US OPEN COUNTDOWN:

The case for a 100/1 upset…

Thursday 25th August 2022

The US Open draw takes place tonight, and play starts on Monday. Not long to go until the final Grand Slam event of the summer…

And with a startling recent history of big-odds results in the Major tournaments, there’s plenty of reason to be excited as we head to New York this Bank Holiday weekend…

Nothing is impossible…

The US Open Qualifying rounds are taking place this week. A few extra eyes might be on these matches this year, seeing as twelve months ago, the unheralded Emma Raducanu came through qualifying in the Big Apple – and went on to lift the trophy…

Raducanu became the first ever qualifier to win a Grand Slam. To this day I stand by my thoughts from that wild late summer fortnight of 2021 – Emma should’ve been bigger than 100/1 (!). It was really was a bolt from the blue. Unprecedented stuff in terms of such a newcomer delivering on the biggest stage. And in the most dominant of fashions, too – the British teenager didn’t drop a single set over 10 matches combined across the three qualifying rounds & seven main-draw matches.

While Raducanu’s victory was certainly a surprise, big-odds results in the women’s Grand Slams are nothing new. More on that topic below. And tomorrow, we’ll also be looking at the emerging trend for first-time finalists and winners in the men’s game. With the likes of Roger Federer finally releasing their stranglehold on the Major silverware.

Massive prices on the Tour…

As recently as last week we were given a reminder of how wide-open this sport can be right now…

The two big 1000-grade events in Cincinnati – the last such tournaments before the US Open 2022 – produced significant outcomes in both fields:

• WTA Cincinnati winner Caroline Garcia became the first women to win a 1000 event as a qualifier. Garcia’s main-draw run rolled up to odds of 50/1. While runner-up Petra Kvitova started the week at 80/1 in the Outright Winner market

• ATP Cincinnati champion Borna Coric lifted the biggest trophy of his career – with his outsider odds matching his lowly ranking. A 150/1 underdog in the betting, Coric went into the tournament ranked no.152 in the world. Making him the lowest-ranked player ever to win an ATP 1000 title

Eye-catching stat:

• 4 of the 8 ATP & WTA tournaments played so far this month have produced a 100/1+ finalist

The Grand Slam 100/1 Club…

When you look at the list of recent Women’s Grand Slam finalists – with the most recent being last month’s Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina at 100/1. Then you can see why I focus on big-odds outsiders and youngsters with my Ones to Watch selections.

Look at this incredible stack of recent giant-odds outcomes and first-time winners in the women’s Slams…

Maiden winners – since 2015:

• 15 of the last 27 Women’s Grand Slams have been won by players lifting a Major trophy for the first time

Since the Australian Open 2017, when Serena Williams last won a Major title:

• The last 22 Women's Grand Slams have produced 15 different winners

Since the start of 2020:

• 8 of the last 10 Women’s Grand Slams have produced at least one finalist at day-one odds of 33/1+. Including 7 players at 100/1+ 

4 out of 8 champions at 100/1+…

And here’s the real takeaway stat. This is just remarkable:

• The last 8 women’s Grand Slam finals have featured 7 players at odds of 100/1+. With 4 of them winning the trophy

Look at that stat again. Take it in. Four of the last eight Grand Slams have produced a 100/1+ women’s champion. Wow. This sport really is wide open. This is why we go after such big odds….

Here’s that 100/1+ list:

French Open 2020 – Iga Swiatek 100/1 (winner)

French Open 2021 – Barbora Krejcikova 175/1 (winner)

French Open 2021- Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 150/1 (runner-up)

US Open 2021 – Emma Raducanu 100/1 (winner)

US Open 2021 – Leylah Fernandez 200/1+ (runner-up)

Australian Open 2022 – Danielle Collins 100/1 (runner-up)

Wimbledon 2022 – Elena Rybakina 100/1 (winner)

All seven of those players were first-time Major finalists. Incredible stuff. And the way the women’s game is right now, this carnage is showing no sign of slowing down…

Don’t miss the next Major upset…

Ones to Watch members were on Swiatek at 100/1 in 2020. And Collins at 66/1 & 50/1 during the Australian Open this year.

I’ll be going after the big prices again at the US Open next week...

Over on my members-only Ones to Watch service I’ll be providing a full VIP package, with Outright Winner picks, match bets, and DAILY emails and analysis. Plus, I’ll be contactable by email every day to answer questions and help members out.

The doors will be opening very soon. Watch this space. I’ll be in touch with the details you need to get onboard for my exclusive daily US Open advice.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch