OTW Extra Email Archive - August 2023
Cincinnati selections today at 66/1 and 125/1...
Tuesday 15th August 2023
In yesterday's email we discussed the current trend for big-price winners and finalists in the men's Masters 1000 events…
This week's Cincinnati tournament has some compelling recent history for big odds, in both its ATP and WTA incarnations. Take a look at these prices:
Favourites not at home in Ohio?
It’s never easy to say exactly why a particular tournament has a tendency to produce shocks and surprises. But in the case of the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati, with the US Open just around the corner, it's almost like the star names have already got one eye on New York…
That’s not to say this joint men’s & women’s event doesn’t attract the top names. Far from it. The rankings points and prize money on offer here are both substantial.
But perhaps the likes of Iga Swiatek and Novak Djokovic are happy to use this competition to get in shape for the most serious business of the trip to the Big Apple. Not that they would admit it, if course. But it’s no secret that for the small handful of players who dine at the absolute top table of the sport, the Grand Slams are the truest way they count silverware success.
In three visits, Swiatek has yet to reach the quarter finals in Cincinnati. Djokovic has ‘only’ won this title twice, from 14 attempts. Which by his crazy-good standards, suggest he’s not usually at his peak level here in Ohio.
Players aren’t robots…
As outlined by yesterday’s Masters 1000 analysis. And with our recent Ones to Watch 40/1 winner and finalist fresh in the mind this summer. Let’s get some appealing outsiders in the book at Each Way prices today…
Play starts in Cincinnati from 4pm, UK time. That’s if the weather plays ball. The day-one schedule was cut short by rain, with several 1st-round matches carried over to Tuesday’s programme.
Rain delays have been an issue lately – and not just at Wimbledon. Last week in Montreal, we can count ourselves a little unlucky that 50/1 Ones to Watch pick Belinda Bencic ran out of steam in the quarter finals…
Belinda rolled her ankle in her Last 16 win over Petra Kvitova. Because of the condensed schedule due to the weather conditions, Bencic then had to play her quarter-final that same day, with little recovery time. Our player was well beaten by Liudmila Samsonova – who then went on to reach the final, and was overcooked herself by then, with the Russian having to play her semi-final on the same day as the final. Handing a distinct advantage to the other waiting finalist, eventual champion Jessica Pegula.
As those weather and injury examples show, there’s a lot more to picking winners in this game than just looking at the formbook and rankings…
The flipside is, situations like that lend themselves to upsets…
Last week in Canada, none of the single-figure-odds, pre-tournament favourites even made it to the finals. The men’s event in Toronto saw 11/1 Jannik Sinner beat 50/1 Masters-final debutant Alex De Minaur. And the Montreal trophy went to 10/1 Pegula, beating 50/1 Samsonova.
City slickers…
I’ve got four outsiders to follow in Cincinnati..
Join my full members-only Ones to Watch service for instant access:
These courts are built to play fast. It could pay to back players who like to play with pace – big servers, hard hitters, and sharp shooters…
In the women’s event, with the underdog prices very much in mind, that leads me to:
In the men’s betting, let’s get behind a Ones to Watch alumni who’s had a tough time of it lately, but could be about to regain his form and confidence…
To view the full email and all of today’s members-only picks for Cincinnati…
Join Ones to Watch for instant access:
Play starts at 4pm UK time, and bookies take down their Outright Winner markets during the matches. You can watch live on Amazon Prime Video, or via live streaming with bookies including Bet365 and Skybet…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone