Tennis Betting Advice - September 2023
US Open Day 13: Women's Final - and 2 big prices for 2024...
Saturday 9th September 2023
Welcome to your US Open Daily Service – Day 13…
A game of prices…
We got a tiebreak in each match last night. Not the Over 1.5 we were looking for. If Ben Shelton had been able to take his chances in the third set v Novak Djokovic, or Carlos Alcaraz had been able to push Daniil Medvedev to five sets, then who knows…
That Medvedev win was proof once again that the shortest-priced favourites don’t always win. While I’ll be the first to admit that none of my 50/1 or 100/1 outsiders have made it to the finals on this occasion. Ever the optimist, I’ll take a scrap of solace in having avoided the ‘TV pundit prediction’ that had been on the table the whole tournament. There will be no Djokovic v Alcaraz final here.
That leads me on to prices. Which are of course a huge part of the Ones to Watch service. In the Name the Finalists market, Djokovic-Alcaraz was the pre-tournament market leader at 15/8 (2.88), and dropped to short odds-on at 4/11 (1.36) ahead of the semi finals.
And even if we look at prices that may well pay out as winners this weekend – and this is where you may or may not agree with me, depending on your stance. The likes of Coco Gauff, Aryna Sabalenka, Djokovic, and Medvedev all went off at single-figure quotes on Day 1 of the tournament. Prices that almost instantly rule them out of my Ones to Watch selection process.
As I’ve said before, I’m sure you didn’t join this service for me to tell you that some of the world’s Top 10 players might get to the finals…
Keep looking forwards…
What we’re all about is getting the names in the book at big prices, before they strike it big in the Grand Slams…
Gauff featured in our Ones to Watch pre-season report in 2020…
Sabalenka and Medvedev were both on our 2019 list.
When Gauff reached her first Major final, at the French Open 2022, she went off at 28/1. Here is New York this fortnight, Coco started as one of the favourites, at 7/1. With Sabalenka at 5/1.
When Medvedev first reached the US Open final in 2019, he’d started that year at 100/1 in the ante-post betting. He was 10/1 at best last month.
And when Djokovic won his first Grand Slam title, at the Australian Open back in 2008 – he went off as a 33/1 outsider. Novak started the US Open 2023 as the 11/10 (2.1) favourite.
So, the quest is this: we look to get on the next big thing, at the biggest prices – while we still can…
We’ve done it several times before. Iga Swiatek winning her first ‘Slam at the French Open at 100/1, for example. And we’ll do it again…
Two big prices for the next ‘Slam…
Today, two names and two prices that standout for the next Major. The first Grand Slam tournament of next year. The Australian Open 2024:
Linda Noskova @ 100/1
Ben Shelton @ 200/1
Those two triple-figure prices are with Betfred. This is a case of, get the big price in the book today, if you can. Noskova and Shelton are two names sure to feature regularly in our Ones to Watch selections in the months and years to come. Having already been in our book on a couple of occasions this past year or so…
For example, back in January, I named Linda Noskova as an early-bird pick for this year’s Australian Opena at 150/1. The Czech teenager went on to lose in Qualifying. That shouldn’t be a problem in 2024, with the 18-year-old having reached a new career-high ranking of no.41 in the world.
We were also on Linda as a Ones to Watch Czech pick here at the US Open. She gave a good account of herself, taking 2022 runner-up and world no.5 Ons Jabeur to three sets. This teenager is one to keep on our side…
On hard courts, Noskova has shown her talent this season. Reaching the WTA Adelaide final, her maiden championship match on the senior tour – only beaten by a surging Sabalenka, who went on to lift the Aussie Open after that. Young Linda then followed up that result with more hard-court performances on note: including a runner-up finish at WTA Prague, and making the Last 16 at the WTA 1000 Cincinnati Masters – only stopped by eventual champ, Gauff.
If we consider that two of those defeats came against the women lining up in tonight’s US Open final, Gauff & Sabalenka, then I’d say the clues are there that Noskova is getting ready to breakout and strike it big in 2024.
We can also get price on our side in the men’s game, with 20-year-old Ben Shelton showing more than once already that he has the pedigree & potential to compete for Grand Slam titles…
Coming off an impressive semi-final run here in New York, that US Open semi goes on the young American’s remarkable fledgling Grand Slam CV. With the energetic left-hander having made a breakthrough quarter-final run at the Aussie Open this year. Ben has a taste for the bigtime. You can’t teach that attitude. I’m impressed by what I’ve seen so far.
The advice today: take the best anet-post prices you can get for Noskova and Shelton for the Australian Open 2024. The one caveat with those 100/1 and 200/1 Betfred quotes is that the market is ‘All in, compete or not.’ But the triple-figure odds are worth the risk of injury striking between now and next January.
Gauff v Sabalenka tonight…
Back to the US Open now, and this evening’s women’s final between Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka…
Teenager Gauff is going for her first Grand Slam title, and will have the American crowd right behind her. Sabalenka won her maiden Major in Australia this year, and the Belarusian goes off as the slight favourite today at 5/6 (1.83). Coco is Evens (2.0).
There are plenty of potential betting angles here, with the prospect of a great match in store – played in a noisy and emotional atmosphere…
Three Sets… a Player to Win from Behind after Losing the First Set… the 2-1 Set Betting Score… they are all options, with a tight and/ or rollercoaster scoreboard a distinct possibility.
The head-to-head reads 3-2 to Coco. But on North American hard courts, the record between these two is 4-4 for Sets Won. This really could be close…
Key stat:
Those 7-5 and 7-6 (Tiebreak) scores are my guide for what to look out for in tonight’s match.
A Tiebreak in the Match (or ‘Over 0.5 Tiebreaks’) is available at 2/1 (3.0).
Bet365 go Over 22.5 Total Games at 5/6 (1.83), with William Hill a game better at Over 21.5, albeit at a slightly shorter price of 4/6 (1.67).
1st Set Total Games: Over 10.5 is 11/4 (3.75) with Bet365.
In the 1st Set Correct Score market, Gauff 7-5, Gauff 7-6, Sabalenka 7-5, and Sabalenka 7-6 are all available at around 8/1 – 14/1. With some firms offering a market for the 2nd Set Scores, too.
With a feeling that this might just be Coco’s chance to shine and take a first Grand Slam title, I like the 7-5 and 7-6 scores for Gauff. With the advice being to split a stake across the 1st & 2nd Set Scores for those options. Eg. 0.5 point on each of the four scores listed below.
_____________________________________________
Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Australian Open 2024 – Women’s
(Also available: 66/1 Bet365, 50/1 William Hill, BetVictor, Betway.)
Australian Open 2024 – Men’s
(Also available: 66/1 William Hill, Betway.)
US Open Women’s Final – Coco Gauff v Aryna Sabalenka:
Set Correct Score markets also available with bookies such as Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet, Boylesports – and in-play.
_____________________________________________
Play starts from 9pm.
You can watch the US Open live on Sky Sports. Live streaming is also available with bookies including Bet365 and Skybet.
I’ll be back on Sunday for the men’s final.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone