Tennis Betting Advice - September 2022
US Open: Day 9 - get set for some Tiebreak tennis...
Tuesday 6th September 2022
Welcome to Day 9 of your daily US Open service. Play starts at 5pm, UK time…
The long matches keep on coming…
Three of yesterday’s four women’s matches went to the full three sets, including a tough loss for our 50/1 tournament pick Danielle Collins, who had taken the first set v Aryna Sabalenka.
Across the entire men’s 4th round, four of the eight matches went all the way to five sets. Including a pair of late-night lung-busters last night, with young guns Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz both fighting through to the quarter finals with epic 3-2 wins.
Only one of the eight men’s 4th-round ties was settled in straight sets, and unfortunately for us, that was our 100/1 man Cameron Norrie. Cam went down 3-0 to Andrey Rublev, with the Brit clearly not at his best. Or as data-jargon obsessed commentator Mark Petchey would call it, a performance that was sub-optimal.
The quarter finals start today, and we should strap-in for some more exciting and gruelling encounters…
Ruud v Berrettini, 5pm…
The first match of the day is one to tune-in for if you can…
We’ve got one player left standing from our big-price Each Way picks, and that’s 66/1 shot Casper Ruud (now 12/1). The 23-year-old continues to make history for his country, becoming the first Norwegian man to reach the US Open quarter finals.
Rudd takes on the muscle-bound Italian, Matteo Berrettini. Neither player has been at their absolute best thus far in the tournament, with both men dropping at least one set in each of the last three rounds.
The head-to-head is 3-2 to Casper. Let’s hope the yo-yo sequence of their meetings breaks today, though. So far, the head-to-head has panned out chronologically as: Ruud – Berrettini – Ruud – Berrettini – Ruud. Another win today for Ruud would give us a big-odds player in the semi finals, and that would be a very welcome position to be in.
If we look at the serving stats for this match-up, then we can see that the bookies have got things pretty much covered in their markets for this one…
US Open 2022:
Double Faults
Berrettini 8
Ruud 19
Aces
Berrettini 63
Ruud 26
Head-to-head:
4 out of 5 meetings – Berrettini Most Aces
4 out of 5 meetings – Ruud Most Double Faults
Only two bookies have got Aces and Double Faults markets available as I write – Bet365, and Skybet. Here are the prices at Skybet:
If I was going to point out one of those Serve Markets to follow, it would be Ruud for the Most Double Faults at 8/13 (1.62). Although an odds-on bet that’s only available with two bookies is not something I’m keen to pin down as an account bet for members.
Tiebreak in the Match…
A market with more firms for us to work with is Tiebreak in the Match. We snagged a 2/1+ payout with a ‘Yes’ pick in the women’s at the weekend, and I like that bet again for this evening’s two women’s quarter finals. Along with an Even-money double on a Tiebreak in both of today’s men’s matches.
Last time out just three bookies had this market. Today there are twice as many firms on offer:
Bet365 – ‘Over 0.5 Total Tiebreaks in the Match’
Skybet
William Hill
Boylesports
Unibet – ‘Over 0.5 Total Tiebreaks in the Match’
Betway
As discussed, we’re seeing some long/ close matches here at the US Open 2022. And if the serving form stays high, and the scoreboards stay as close as they have been in previous/ recent matches involving these players. Then the 7-6 tiebreak score could crop up a few times tonight…
My four picks for a Tiebreak in the Match:
Matteo Berrettini v Casper Ruud – 2 of their last 3 meetings have paid out on a tiebreak. And here at the US Open 2022, both men have been involved in tiebreak sets in each of the last 3 rounds
Nick Kyrgios v Karen Khachanov – these two guys have played a total of 8 sets of tennis across their previous meetings, and 6 of those sets have been settled by a tiebreak, 7-6. So far here in New York, 3 of Kyrgios’ 4 matches have featured a tiebreak set
Ons Jabeur v Ajla Tomljanovic – Jabeur has been involved in some tight opening sets, 7-6 in the last round, and also a pair of 7-5 scores last week. Three of Tomljanovic’s 4 matches here have paid out on a tiebreak, which is a noteworthy stat in the women’s game. Both players have big serves
Coco Gauff v Caroline Garcia – this opening Night Session match on Arthur Ashe has the potential to be one of the highlights of the tournament, if not the season. Both women are playing great. Coco and Caro have met twice before, and both matches produced a tiebreak, 7-6 set. Here at the US Open, 3 of Gauff’s last 6 sets have had narrow score-lines: 7-5, 7-5, and 7-6. Tune in at midnight for some top-class entertainment
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Ones to Watch picks – US Open:
Quarter Finals today – first match starts 5pm, UK time
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P.S
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I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 10 email.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson