OTW Extra Email Archive - April 2026
Notes from the Tour: There's a new Rafa in town...
Thursday 23rd April 2026
100/1 finalists have made a return to the fray in the last four weeks…
Greetings once again from Tennis Towers. Otherwise known as My Usual Desk…
The sun is shining, the tennis is on (and the snooker) – and I’m feeling positive. I’ve even got my shorts on…
In this column a month ago (25th March) we noted that there had to that date been just one 100/1+ finalist in the 2026 tennis season. A number down on recent years…
We anticipated a 100/1 surge. And it’s happening…
Since that date, from 13 completed tournaments, there have been no fewer than four finalists in that big-odds bracket. Players who went off at triple-figures ahead of the 1st round, and went on to reach the final…
And remember, with standard Each Way terms of 1/2 odds for 1-2 places in the Outright Winner markets, a 100/1+ runner-up is worth a 50/1+ payout…
ATP 1000 Miami – Jiri Lehecka 150/1 runner-up
ATP 250 Marrakech – Marco Trungelliti 100/1 runner-up
WTA 500 Charleston – Yulia Starodubtseva 100/1 runner-up
WTA 250 Rouen – Veronika Podrez 150/1 runner-up
Figures and finalists like those are always encouraging for big-price hunters like us…
So, while the trophy-winners themselves have tended to be favourites thus far in 2026, with the average price of a tournament winner close to 10/1, compared to 20/1 over the last couple of years. The outsiders are still making their presence felt…
For example:
When it comes to short-price favourites versus big-odds outsiders, I know which side of the fence I’m on…
Over at this week’s joint men’s & women’s Masters 1000 event in Madrid, the Mutua Madrid Open, I’ve advised Ones to Watch members to back a selection of players – including picks at 33/1, 66/1, and even 100/1…
If you’re not a member yet, get onboard now for instant access to the info for Madrid. With all this week’s recommended players still available to be backed once the Outright Winner markets go back online this evening, after the close of Thursday’s play in Madrid.
There’s a new Rafa in town…
Remember the name: Rafael Jodar...
The Spanish teenager has won 9 out of 10 matches on clay so far this year…
With a run to a debut ATP final and title in Marrakech at the start of the month…
Followed by a semi-final streak in Barcelona last week…
And yesterday, he won his opening match in Madrid…
The 19-year-old has bounded up to a new career-high of no.42 in the world rankings. And as this article on the ATP Tour website explains, young Jodar was outside the top 650 just a year ago...
With that maiden match win in Madrid, Rafael Jodar (dare we call him Rafa all the time already?), has become just the third Spanish man in history to win a main-draw match at this tournament before the age of 20…
The other two players to achieve that early-age Madrid feat being very high-profile future stars indeed… Rafael Nadal (that’s King Rafa), and current world no.2, Carlos Alcaraz. Esteemed company – and perhaps an omen for things to come.
P.S
With next month’s French Open in our sights, the big clay-court tournaments keep on coming. After Madrid this fortnight, we have the Rome Masters kicking off from 5th May…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone