OTW Extra Email Archive - February 2017

Fabio one to watch in Rio at 20/1...

Monday 20th February 2017

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • More big prices on the Tours...
  • Price watch...
  • Fabio one to watch in Rio at 20/1...

More big prices on the Tours...

We weren’t able to follow up our 12/1 winner on Victor Estrella Burgos last week – but there were yet more signs of encouragement for big-price hunters like us...

My 33/1 picks Taylor Fritz (ATP Memphis) and 80/1 Elena Vesnina (WTA Doha) both fell in the 2nd Round of their respective events. But of the four tournaments played across the men’s & women’s Tours last week, only one pre-tournament favourite ended up lifting a trophy...

Price watch...

Here are last week’s settled pre-tournament prices:

ATP Rotterdam 
Winner: J-W.Tsonga (6/1)
Runner-up: D.Goffin (12/1)

ATP Memphis
Winner: R.Harrison (20/1)
Runner-up: N.Basilashvili (50/1)

ATP Buenos Aires
Winner: A.Dolgopolov (33/1)
Runner-up: K.Nishikori (11/8)

WTA Doha
Winner: Karolina Pliskova (7/2)
Runner-up: C.Wozniacki (14/1)

Karolina Pliskova was the only winning favourite, and she becomes the first player this season to win two trophies.

Elsewhere, there were eye-catching 20/1 and 33/1 tournament winners, as well as a 50/1 runner-up.

Our ‘Ones to Watch’ approach focuses on finding the outsiders who can prove to be value in the week-by-week tournaments. One player stands out as a lively underdog at a decent price this week...

Fabio one to watch in Rio at 20/1...

There are a total of five events on the schedule this week. We have a selection of hard court and clay court events across Europe and the Americas...

20th – 26th Feb:

ATP Rio de Janeiro – clay 
ATP Marseille - indoor hard 
ATP Delray Beach – hard 
WTA Dubai – hard 
WTA Budapest – clay

In Marseille, last week’s Rotterdam winner Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the 7/2 (4.50) favourite for back-to-back wins. French players have won 5 of the last 10 titles in Marseille – so along with Tsonga, look out for a potential run from 2015 winner Gilles Simon (20/1). Those two are in the same half of the draw, along with last year’s winner Nick Kyrgios (5/1) – which is what puts me off an Each Way bet on Simon.

Nothing stands out for me in Delray Beach, Dubai and Budapest – but I like the bottom half of the draw in Rio...

Last week’s beaten Buenos Aires finalist Kei Nishikori is the 7/4 (2.75) favourite and in the top half of the draw. In the bottom half, 9/2 (5.50) second favourite Dominic Thiem has top-billing.

However, the talented youngster Thiem has gone off the boil a bit in the last six months or so, and at the price I can look beyond him here.

Elsewhere in that section, notable names include reigning champion Pablo Cuevas (12/1), and Albert Ramos Vinolas (22/1). Both men have had their best career results and most final appearances on clay. But the same also goes for 20/1 Fabio Fognini, who has a 4-1 career head-to-head record v Cuevas and a 9-1 record v Ramos. Those are key stats for me.

As I’ve said before, Fognini is an erratic player, but also a supremely talented one. At outsider prices, on his best playing surface, he ticks the box as a One to Watch pick here.

One to Watch:

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

  • ATP Rio de Janeiro (Claro Open) – Fabio Fognini @ 20/1 (21.00) Each Way with Boylesports, 18/1 (19.00) in general

Play starts in Rio from 7pm tonight, and the tournament is live on Sky Sports throughout the week.

I’ll be away on holiday next week, so I’ll see you in March with plenty more Ones to Watch, as the season heats up with the first Masters 1000 events of 2017 – and the build-up to the French Open.

Until then, enjoy the tennis.

And remember...

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Best wishes,

Tom Wilson