Tennis Betting Advice - September 2022

US Open: Day 7 – Midnight blockbuster in store tonight…

Sunday 4th September 2022

Welcome to Day 7 of your daily US Open service. Play starts at 4pm, UK time…

We’re seeing some long matches at this year’s US Open, and that’s making for some epic late nights for live-action fans like me. I finally ventured up the wooden hill in the early hours of this morning. My wife has bought me some Belgian buns to keep me going. It’s the little things that count.

Yesterday’s 33/1 tournament bet on Qinwen Zheng didn’t last long, with the Chinese teenager not at her best at all in a narrow 6-4, 7-6 defeat to fellow upcoming youngster, Jule Niemeier. Half-a-dozen double faults proved costly on the night. At least the Zheng stake was negated by the Tiebreak in the Match paying out at just over 2/1.

We’ll get chances to back Qinwen Zheng at big prices again, I’m sure. The players we already had in the book did us proud on Saturday…

Cameron Norrie beat the talented but erratic (and fiery) Danish teenager Holger Rune in straight sets, 3-0. Despite not feeling 100% in the opening rounds, Norrie is through to week two and the Last 16, without dropping a set. That’s an impressive and professional base level from our February early-bird 150/1 & 100/1 Outright Winner pick, who went off at 40/1 & 33/1 last week – and is now 25/1 at best.

We got on Danielle Collins at 50/1, 40/1 & 33/1, after she beat Naomi Osaka in the 1st round. The American also won in straight sets last night, 2-0. And like Norrie, Collins is through to the 4th round, Last 16 without dropping a set. Dani is now 16/1 in general, with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook a point higher at 17s.

We enter The Last 16…

The round of Last 16 starts today, and we have a total of five players running for us at exciting Each Way prices…

The tournament started last week with a total of 256 players in the US Open draw, across the men’s & women’s events combined. Overall, I’ve put up 13 players as Ones to Watch Outright Winner prospects – which equates to 5.08% of the total field.

As we enter the Last 16 and week two, we have five players remaining, from the 32 men & women left in the draws. That means our field coverage now stands at 15.63%.

And when you consider the top prices that we’re on at in the outright markets, we have a very healthy interest in this tournament, as we start to reach the business end of proceedings today and tomorrow:

Men’s:
Cameron Norrie 150/1, 100/1, 80/1, 50/1, 40/1
Casper Ruud 66/1, 50/1

Women’s:
Veronika Kudermetova 100/1, 80/1, 70/1, 50/1
Liudmila Samsonova* 80/1, 66/1, 50/1
Danielle Collins 50/1, 40/1, 35/1, 33/1

  • *Samsonova 100/1 has been ‘voided’ by 888 Sport, so as it stands, I’ve taken that top price off the bet record. We await to see how that 888 Sport debacle pans out, but so far it seems members are getting no joy, despite very valid complaints

The Last 16 marks the start of the second week at a Grand Slam. And this round is where things start to really feel ‘big-time,’ with quarter-final places up for grabs…

Midnight blockbuster in the men’s…

There are four men’s matches on the Sunday schedule. Our man Casper Ruud is priced as the Match Winner favourite to beat Corentin Moutet. The occasionally flamboyant young Frenchman will certainly be the noisier of the two on court. But Casper can be expected to knuckle down for the scrap, and hold the more consistent level – even if it takes a while to get the job done.

The other men’s ties on Day 7 also look very much capable of going to four or five sets. Indeed, I reckon that’s the best way to play these three encounters today – backing ‘Both Players to Win a Set’ in each. A bet also known as ‘Over 3.5 Sets’:

  • Pablo Carreno Busta v Karen Khachanov – these two have met 8 times on tour, but never in a best-of-5-set clash at a Grand Slam. The head-to-head is 5-3 to Khachanov, but two-time US Open semi-finalist Carreno-Busta brings the better form this summer, having won the ATP 1000 title in Montreal last month
  • Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Matteo Berrettini – two monster forehands on display here. The big-serving Italian Berrettini is the favourite on hard courts. Pumped-up Spaniard Davidovich Fokina loves a fight, and is no stranger to a long, rollercoaster match. Both men have dropped sets in each of the last two rounds
  • Daniil Medvedev v Nick Kyrgios – the match of the day, surely. This heavyweight clash has been given first-on-court billing on the giant Arthur Ashe stadium court. Which makes it a 7pm prime-time slot in the States, and Midnight for us, UK time. A real blockbuster could be in store here, between two somewhat-reformed bad-boys. It’s the world no.1 taking on the Wimbledon runner-up, and it could be a classic. Medvedev is priced as the favourite. Kyrgios leads the head-to-head, 3-1. Only one of their four previous meetings has been settled in straight sets

The treble on both players to win a set in all three matches pays around 2/1 – 3/1.

If you fancy some bigger odds, you could do down the 5 Sets route.

And for a match that goes right to the wire to be decided by a final-set, first-to-10-points tiebreaker, Bet365’s ‘Go the Distance’ market offers 12/1, 14/1, and 10/1 for those three matches, respectively.

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Ones to Watch picks – US Open:

Pablo Carreno Busta v Karen Khachanov
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Matteo Berrettini
Daniil Medvedev v Nick Kyrgios

  • TREBLE. Both Players to Win a Set: Yes @ 16/5 (4.2) William Hill, 14/5 (3.8) Boylesports, 23/10 (3.3) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 11/5 (3.2) Skybet

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Play starts from 4pm.

P.S

Want to get in touch? Email me at:

tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 8 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch