Tennis Betting Advice - September 2024

Ones to Watch in Tokyo and Beijing - at 33/1 and 50/1...

Wednesday 25th September 2024

We’ve got three tournaments on the agenda this week. And with Thursday’s play beginning from 3am, UK time. That means we need to strike our bets this evening, so I’ll get straight down to the advice…

Stick with Jasmine and Diana…

The women’s China Open has produced two big-odds finalists from its last three instalments – paying 33/1 and 50/1…

Two of our best-performing 2024 Ones to Watch players standout as outsider picks at odds of 28/1 and 33/1 for this year’s WTA Beijing event: Jasmine Paolini, and Diana Shnaider

The former has already won one of these high-ranking, 1000-grade ‘Masters’ events on hard courts this season, with Paolini triumphant in Dubai in February. The Italian, now up to a career-high of no.5 in the world, has reach the semi finals or better in three of her last five rankings events.

While young gun Shnaider continues to impress, taking it to all-comers with her aggressive yet impressively varied game style. The 20-year-old Russian is also rocking a career-best ranking right now, at no.16 in the world. Diana has also got to the semis or better in three of her last five tour events. Including a maiden Masters-level semi final, on hard courts in Toronto last month.

Musetti can mix it with the best…

In the men’s China Open, where several of the biggest names have assembled for ATP Beijing this week and next. The underdog price that jumps out for me is Lorenzo Musetti at 33/1+

The super-talented Italian and his luscious one-handed backhand have been in our Ones to Watch notes for some time now. He’s still only 22 years of age though, and the best looks still to come. Lorenzo is having a very good season – and there’s still time to make it a great one. He made the final last week in Chengdu. And can continue to prove that he has better hardcourt credentials than some give him credit for, as he stays in China for an even bigger event this week.

The current world no.19, Musetti’s summer featured a semi-final run on grass at Wimbledon, and a bronze medal on clay at the Olympics. He hasn’t won a title since ATP Napoli on hard courts, nearly two years ago. But injury intervened during that time. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Musetti on his day is good enough to beat anyone. And the players in the locker-room know it.

Alex on the rise…

Last of all on our whistle-stop trawl through the big-odds candidates in these Asian tournaments. Alex Michelsen at 50/1 for ATP Tokyo has some appealing outsider credentials in my eyes…

Last year, Ben Shelton won his maiden ATP title here in Tokyo. Michelsen’s rise has been less spectacular, but there are certainly similarities between these two hard-working, big-serving American youngsters…

Michelsen has been knocking on the door for a debut trophy win – three times a runner-up on the ATP Tour so far. Including twice this season, with the most recent second-place prize coming on hard courts at Winston-Salem in late August. As with Shelton, maybe the trophy-winning breakthrough will come outside of the States…

Michelsen ended 2022 ranked outside the world’s top 500. He finished last season by surging into the top 100. And right now, he’s crept inside the top 50 (currently no.49).

Alex is one to watch, and let’s follow him while we’re still getting big prices. There have already been 11 first-time ATP title winners on the tour this year. If 20-year-old Michelsen can see off an out-of-form Stefanos Tsitsipas in his opener this week, then we could be looking at another maiden trophy winner here in Japan. I’d say it’s more likely than odds of 50/1 suggest, anyway…

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Ones to Watch picks:

See above for full details

Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

WTA Beijing – China Open

  • Jasmine Paolini @ 28/1 Skybet, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, 25/1 Betfred, BetVictor, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 
  • Diana Shnaider @ 40/1 Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet, 35/1 BetVictor, 33/1 Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred

ATP Beijing – China Open

  • Lorenzo Musetti @ 40/1 Bet365, 35/1 BetVictor, 33/1 general 

ATP Tokyo – Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships

  • Alex Michelsen @ 50/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, 40/1 Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet 

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Play starts from 3am, UK time. You can follow these Asian tournaments live on Sky Sports – with many matches still going at more sociable hours, breakfast time and beyond…

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch