Tennis Betting Advice - September 2023
US Open Day 6: One of these guys is going through at big odds...
Saturday 2nd September 2023
Welcome to your US Open Daily Service – Day 6. Play starts in New York at 4pm, UK time…
Middle Saturday – Outright update…
Good morning. Our main Ones to Watch business takes place in the tournament Outright Winner markets. Where we go for appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices…
We’ve made it to the Middle Saturday with 7 of our 10 big-odds picks still very much in the running…
Things get both serious and exciting from here on in. With big matches, high-pressure moments, and some intriguing potential match-ups in the draw.
Let’s check in on our players…
Men:
Taylor Fritz – won 3 out of 3 matches 3-0 so far. The world no.9 and American no.1 is through to the Last 16, where he’ll play world no.128 Dominic Stricker for a place in the US Open quarter finals.
Jannik Sinner – won 2 out of 2 matches 3-0. The 22-year-old world no.6 is priced as the clear odds-on favourite to beat 38-year-old Stan Wawrinka today. Although taking on the former US Open champion is never an easy task on the big stage. There is a feeling that this year could be Sinner’s moment to really shine in New York.
Women:
Belinda Bencic – another win last night, this time in 3 sets. Through to the Last 16 without yet playing her best tennis. Either her days here are numbered – or Belinda is going to hit form and take flight in week 2. Ever the optimist, I’m going for the latter. Her next opponent will be Sorana Cirstea, who just knocked out one of the big-name favourites, Elena Rybakina.
Liudmila Samsonova – our Russian dark horse takes on American hope Madison Keys today. The home player will get all the headlines, whatever happens. I have more faith in Samsonova holding her game together though. Keys has faltered so many times over the years, making her hard to trust.
Elina Svitolina – the resurgent Ukrainian takes on the current leading American woman, Jessica Pegula. Jess is the favourite, but will also shoulder all the pressure. As discussed at Wimbledon, Pegula has a bad habit of failing to get over the line in really big matches at Grand Slams. I’m happy to have the underdog Svitolina in our book of Outright outsiders.
Marketa Vondrousova – the smart & classy Czech faces a potentially tricky test in the night match against the in-form but not fully reliable Ekaterina Alexandrova. Again, in the mental strength stakes, I’m happy to be on our player.
Marie Bouzkova – our 100/1+ pick selection is something of a Czech ‘wildcard’ selection for us; a player with the talent to do something special. Whether or not it’s at this tournament, we don’t know. But Marie is a worthy contestant to try and trouble world no.5 Ons Jabeur tonight. That match is due on Arthur Ashe at Midnight, UK time.
Playing the prices, navigating the markets…
There’s a variety of prices available with the bookmakers right now, with some big differentials. For example, LiveScoreBet are as short as 10/1 for Fritz, with Unibet at 14s. While Sporting Index Fixed Odds (them again) have the American out at 66/1. And for a bookie more likely to stand a proper bet, Skybet are 50/1, albeit now with reduced Each Way terms of 1/3 odds for 1-2 places in the men’s market.
Firms still offering the standard and preferred pre-tournament place terms of 1/2 odds include Bet365, William Hill, Unibet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway.
It’s not all bad if you take 1/3 odds Each Way terms. If the Outright price is big enough, you can still beat the Win + Place return combo of a standard 1/2 odds EW bet.
For example…
As I write, Alex De Minaur is 150/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook – with place terms of 1/3 odds for reaching the final. The Australian is 100/1 with Bet365 and Betway, with the better place terms of 1/2 odds. In that example, the Each Way part is worth 50/1 in both cases (150/1 divided by 3 = 50/1; 100/1 divided by 2 = 50/1).
Still with me? Because now things shift again…
As I’ve mentioned before with one or two of our tournament picks, the very best potential returns can sometimes be garnered by making a bet package out of the top Outright, Win Only price – along with the standout odds for a single on the player To Reach the Final…
And if we carry on with De Minaur’s prices. Odds of 80/1 and 66/1 are available To Reach the Final – both of which beat the 50/1 place payout prices mentioned above…
Hey, it’s almost like the bookies don’t want us to find the best odds…
That’s why I spend so long on this stuff. The quest for winners, for profits, for value, and for worthwhile outsider-betting opportunities, is a long one. But it’s ultimately a fun battle to be in. And right now, I’m pulling late nights to try and get us a Big One over the line in the Big Apple…
One of these guys is going through at big odds…
I mention ALEX DE MINAUR’S price not just for illustration…
As a teenager, the Aussie was on our Ones to Watch list back in 2019. If you’ve got a few minutes spare this weekend and fancy a read, you can view that 2019 report here (it’s signed off by Tom Wilson, which was my pen name back then).
Now 24 years old and ranked no.13 in the world, De Minaur is having the summer of his life on the North American hard courts. Reaching the ATP 250 final at Los Cabos in August. Then backing that up with a run to a debut Masters 1000 final, in Toronto. Alex beat the likes of Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, and Cameron Norrie in Canada. Players who are all still in contention here at the US Open this weekend. If he gets through today, De Minaur is seeded to meet Medvedev again…
De Minaur’s lack of big-name status – he seems a down-to-earth, unglamourous kind of guy – means he often gets overlooked, or doesn’t quite get the credit he deserves. He is one of the fastest and fittest guys on the tour, and makes up for what he may slightly lack in stature, serve or power weapons with a never-say-die, run-all-day approach. And even that description might be a little patronising; Alex is six-foot tall, and certainly has some zest in his on-the-run shots. In short, this is a young man fully emersed in the sport (including a pro tennis player girlfriend, Katie Boulter), playing his best-ever tennis this summer. Odds of 100/1+ carry a bit of outsider appeal for us…
Today’s opponent is the 6’6 NICOLAS JARRY. The big-serving Chilean has gone in the book for us a couple of times this season, including as a 125/1 pick at the French Open, where he made the Last 16. Age 27, Jarry is closing in on a career-best ranking, sitting at no.25 and with the Top 20 in his sights. He’s one of those players who seems to have improved his game and results since becoming a father. And with a second child having arrived this year, Nicolas certainly impressed me when I saw him play in the flesh at Wimbledon in July. He pushed world no.1 and eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz hard, showcasing not only his menacing serve, but also some dangerous, heavy groundstrokes.
A completely rank outsider in the betting here. I had Jarry in my notes pre-tournament (and also in that Ones to Watch report back in 2019). He’s improved this year. He’s available at 500/1 and 450/1. There’s very little downside to a giant-odds selection like this, if played to small stakes. And like we discussed the other day, this is one of those situations where backing both players might be the best tactic, even if it initially sounds counter-productive. A big server like Jarry could cause problems to someone like Medvedev in the next round…
And the US Open has a bit of history for a big-serving underdog getting to the final. The 6’8 Kevin Anderson did it as a 150/1 shot in 2017. And 6’5 Matteo Berrettini reached the semi finals at big prices in 2019.
With De Minaur and Jarry playing each other today for a place in the Last 16. I’m proposing a small stake on both, at triple figure prices: if you’d usually have 1-pt EW on an Outright Winner pick, then go 0.5-pt EW here. Or 0.5 pt each to Win, and To Reach the Final.
One of these men is going through to Week 2 at big prices…
Serve it up at 4/1…
What’s more, we can look to cover our outlay here by backing Over 1.5 Tiebreaks in today’s match. Both previous meetings between Jarry and De Minaur have paid out on this bet, with two 7-6 sets in both encounters.
And considering those were best-of-three sets contests, and today is best-of-five, then there’s more scope for getting a couple of tiebreaks.
In the Total Tiebreaks in the Match markets, Over 1.5 is available at around 4/1.
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Ones to Watch picks – US Open:
See above for full details and more bookies
Men’s Outright Winner:
To Reach the Final:
Nicolas Jarry v Alex De Minaur – tonight, approx. 10pm:
Tiebreak in the Match markets also available with William Hill and Unibet. Also available in-play (Set Correct Scores: 7-6).
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You can watch the US Open live on Sky Sports. Live streaming is also available with the likes of Bet365 and Skybet.
I’ll be back on Sunday morning with your Day 7 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone