Tennis Betting Advice - September 2025
WTA Seoul: One to Watch this week at 22/1...
Monday 15th September 2025
I’ve been indulging in some familiar self-flaggelation today…
Ah, the ones that got away…
Looking back at last week’s Ones to Watch content, as well as my unpublished notes (not to mention the daily tennis narrative that runs in my head…). Two teenagers were on the radar. After all, backing young & exciting new players is a big part of what we do here in these pages…
Both went unbacked on the grounds of price…
Both went on to win their maiden WTA titles last night…
Iva Jovic lifted the trophy at WTA Guadalajara. Beating our 28/1 Colombian pick Camila Osorio along the way. And taking advantage of an ill opponent in the final - and another Colombian to boot, Emiliana Arango, who had gone off at 200/1 on day one…
Jovic was more like 8/1. I can live with missing that. Indeed, if you read last week’s member emails, you’d have seen me dismiss the 17-year-old American due to the single-figure quotes about her in the Outright Winner market.
We also mentioned ‘long player names’ last week…
The name Camilo Osorio being as it is, shortened for professional purposes from Maria Camila Osorio Serrano.
Last week at WTA Sao Paulo, a 15-year-old Brazilian by the name of Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva delighted the home fans by winning her first ever main draw match…
And a 19-year-old left-hander, Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah, won the whole thing…
Rakotomanga Rajaonah was in my notebook, after racking up a few titles on the lower-tier tours in recent seasons. Bottom line: I wanted more than 40/1 at last week’s full-level, WTA 250 tournament…
The French teenager got better as the week went on, growing in confidence, and ran out a deserved champion in Sao Paulo…
I can at least - and it’s no small point - shake myself out of my sulk, by pointing again to the price…
Indeed, at one stage last season, a Ones to Watch member kindly got in touch to remind me of my own words:
‘Price is King’…
Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah went off at a generally available 40/1 Each Way in last week’s Outright Winner market. Now, while we all would love a 40/1 shot if we knew it was going to win (!)...
My initial stance that the 40/1 price was too short was proven correct…
Rakotomanga Rajaonah was the underdog in the Match Winner betting in every round last week. Priced as the pre-match outsider, five times in a row. Including at 3/1 in the final itself…
Using Bet365’s match prices and rolling them up round by round, the 19-year-old's accumulated odds - eg. an alternative/ true Outright Winner price - came out at 200/1.
So, there we have it. I didn’t give you a 40/1 winner, because it should have been 200/1.
Isn’t hindsight wonderful…?!
Joking aside. Crumbs of comfort today perhaps, but this is still very important to be aware of in the very much long-term game that we play in the tournament markets…
Price is king. Long live the king.
On to this week’s tennis now - and back to our business of predicting the future…
WTA Seoul got underway this morning. The 1st round continues from 6am Tuesday, UK time.
Iga Swiatek is in the top half of the draw. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some very large stakes being laid down by favourite-backers this week. Swiatek is clearly on paper the star name in the field. But the world no.2 is making her first ever appearance at this tournament - and tennis isn’t played on paper…
If Even Money (2.0) is your kind of thing, then that’s the ballpark price being offered by the bookies for Swiatek to take the trophy home this week. It’s certainly not a price or bet for me…
On the opposite side of the Seoul draw, where no-one can play Iga until the final, we can go after an Each Way contender instead. Much more exciting…
DIANA SHNAIDER is a Ones to Watch regular, and got to the semi final here in Seoul last season. The 21-year-old Russian is ranked no.19 in the world. I’m on record as being a fan of Diana’s game - both powerful and varied - and her attitude, which is strong and play-to-win. We’ll take 22/1 here.
Shnaider showed a return to form on hard courts ahead of the US Open last month, winning the WTA 500 title in Monterrey at 10/1. Double the odds for this week’s 500-grade event in Seoul appeal to me from day one - even with Swiatek lurking on the other side of the drawsheet.
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
WTA Seoul - Korea Open
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Play resumes from 6am, UK time. Bookies will take down Outright Winner markets during each day’s matches.
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P.S
There are two ATP tournaments taking place this week, starting from Wednesday. Look out for more tournament advice in your inbox midweek.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone