Tennis Betting Advice - September 2022

US Open: Day 8 - shake the magic eight-ball at 30/1...

Monday 5th September 2022

Welcome to Day 8 of your daily US Open service. Play starts at 4pm, UK time…

Did you get a thunderstorm last night? My darkened living room was illuminated by a series of flashes, gone midnight – and the rain was clattering down in a way that suggested that summer is coming to an end…

The air was also electric in the Arthur Ashe stadium last night, with Nick Kyrgios serving up another sensational performance. Taking out world no.1 and reigning US Open champion Daniil Medvedev with an at-times mind-boggling display of audacious shot-making.

Medvedev managed to get himself one set on the scoreboard though – and that was all we needed to complete our 2/1+ treble on ‘Both Players to Win a Set’ in yesterday’s three nominated men’s 4th round matches. Kyrgios won 3-1. Matteo Berrettini came from a set down to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, 3-2. And Karen Khachanov also came from behind to take out Pablo Carreno Busta, 3-2.

Sunday’s other men’s Last 16 match also saw both players win a set, with our 66/1 tournament outsider Casper Ruud keeping his patience to come through, 3-1, against the volatile and tricky Corentin Moutet.

Ruud moves on to the quarter finals. We have two more big-price Ones to Watch Outright Winner picks looking to follow him today. Cameron Norrie in the men’s, and Danielle Collins in the women’s.

We’ll get them next time…

My 4am+ bedtime last night/ this morning was an unhappy one, with both our massive-price Russian outsiders falling in the Last 16 in the women’s event.

Veronika Kudermetova blinked against a Top 10 opponent, Ons Jabeur.

And Liudmila Samsonova’s 13-match American summer winning streak came to an end, with the younger Russian finally running out of steam. She failed to take one of the eight set points she had in the first set v Ajla Tomljanovic, and cut a tired and dejected figure after that.

Again, the upside is that both Kudermetova and Samsonova can go in the book for us at big odds again in the future. In particular this autumn, keep an eye out for Samsonova on fast indoor hard courts – in the last three years on the lower-tier circuit, she’s made two indoor finals and a semi final in October.

  • One thing we likely won’t be doing is backed Samsonova (or anyone, for that matter) with 888 Sport. The last I heard on the 100/1 ‘voided bet’ issue here at the US Open is that Ones to Watch member Richard H was given a £5 free bet as a ‘gesture.’ One could argue that now that Samsonova is out of the tournament, this is a moot point. But the principal of the matter remains the same: 888 Sport handled this situation very poorly, to put it lightly. We will not forget!

Who’s gonna win, Tom?

Ah, the million-dollar, shake-the-eight-ball question. Who’s going to win?

Here at Ones to Watch, we tend to almost exclusively play the outsiders and underdogs, the youngsters and the up-and-coming names. In the Outright Winner markets, our stance is to back appealing players at attractive Each Way prices…

In that respect, we have Ruud (66/1 – 50/1), Norrie (150/1 – 40/1), and Collins (50/1 – 33/1) flying the flag for us here in New York right now.

I watch a heck of a lot of tennis. And sometimes it would do me well to remember to share in these emails who I simply feel is playing the best right now, regardless of price. In terms of two players in red-hot form so far in the Big Apple this last week or so, two quarter-finalists that it will be hard to beat if they continue in this confident vein of form are Nick Kyrgios in the men’s, and Caroline Garcia in the women’s…

Kyrgios is a best-price 9/4 (3.25) today. Garcia is 9/2 (5.5). I can’t bring myself to fully jump on the wagon at those individual prices. But I do think the double could bring some joy and excitement this week… that men’s & women’s Outright, Win Only combo comes out at just over 16/1 (17.87). Let’s get involved.

Those two have only got one previous Grand Slam final appearance between them, and that was Kyrgios at Wimbledon this summer (and remember, Nick got a ‘bye’ through to the final after Rafael Nadal pulled out injured ahead of the semis). So, there’s still an element of the outsider about that Kyrgios-Garcia combo…

Teenagers primed for the big-time…

Backing the two tournament favourites with multiple Grand Slam silverware already in their cabinet right now would be to take 9/1 for the Rafael Nadal & Iga Swiatek double. I prefer the new-name-on-the-trophy angle – and bigger odds…

Two standout teenagers from our start-of-season Ones to Watch in 2022 report are building momentum nicely here in New York – with vociferous crowds packing-out Flushing Meadows to roar them on…

Those names are Coco Gauff and Carlos Alcaraz. The two youngest players left in the US Open 2022 draws, age 18 and 19 respectively, these two are the real deal, and play with an air of conviction that suggests they are destined for Grand Slam greatness.

The current price for them to both burst through this week and win the US Open is 26/1+. I’m a player at those prices today. Coco and Carlito have real star quality, and look ready to take the next step up very, very soon.


Ones to Watch picks – US Open:

Outright Winner – Men’s & Women’s – Win Only:

  • DOUBLE: Nick Kyrgios & Caroline Garcia @ 16/1 Boylesports, BetVictor, Betway, Unibet, Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook  
  • DOUBLE: Carlos Alcaraz & Coco Gauff @ 30/1 Unibet, 29/1 BetVictor, 28/1 William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 26/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Boylesports



Want to get in touch? Email me at:

I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 9 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch