Tennis Betting Advice - September 2023

US Open Day 11: Women's Semi Finals tonight...

Thursday 7th September 2023

Welcome to your US Open Daily Service – Day 11…

Yesterday’s saver bet on Madison Keys to beat Marketa Vondrousova proved the correct move to make. And that’s about all that went right for us.

Unlike at Wimbledon this summer, we won’t be leaving New York with fond memories of a big winner. You can’t land a big one every time. But that doesn’t stop me feeling the burn when a tournament hits the skids.

That might sound a bit down in the dumps. It’s probably the late nights talking a bit, too. I always say, staying up into the early hours to watch the tennis stings more when our bet loses.

Sometimes you just have to take your hat off to the better player. And to honest, over the last couple of days in the quarter finals, the likes of Novak Djokovic and Aryna Sabalenka have proved vastly superior to our selections. With Taylor Fritz and Qinwen Zheng both comprehensively beaten.

Of course, there should be no great surprise in those two results on their own. After all, in next week’s updated men’s and women’s rankings, both Djokovic and Sabalenka will be installed as respective world no.1’s.

On Day 1 of the US Open last week, Novak went of as the 11/10 (2.1) favourite for the men’s title. In the women’s, Sabalenka was 5/1 at best. In comparison, we were on Fritz at 66/1 – 33/1, and got on Zheng at 50/1 – 33/1. We play the big prices here at Ones to Watch

As discussed yesterday, it’s a long-term game. And as a great, now sadly-departed friend of mine used to say: there’s always tomorrow…

On the tennis betting front, that’s certainly true. The WTA Tour picks straight back up with two tournaments next week. Including the San Diego Open, an event which saw a 50/1 qualifier reach the final last season.

The research never stops. I’m always on the quest to find us a big-price opportunity...

The analysis continues…

I’ve spent a couple of afternoons this week catching up on admin that I fell behind on when my new baby daughter arrived this summer. I’m getting there!

The latest document I’ve been working on is my spreadsheet of tournament Outright Winner prices. I’ll report back on the findings in more detail next week. But it’s already thrown up some interesting big-odds ammo for us to consider…

For example:

  • 3 WTA tournaments this year have been won by a Lucky Loser. That’s a player who originally lost in the qualifying rounds… only to then be granted a free pass into the main draw thanks to someone pulling out injured. With the tournament-winning odds of those 3 unlikely outsider stories coming out at 33/1 and 50/1
  • Since Wimbledon this summer, there have been 10 WTA tournaments played – producing 3 maiden WTA Tour winners, and 3 first-time finalists. With odds of 33/1 and 50/1 on the table for those silverware-lifting newcomers

Finding big-odds patterns and angles like those is endlessly fascinating to me – and you don’t tend to hear anyone else talking about this stuff from a betting perspective.

I’ve got lots more to tell you about on that front…

And while the US Open is the final Major of the year. The 2023 season still has lots of juice left in it…

As well as weekly ATP & WTA 250 or 500-grade tournaments. There are a couple of big-money, ‘Masters’ 1000 events still to come, too. Including the tours returning to China for the first time since the pandemic, with the ATP Shanghai Masters and WTA Beijing coming up…

Along with the traditional men’s autumn trip to the Paris Masters – scene of a 33/1 winner for us from Ones to Watch youngster Holger Rune last year.

Lots to look forward to. And we’re not done with New York yet…

Aces High for Keys…

It’s the women’s semi finals today. Play starts at midnight, UK time…

The schedule is:

Coco Gauff v Karolina Muchova

Followed by:

Madison Keys v Aryna Sabalenka

It’s the second match that I’m most interested in. With the stats and head-to-head formbook pointing to Madison Keys as the pick for the Most Aces

Keys has landed this bet in 3 out of 3 previous meetings with Sabalenka. With the American posting the following ace tallies:

Wimbledon 2023, grass – Most Aces: Keys 5-2

WTA Berlin 2021, grass – Most Aces: Keys 8-5

WTA Cincinnati 2018, hard – Most Aces: Keys 8-6

The US Open 2023 tournament stats show that Keys and Sabalenka are tied on 20 aces each so far. With the American the slight underdog in today’s Most Aces market, Madison is the bet for us here.

Once again, Oddschecker is no use at all for us finding our bet. See below for bookie info, with the chance of more firms pricing up later today…

US Open 2023:

https://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/extrastats/index.html

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Ones to Watch picks – US Open:

See above for full details

Madison Keys v Aryna Sabalenka

Match scheduled for 1.30am+, UK time

Other bookies to check with for Aces markets today/ tonight: Skybet, Unibet, Boylesports, Betway, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred.

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You can watch the US Open live on Sky Sports. Live streaming is also available with bookies including Bet365 and Skybet.

I’ll be back tomorrow for the men’s semi finals…

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P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch