Tennis Betting Advice - September 2022
"What's going on Tom???!!!"
Wednesday 28th September 2022
L.J writes in to say, “What’s going on Tom???!!!”
I guess that’s a fair enough reaction to a run of six 1st round losses in a row. We’ve got one player left standing this week…
In Tallinn, Estonia, our 25/1 pick Linda Noskova is due out on court around lunchtime today – looking to progress to what would be a second successive quarter final on the WTA Tour. Considering Linda is just 17 years of age, we have to manage expectations for the Czech teenager. But Noskova certainly looks an exciting talent. Let’s see how the youngster gets on today, taking on a higher-ranked and more experienced opponent, Beatriz Haddad Maia.
In response to our current losing streak, my stance remains steadfast. The Ones to Watch approach is always going to yield more losing bets than winners. But at the attractive prices we go for in the tournament Outright Winner markets, backing noteworthy outsiders and promising newcomers, the wait for a winner is always worth it. Hold tight. Experience tells us that the next big win is just around the corner.
As I reported (or lamented) the other week, we’ve seen 10 out of 11 Ones to Watch finalists beaten in the trophy match this season. That’s 10 Each Way, half-the-odds payouts – where we were tantalising close to landing some full jackpots. The tide will turn.
Big-price incentives…
I track the prices of tournament winners across the ATP & WTA Tours, and the four Grand Slams. I’ve been doing that for over five years now. The 2022 numbers are right on par with the five-year average – with around 30% of events producing a 50/1+ finalist from the day-one odds, and 12% featuring a 100/1+ finalist.
Those are exciting figures, and that’s why we go after the ‘long shots’ in the weekly tournament markets. The big prices really do come in. Not every time. But plenty enough times to make it very much worth our while targeting the outsiders and underdogs.
As I always say: we back appealing outsiders and attractive Each Way prices. And we’ll continue to do so.
Three 500-grade events next week…
I’ve just updated the calendar for next week, which sees us move into October with four tournaments on the schedule – including three prestigious 500-grade events. We’ll be on the hunt for the big-odds contenders in these:
Date – Event – Surface:
WTA 500 Ostrava, Czech Rep – Agel Open 2022 – Indoor Hard
WTA 250 Monastir, Tunisia – Jasmin Open Monastir – Hard
ATP 500 Astana, Kazakhstan – Astana Open – Indoor Hard
ATP 500 Tokyo, Japan – Rakuten Japan Open Tennis Championships – Hard
P.S
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson