Tennis Betting Advice - September 2022

US Open: Day 11 - Garcia to make a fast start...

Thursday 8th September 2022

Welcome to Day 11 of your daily US Open service. Play starts at midnight, UK time…

What a match…

Epic stuff last night and this morning, with teenager Carlos Alcaraz saving a match point and coming from two sets to one down to beat Jannik Sinner in a five-set Next Gen classic.

The match lasted over five hours, finishing at 2.50am, New York time. That’s 7.50am over here, meaning you’ve either woken up to a 5/1+ winner from yesterday’s Alcaraz 3-2 Set Betting pick – or maybe you managed to watch the conclusion of the drama before going about your day.

Wheel out the clichés: with 19-year-old Alcaraz and 21-year-old Sinner playing like that – the future of men’s tennis is in safe hands.

Final score: Alcaraz beat Sinner 6-3, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5, 6-3.

The exuberant Spanish teenager moves into the semi finals, and he’s the headline name to take the title. Alcaraz completes the men’s last four line-up along with three players who all went off at massive prices at the start of the tournament…

Whoever wins from here, there will be a new name on the trophy. We’re of course very much hoping it’ll be our 66/1 & 50/1 Each Way pick, Casper Ruud.

Men’s Semi Finals – and Day 1 prices:

Karen Khachanov (300/1) v Casper Ruud (66/1)

Carlos Alcaraz (5/1) v Frances Tiafoe (200/1)

Those matches are coming up on Friday evening. Today is all about the ladies…

Women’s Semi Finals…

For a change, it’s the men’s event and not the women’s that has produced a breakthrough Grand Slam run for a teenager, and the biggest prices in the tournament Outright Winner market.

Here’s how the women’s last four looks:

Caroline Garcia (16/1) v Ons Jabeur (22/1)

Iga Swiatek (4/1) v Aryna Sabalenka (20/1)

Those matches start from midnight tonight, with Caroline Garcia v Ons Jabeur first on court in the Arthur Ashe stadium – and that’s the match I’ve got an angle on today…

Garcia to make a fast start…

Garcia has been ‘this year’s Raducanu’ – blazing through every round without losing a single set, with a laser-like focus and relentless attacking energy.

Caro’ has broken her opponent’s serve first in all five matches so far. As far as I can see from manually scrolling through all of the mainstream bookies’ sites this morning (Oddschecker is again no use), that specific option is only available with one firm. In the ‘Invent a Bet’ list at Boylesports: ‘Garcia to break serve first’ is 10/11 (1.91).

Making a fast start was a trademark of Emma Raducanu’s dominant US Open run twelve months ago, and the in-form Frenchwoman has been following that lead-from-the-front blueprint…

Indeed, in three of her five matches here in New York this fortnight, Garcia has broken her opponent’s serve in their very first service game. The good news is, there is a betting market for this one – see below.

While July’s Wimbledon runner-up Jabeur brings the greater Grand Slam experience, compared to this semi final debut for Garcia. The Tunisian is still yet to win a big one – and we did see her struggle with nerves at times at SW19 this summer. The pressure is off a little bit here in the USA – Ons said that maybe she’d wanted that Wimbledon trophy a bit too much. But still, this is a massive occasion for both players.

We’ll wait and see if the old mental demons resurface for Garcia. No sign of her choking so far. And whether or not Jabeur finds a way to stop the French procession in the end, I think a fast start for Caroline will definitely be the plan: her true game-style is all about being the front-foot aggressor.

Here’s the betting market we’re after at Betway (see below for more bookies):

Ons Jabeur First Service Game Winner


Ones to Watch picks – US Open:

Caroline Garcia v Ons Jabeur – midnight, UK time

  • Ons Jabeur First Service Game Winner: Caroline Garcia @ 2/1 (3.0) Betway, 9/5 (2.8) BetVictor

Also known as:

First Ons Jabeur Service Game – Winner: Caroline Garcia @ 7/4 (2.75) Bet365.

Ons Jabeur 1st Set – 1st Service Game: Ons Jabeur to be Broken @ 7/4 (2.75) William Hill.

Player B to Win First Service Game: No @ 13/8 (2.63) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook.

Alternatively, you could bet in-play, backing Garcia to win the first game that Jabeur serves.



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I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 12 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch