Tennis Betting Advice - September 2024

One to Watch in Mexico at 25/1...

Monday 9th September 2024

Ones to Watch is all about backing big-price outsiders…

We’ve hit on one of those in three of this year’s four Grand Slams. Collecting Each Way returns from the biggest tournaments in the sport…

At the start of the year, 33/1 Ones to Watch name Qinwen Zheng got to the Australian Open’s women’s final for us.

Followed by 150/1 Jasmine Paolini at the French Open, finishing runner-up for a big, half-the-odds payout.

And then, just last week in New York, 66/1 Each Way pick Taylor Fritz was runner-up at the men’s US Open.

In each case, our underdog pick was well beaten in the final. With pre-tournament short-price favourites and top-ranked opponents doing what they are supposed to do…

The reigning champion Aryna Sabalenka beat 33/1 Qinwen Zheng in Australia. Sabalenka started the tournament at 5/1

Women’s world no.1 Iga Swiatek beat 150/1 Paolini in Paris. Swiatek was odds-on for the title on day one of the tournament, at just 4/6

And last night, men’s no.1 Jannik Sinner defeated 66/1 Fritz. Sinner’s starting price last month was 3/1 in general…

There’s the black and white: trophies won by 4/6, 3/1, and 5/1 favourites. Or half-the-odds Each Way payouts from 33/1, 66/1, and 150/1 outsiders? I know which prices I’d rather be on…

The tennis rolls straight back on this week, with two women’s tournaments on our radar…

One to Watch in Mexico at 25/1…

We’ll start the week by taking 25/1 Each Way for one of our familiar, smaller-event picks: Camila Osorio

The Colombian shortened her playing name a while ago, probably to the relief of many websites and writers. Maria Camila Osorio Serrano these days appears on most bookie lists as simply: Camila Osorio.

The tournament we’re looking at here is the 500-grade, WTA Guadalajara Open in Mexico, on outdoor hard courts. Play starts in the 1st round today, from 4pm UK time.

  • Osorio plays late tonight, taking on world no.102 Hailey Baptiste. Osorio has beaten Baptiste 2 times out of 2 on hard courts, including here at Guadalajara in 2022

Currently ranked no.80, but previously as high as no.33 in the world. Camila is best known for her clay-court prowess. But as I’ve said before, the 22-year-old is a real fighter, often comes out on the right end of a three-set scrap, and always backs herself…

It’s a great winning attitude to have, and often pays dividends – especially when she manages to avoid injuries, and conditions suit…

Much of Osorio’s winning is done in central and south America. Her two WTA singles titles to date both came at her home event in Bogota, Colombia (on clay). Including a title there earlier this season. Camila is also a previous finalist here in Mexico on hard courts, at WTA Monterrey.

With a less-than-scary field assembled in Guadalajara this week, coming as it does so soon after the US Open. A player like Osorio, at a price like 25/1, in a tournament like this, is ‘one to watch’…

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Ones to Watch picks:

See above for full details

WTA Guadalajara Guadalajara Open Akron presented by Santander

Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

  • Camila Osorio @ 25/1 Skybet, Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet, Boylesports, Betway 

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Play starts from 4pm UK time. Bookies will take down Outright Winner markets during each day’s matches.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch