Notes from the tour - week 16...

Thursday 18^th April 2024

So far this season, the average price of a tennis tournament winner is just under 20/1...

Isolate the numbers to 'Masters' 1000 events only, though - and those odds double, to just over 40/1.

Take a look at this Masters 2024 list. Peppered with big-price finalists at 40/1, 66/1, and 100/1+...

1000-grade events 2024 - Outright Winner prices:

The 1000-grade events are the most prestigious on the ATP and WTA Tours. The main-tour list goes: 250, 500, 1000. With only the four annual Grand Slams carrying more status, rankings, and prize money than the Masters 1000's.

The reason for this average odds leap, from 20/1 to 40/1?

Well, the bigger the tournament, the more big-name and top-ranked players in the field...

The more big-name and top-ranked players in the field, the greater the odds for the lesser-known and lower-ranked competitors...

And if a lesser-known and lower-ranked competitor wins a high-profile Masters 1000 tournament - then it's going to be at a much bigger price than if they lifted a trophy at 250 level...

Take Danielle Collins, for example. The last time she played a WTA 250 event, in the last week of February. Collins went off as a 3/1 favourite...

But when she won the Masters 1000 title at Miami a month later, the American was a whopping 100/1...

Conversely, when a big-name, top-ranked player wins a lower-grade tournament. Then they're going to go off at much shorter odds than if it was a Masters 1000 or a Grand Slam. Thus driving down the overall season average...

For example, when Stefanos Tsitsipas won the Monte Carlos Masters last week, he went off at 33/1. But the last time he entered an ATP 250 event, Stef was priced as a 4/1 favourite.

Why all this talk about Masters today?

We're on the clay-court run-up to the French Open. Not one but two, joint ATP & WTA Masters 1000 events are coming up...

Madrid next week. Followed by Rome in early May.

Last season, Madrid saw a 200/1 runner-up in the men's event. And Rome produced a 300/1 finalist in the women's...

I've got lots more to tell you about big prices in the Masters events...

Stay tuned, ready for Madrid next week - which starts on Tuesday...

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

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