Tennis Betting Advice - September 2023
US Open Day 12: Men's Semi Final analysis at 50/1...
Friday 8th September 2023
Welcome to your US Open Daily Service – Day 12…
7-6 in the decider…
I’ve been on the lookout for Tiebreaks for a while now. With the new Grand Slam rules meaning all the Majors now use a ‘match tiebreak’ at 6-6 in the final set. Rather than keep on playing until someone wins by two clear games, as used to be the way. There is an increased chance of seeing a tiebreak in the final set.
The women’s event threw up a double-tiebreak result last night, including one of those match deciders…
With the ding-dong semi final between Madison Keys and Aryna Sabalenka resolved by a final-set ‘breaker. Incoming world no.1 Sabalenka digging deep to somehow come through after a ‘bagel’ whitewash in the first set, 0-6, 7-6, 7-6…
The questions will pop up again about Keys’ ability to get the job done in the highest-pressure situations. As a youngster, it was expected by many in the sport that Maddie would go on to be a regular Grand Slam title contender. It hasn’t quite panned out that way for the American. Playing a similar brand of all-or-nothing howitzer tennis to Petra Kvitova – but lacking the mental edge that the Czech possesses. While Petra’s silverware cabinet boasts two Wimbledon trophies, Keys’ has no Major titles to her name.
That women’s semi-final score-line prompted me to look into the US Open 2023 Tiebreaks stats…
‘Over 1.5 Tiebreaks in the Match’ is one of the angles I’ve had on the radar recently. Keys v Sabalenka was just the third women’s match to produce two or more 7-6 sets this past fortnight in New York (2.38%).
In comparison, in the men’s event, where they play best-of-five sets instead of three. And tend to serve bigger. The list shows 12 matches with 2+ Tiebreaks so far (9.68%)…
Men’s Semi Finals tonight…
Looking ahead to this evening’s men’s semi finals. I’m going against the general formbook for the four guys involved (for example, Alcaraz and Medvedev have met three times, and are yet to play a single tiebreak against each other)…
Sometimes in this game, you have to go against the grain. I’d say it’s the mentality that makes Ones to Watch the service it is. When I’m wrong, I have to take it on the chin – hard. But who said landing big prices was going to be easy…
Today’s semi-final schedule:
The bookies now make an Alcaraz-Djokovic final short odds-on, at 4/11 (1.36). That pairing has been the favourite since Day 1. If we see a repeat of this summer’s Wimbledon and Cincinnati finals between the world’s Top 2, it’ll certainly be a crowd-pleaser.
Then again, the US fans and broadcasters would love to see an American in the final…
The home crowd will get to cheer on Coco Gauff in the women’s final this weekend. Ben Shelton flies the US flag tonight. I think young Ben can contribute to some tiebreak action today. And the exciting 20-year-old left-hander is One to Watch for big titles in years to come.
My take on these New York stats…
Shelton is ranked no.1 at the US Open 2023 for Most Aces (76), and also for the Fastest Serve (149 mph).
Djokovic is such a great returner, he can make a mockery of a big server, of course. Novak is ranked 3rd in the tournament for 1st Serve Receiving Points Won, and 2nd for Break Points Won.
In the other match-up, Medvedev is up there in the same categories as Djokovic. With the Russian 1st for Break Points Won, and 2nd for 1st Serve Receiving Points Won. Daniil has also been responsible for two of the four Longest Rallies of the tournament.
Djokovic, Medvedev, and Alcaraz have all won this title before. Alcaraz is the defending US Open champion. The 20-year-old Spanish superstar showcases his stats in a more all-round way. For example, Carlos is ranked joint-1st for 2nd Serve Points Won this fortnight. This kid knows how to win important points.
They say you can bend stats to meet any argument. To me, all of the above suggests that we’re going to see a rally-fest between Alcaraz and Medvedev, with the magic moments more likely to come from the Spanish favourite. And a case of Djokovic looking to absorb and re-direct the power of Shelton. No-one in the game is better at turning defence into attack than Novak.
Add in the fact that, using today’s prices as an example, the ‘Over 1.5 Tiebreaks in the Match’ angle would’ve proved profitable overall when applies across the recent men’s Grand Slam hard-court semi finals:
In short, I like the Over 1.5 Tiebreaks prices right now. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to witness a couple of 7-6 sets in tonight’s big matches.
If you’re with me, the bookies to go to for this market are Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, and Bet365. With the advice the same as before: two singles, and a smaller stake on the big-odds double (eg. 0.5 point).
If you prefer more modest prices with and a less speculative approach…
Consider the standard Tiebreak in the Match market (or Over 0.5 Tiebreaks). Paying out on one 7-6 set in the match. Skybet are 5/4 (2.25) for Shelton v Djokovic, and 8/11 (1.73) for Alcaraz v Medvedev. Other firms such as William Hill and Boylesports also have this market.
And at the giant-odds end of the spectrum…
Sky are 250/1 each for a player to win 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 (‘Tiebreak Triumph’ market).
Bet365’s ‘Go the Distance’ option pays out on a 5th-Set Tiebreaker, with 25/1 for Shelton-Djokovic, and 14/1 for Alcaraz-Medvedev.
Grab the popcorn – and enjoy tonight’s tennis…
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Ones to Watch picks – US Open:
See above for full details
Ben Shelton v Novak Djokovic – 8pm, UK time
Carlos Alcaraz v Daniil Medvedev – Midnight
And:
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Play starts from 8pm.
You can watch the US Open live on Sky Sports. Live streaming is also available with bookies including Bet365 and Skybet.
I’ll be back on Saturday for the women’s final, Gauff v Sabalenka.
Also on the radar…
A couple of big Ones to Watch prices in the pipeline for next year’s Majors. And two WTA tournaments on the calendar for us next week.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone