 William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports
  • 2nd Set Correct Score: Sabalenka 7-5 @ 11/1 William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 10/1 Boylesports

Note: if you happen to be betting in-play, several bookies will offer the Set Correct Scores, during the match.

I’ll be back on Monday with your Day 8 email, when the 4th round continues.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch