OTW Extra Email Archive - December 2019
The season in numbers...
Thursday 5th December 2019
In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
Outsiders and youngsters...
Last month’s ATP Finals in London showcased two of our main ‘takeaways’ from the 2019 season...
Stefanos Tsitsipas won the ATP Finals. He was an underdog in the Outright Winner market, at double-figure odds of 18/1. And at just 21 years of age – he’s young, too.
Going after underdogs and young up-and-coming players is what we’ll all about at Ones to Watch.
In fact, Tsitsipas was on our Ones to Watch in 2019 list this season. And over on our members-only service, Tsitsipas at 18/1 was an end-of-season winning pick in London.
Next year we have plenty of reason to keep scouting out and backing outsiders and breakthrough players...
In 2019, six of the eight men’s Grand Slam finalists were the long-established big boys. And between them, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer & Rafael Nadal ultimately took home the four biggest trophies.
Djokovic, Federer & Nadal have now scooped up the last 12 Grand Slams.
But by the end of next summer, Novak will have turned 33, Federer will be 39 and Nadal will be 34...
The new kids are arriving on the block. Daniil Medvedev – another player on our Ones to Watch in 2019 list – made the US Open final, having been a 100/1 outsider at the start of the summer. Medvedev is still only 23 years old.
And that’s just the men’s game. In the women’s, 2019 saw three first-time Grand Slam finalists – with two first-time winners...
At 18 years of age, Bianca Andreescu was a 28/1 winner for Ones to Watch weekly members at Indian Wells in March. Turning 19 over the summer, the Canadian went on to lift the US Open title.
And three of our other Ones to Watch names delivered on the big stage, too.
Marketa Vondrousova was our early-bird, 40/1 underdog pick for the French Open 2019 (runner-up).
Ashleigh Barty beat Vondrousova in the French Open final – with Barty going on to finish as the year-end World No.1. The Australian featured in our Ones to Watch in 2018 report.
Naomi Osaka was named in our Ones to Watch in 2017 file. Osaka has since won two Grand Slams, the US Open 2018 (at 50/1) and the Australian Open this year (at 14/1). The Japanese star also hit No.1 in the world.
As I wrote, Vondrousova is still just 20 years of age. Barty is 23. Osaka is 22.
The future is bright. And we’ll be looking to shine in 2020 with our underdogs & youngsters approach once again...
The season in numbers...
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again:
Big prices are where it’s at with our Ones to Watch picks.
Yet again, in 2019, the overall season numbers show that when it comes to tackling the tournament Outright Winner markets, going after players at big Each Way prices is very much the right tactic…
Double-figure prices the way to go…
I’ve been doing my annual end-of-season number crunching. Throughout the year I’ve recorded the pre-tournament prices of the winners and runners-up for every event on the 2019 tennis calendar.
This consists of the weekly ATP (men’s) and WTA (women’s) full-level tournaments, and the four Grand Slam events.
The findings make very encouraging reading for big-odds backers like us…
From 125 tournaments, there were:
And with Each Way betting in mind – where the standard terms are a 1/2 odds payout for reaching the final – there were:
In total:
In other words...
In 2019, players at double-figure pre-tournament Outright Winner prices won tournaments, reached finals and gave Each Way payouts – more often than players at single-figure prices.
And the difference between the two categories can be huge...
The shortest price tournament winner this season was odds-on at just 8/11 (1.73). That was Djokovic in Tokyo.
The biggest-priced winner was a whopping 150/1 shot, with Juan Ignacio Londero winning in Cordoba to claim his first ATP title.
Players priced at 100/1, 80/1 and 66/1 were among 12 rank outsiders lifting trophies at odds of 50/1+ (10%).
As well as 25 runners-up at odds of 50/1+ (20%) – including players priced as large as 200/1, 250/1 and 300/1.
They’re getting bigger...
This season, 65% of all finalists went off at double-figure prices.
Last year, the number was 62%.
In 2017 that figure was 59%.
In 2016 it was 55%.
Over half of all tournament winners and runners-up this year paid out at double-figure odds. Providing Outright Winner and Each Way payouts, more often and for greater returns than by backing short-price favourites...
That’s all very encouraging for our big-price Ones to Watch picks. We are hunting in the right areas. And we’ll continue to do so in 2020...
Coming soon...
I’m working on your Ones to Watch in 2020 list. I’ve got names in my notes. Players that I believe could go on to do very well in the next twelve months and beyond – and at attractive prices, too.
Look out for that report landing in your inbox over Christmas.
Until then – enjoy the festive run-in...
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson