OTW Extra Email Archive - December 2017

Season Review - and big news for 2018...

Wednesday 29th November 2017

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Season Review...
  • Proof that it pays to bet at big prices...
  • Do our Ones to Watch make money?
  • Big news for 2018...

2017 Season Review

As promised, I’ve been doing some end-of-season number crunching. Looking back at the 2017 tournament prices, and the performance of our Ones to Watch players...

It’s been a good year for us; that much we already know.

The highlights reel from your FREE 2017 Ones to Watch service includes:

  • 100/1 Jelena Ostapenko winning the French Open – Ostapenko was named in our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2017 report
  • 40/1 Sloane Stephens winning the US Open – Stephens was named in our pre-tournament US Open 2017 – Ones to Watch report
  • Six Outright Winners from our weekly Ones to Watch emails, including 20/1 Katerina Siniakova winning the WTA Bastad title and 25/1 Lucas Pouille winning ATP Vienna

For an overall view of the season, let’s take a look at the facts & figures...

Proof that it pays to bet at big prices...

We’ll start our review by looking at the pre-tournament prices of the winners and runners-up in every event on the 2017 tennis calendar.

This consists of the weekly ATP (Men’s) and WTA (Women’s) full-level tournaments, and the four Grand Slam events.

From 127 tournaments, there were:

  • 65 winners at single-figure prices (9/1 or less) = 51%
  • 62 winners at double-figure prices (10/1+) = 49%

And with Each Way betting in mind, there were:

  • 39 runners-up at single-figure prices = 31%
  • 88 runners-up at double-figure prices = 69%

In total:

  • 104 finalists at single-figure prices = 41%
  • 150 finalists at double-figure prices = 59%

In other words...

In 2017, players at double-figure pre-tournament Outright Winner prices reached finals – and gave payouts – more often than players at single-figure prices.

And the difference between the two categories can be huge...

The shortest price tournament winner this season was an odds-on 5/6 (1.83) shot.

The biggest-priced winner was a whopping 250/1 shot.

Players priced at 100/1 and 80/1 were among 10 rank outsiders lifting trophies at odds of 50/1+ (8%), as well as 23 runners-up at odds of 50/1+ (18%).

  • You can view a full list of 2017 tournament prices on our Calendar

This season, 59% of finalists went off at double-figure prices.

Looking back at 2016, that figure remains encouraging high – with 55% of finalists having a pre-tournament Outright Winner price in double figures.

Over half of finalists this year paid out at double-figure odds. Providing Outright Winner and Each Way payouts, more often and for greater returns than by backing short-price favourites...

That’s all very encouraging for our big-price Ones to Watch picks – and proof that we really are hunting in the right areas.

The pattern continues in the Grand Slams...

In the Grand Slams, all four Men’s titles were won by the famous Big Two of Roger Federer (Australian Open, Wimbledon) and Rafael Nadal (French Open, US Open).

But that’s only half the story...

The four runners-up in the 2017 Men’s Grand Slam finals went off at pre-tournament odds of 16/1, 14/1, 28/1 and 150/1.

In the Women’s, there were four different Grand Slam winners, at odds of 3/1 (Serena Williams), 100/1, 10/1 and 40/1 – with runners-up at 100/1, 4/1, 16/1 and 16/1.

  • 11 of the 16 Grand Slam finalists in 2017 were at double-figure prices (69%)

Do our Ones to Watch make money?

Now for a look at our specific Ones to Watch picks – the tournaments we covered and the players we followed...

Starting with players named in your free weekly Ones to Watch emails:

  • 43 tournaments covered
  • 49 players named
  • 6 winners

Those winners were:

  • February – ATP Quito – Victor Estrella Burgos @ 12/1
  • July – ATP Bastad – David Ferrer @ 15/2
  • July – WTA Bastad – Katerina Siniakova @ 20/1
  • October –  ATP Vienna – Lucas Pouille @ 25/1
  • October – WTA Elite Trophy, Zhuhai – Julia Goerges @ 7/1
  • November – ATP World Tour Finals, London – Grigor Dimitrov @ 11/1

There’s an element of ‘slow & steady wins the race’ here...

Three of our six winners came in a row, at the end of the season. We can’t say when the winners will come – but they do come.

And with our approach of backing outsiders at the more speculative end of the price spectrum, our strike-rate of tournament winners is never going to be a high number.

We had six winners, from 49 players backed across 43 weekly tournaments (finding the winner in 14% of tournaments covered).

At the prices, those six winners were more than enough to generate an overall profit for the season...

  • Backed to 1 pt Each Way stakes, our weekly Ones to Watch picks produced 34.75 pts profit, for a 35% ROI
  • Backed to 1 pt Win Only stakes they produced 39.5 pts profit, for an 80% ROI

By nature, we tend to go after big Each Way prices with our Ones to Watch selections. This year it just so happened that all six of the players we got to finals all went on to win their respective final and lift the trophy for the full winning payout – as opposed to finishing runner-up for an Each Way payout only.

Our free Ones to Watch lists and reports did the business too. Again, taking the season-long approach demonstrates the profitability of what we’re doing here – and why it pays to play the ‘long game’...

In our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2017 report, I listed 10 young & improving players to follow this season. The list included:

  • Elina Svitolina – who went on to win five tournaments, three of them at double-figure prices of 10/1, 14/1 and 14/1...
  • Alexander Zverev – who won four titles, with the highlight the ATP Rome Masters at 25/1...
  • Daria Kasatkina – who won WTA Charleston at 28/1...
  • And of course, the big one, Jelena Ostapenko – who won the French Open at a massive 100/1, and also came runner-up in Charleston at 50/1...

If you’d backed all 10 players in every ATP/ WTA tournament and Grand Slam this season, you’d have come out on top overall:

  • Backed to 1 pt Each Way stakes, our Ones to Watch in 2017 players produced 11.23 pts profit, for a 3% ROI
  • Backed to 1 pt Win Only stakes they produced 49.65 pts profit, for a 23% ROI

There’s good news all round.

If we combine our four free Grand Slam Ones to Watch reports this year, the overall profit figures are positive too...

  • Backed to 1 pt Each Way stakes, our  2017 Grand Slam – Ones to Watch players produced 17 pts profit, for a 28% ROI
  • Backed to 1 pt Win Only stakes they produced 11 pts profit, for a 37% ROI

The two money-makers from our Grand Slam reports were 28/1 Marin Cilic reaching the Wimbledon final for an Each Way payout – and our new best friend Sloane Stephens winning the US Open at a very satisfying 40/1.

The ‘bigger picture’ mantra rings true again here; two payouts from a total of 30 players named in our four Grand Slam reports was enough to make a healthy profit overall.

The final verdict is also a good one for my paid, members-only Grand Slam daily services this year...

We made a profit from all four individual Grand Slam services – the US Open, French Open, Wimbledon and US Open.

  • Overall the Grand Slam daily services produced a total of 32.61 pts profit, for a 33% ROI

Big news for 2018...

The 2017 season is over. It went well. It went very well, in fact. But now it’s time to look forward – and move on to the New Year and the new season...

First things first, we’ll be getting the ball rolling for the upcoming season with our new, Ones to Watch in 2018 report.

After the success of the players featured in this year’s Ones to Watch in 2017 report, I’ll be naming our next batch of youngsters to look out for in the 2018 season.

  • I’ll be releasing my free Ones to Watch in 2018 report this Friday, 1st December

*** Watch this space... ***

I have big plans for 2018.

Last week I had a meeting with my Publisher. I’ve got a follow-up meeting in the diary this week.

Something BRAND NEW is in the pipeline, starting January. And it’s something that many of you have been writing in to ask me about.

I’ll email you with an announcement very soon.


Grigor Dimitrov winning the ATP World Tour Finals was a great way to end the season. Thanks to all of you who got in touch to share your winning stories.

Have you enjoyed the Ones to Watch service this season? What’s been your 2017 highlight?

What are you hoping for and looking for in 2018?

Share your thoughts. Get in touch. I’d love to hear from you.

Message me here >>

See you on Friday...

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson