OTW Extra Email Archive - April 2021
Identifying a 100/1 youngster for the French Open...
Wednesday 21st April 2021
In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
The road to Roland Garros starts here…
This week’s WTA Stuttgart tournament marks the traditional start of the women’s European clay-court season.
The road to Roland Garris consists of WTA tournaments in Stuttgart and Istanbul this week. Followed by stop-offs in Madrid, Saint-Malo, Rome, Belgrade, and Strasbourg. Before the French Open itself on 30th May.
World No.3 Simona Halep says she wants to win all the clay titles that she can. But when it comes to landing the big one at the French Open, then the recent-years formbook says that what happens this spring won’t necessarily be a precursor to what happens on the Paris clay come early June…
No form before Paris, no problem…
Of the last 14 women’s French Open finalists, only three had won a clay-court tournament in the build-up to Paris that season. And seeing as that trio were all big names and bunched in with the Roland Garros favourites anyway – Simona Halep, Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova – that doesn’t really tell us much.
So how can we can go about trying to identify an early-bird contender between now and the start of the French Open, if the pre-Paris form isn’t much to listen to?
The approach that has served us well over the years here at Ones to Watch is to pinpoint young and up-and-coming players at big prices…
These two newcomers both delivered at massive odds, and were both considered seismic shocks at the time:
Jelena Ostapenko was on our Ones to Watch in 2017 list. The Latvian youngster won the French Open as a 100/1 outsider that season.
Iga Swiatek repeated the trick last year. The Polish teenager – also 100/1 on day one of the tournament – took the French Open crown without dropping a single set. As with Ostapenko in 2017, Swiatek featured in our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2020 report.
Prior to striking it big at Roland Garros, neither Ostapenko or Swiatek had won any WTA trophies, let alone a Grand Slam…
Age before titles…
Ostapenko was 19 years old when she arrived at the French Open in 2017, and turned 20 during the tournament. Last year’s champion Swiatek was also 19.
Another Ones to Watch name, Marketa Vondrousova, was a 40/1 runner-up at the French Open in 2019. The Czech was also only 19, and with no prior clay-court titles on the Senior WTA Tour.
With that recent track record in mind, a good place to look for a potential newcomer with big-odds chances at this year’s French Open would be our current Ones to Watch in 2021 list…
Two teenagers that could tick the box from the 2021 report are:
The pick of the early prices…
With the French Open 2021 start date now booked in for 30th May, bookmakers have started to post their Outright Winner lists with more confidence. You won’t find every player at every bookie just yet. But I’ve been shopping around over the past 24 hours, and a couple of BIG prices catch the eye right now…
Last year, Iga Swiatek was a top-price 100/1 for the French Open. This time, the teenage champ is the 5/1 favourite. That’s quite a shift. We got the best prices on Swiatek by making sure we had her on our radar nice and early. Here are the best 2021 prices for the two young women named today:
Marta Kostyuk is not generally on the boards yet, apart from at two bookies. William Hill go 66/1. Unibet have waded in this morning with an eye-catching 400/1. It’s hard to see anyone beating 400/1, except perhaps on the Betfair Exchange. If you can get it, then great. Kostyuk is the kind of big-hitting teenager that could fire into dangerous form at any time. Expect other bookmakers to get involved over the next four or five weeks, before the tournament begins. I’ll be on the lookout.
Here's the one that stands out most of all for me right now in the early prices, with a couple more quotes available, too…
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Elsewhere, Fernandez is 50/1 with William Hill, Ladbrokes & Coral.
This is a get-the-price-in-the-book situation. Fernandez is considered a future Grand Slam winner. My advice is to take the best odds you can get. I already had her written up last night as a 100/1 shot, before Unibet appeared with that 400/1 eye-catcher this morning.
If you’d like to receive ALL of my selections…
I’ve got lots more to say on the French Open – for both the men’s and women’s events. Including some more youngsters that are forming in my notes right now…
If you want to be in pole position to receive those, as well as ALL my weekly tournament picks on the ATP & WTA Tours. Then put my full, members-only Ones to Watch service to the test here.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson