OTW Extra Email Archive - April 2017

Why it pays to bet at double-figure prices...

Wednesday 19th April 2017

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Why it pays to bet at double-figure prices...
  • Clay courts all the way...

Why it pays to bet at double-figure prices...

Last week’s tournaments provided us with yet more evidence why it pays to look beyond the short prices and favourites on the weekly ATP and WTA Tours. And go after players available at double-figure prices in the Outright Winner market instead...

As updated on the Calendar on our site, here are last week’s pre-tournament prices and payouts:

ATP Houston
Winner: S.Johnson (8/1)
Runner-up: T.Bellucci (20/1)

ATP Marrakech
Winner: B.Coric (18/1)
Runner-up: P.Kohlschreiber (8/1)

WTA Bogota
Winner: F.Schiavone (22/1)
Runner-up: L.Arruabarrena (9/1)

WTA Biel
Winner: M.Vondrousova (50/1)
Runner-up: A.Kontaveit (20/1)

From eight finalists last week, five were prices at double-figure odds – 18/1, 20/1, 20/1, 22/1 and 50/1.

And last week was certainly no ‘one off.’ Prices like these are delivering week after week on both the Men’s and Women’s tours...

So far in 2017, from 41 tournaments played:

  • 19 winners at single-figure prices (9/1 or less)
  • 22 winners at double-figure prices (10/1+)

And with Each Way betting in mind – so far this year:

  • 17 runners-up at single-figure prices
  • 24 runners-up at double-figure prices

From a total of 82 finalists36 have been at pre-tournament single-figure prices (44%) compared to 46 at double-figure prices (56%).

In other words:

  • Players at double-figure pre-tournament Outright Winner prices are reaching finals – and winning tournaments – more often than players at single-figure prices

And the difference between the two categories can be huge...

The shortest price winner so far this season has been a 6/4 (2.50) shot.

The biggest-priced winner has been at a whopping 250/1 (251.00) – as well as 100/1 (101.00) and 80/1 (81.00) ‘outsiders’ also lifting trophies.

So far this season56% of finalists went off at double-figure prices. Looking back at 2016, that figure remains consistent – with 55% of the 256 finalists in 128 tournaments played having a pre-tournament Outright Winner price in double figures.

OVER HALF of finalists are paying out at double-figure odds. Providing Outright Winner and Each Way payouts, MORE often and for GREATER returns than by backing short-price favourites...

We haven’t landed a payout from our Ones to Watch picks in the past few weeks. But they will come. And by going after prices like we have in recent weeks – 20/1, 40/1, 50/1, 66/1 – we’re hunting in a nice area for finding profits.

It’s the Monte Carlo Masters this week and there are four more clay court events next week. I’ll be back soon with more double-figure Outright Winner picks for us to follow...


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Best wishes,