OTW Extra Email Archive - February 2017

One to Watch this week - Victor 12/1 for the hat-trick...

Monday 6th February 2017

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • 20/1 Shuai beats 11/1 Siniakova...
  • Price watch...
  • One to Watch this week – Victor 12/1 for the hat-trick...

20/1 Shuai beats 11/1 Siniakova...

Last week’s WTA Taipei wasn’t far off following the path that I’d mapped out...

In the top half of the draw, tournament favourite (and one of our Ones to Watch for 2017), Elina Svitolina came through to lift the trophy.

And in the bottom half, where we went looking for the value, the big name/ unreliable Sam Stosur came a cropper as anticipated – but so did my 11/1 Each Way pick, Katerina Siniakova...

Siniakova was beaten by 20/1 tournament outsider, Shuai Peng. Who went on – as is often the way, it seems – to reach the final, having knocked out my pick.

Price watch...

On top of that Taipei result, a couple of big-price players contested last week’s St Petersburg final. Here are the settled pre-tournament prices:

WTA St Petersburg 
Winner: K.Mladenovic (50/1)
Runner-up: Y.Putintseva (100/1)

WTA Taipei 
Winner: E.Svitolina (12/5)
Runner-up: Shuai Peng (20/1)

You can view all events & prices for the year on our Calendar page, updated every week.

One to Watch – Victor 12/1 for the hat-trick...

Last week the men’s Tour took a break for international Davis Cup fixtures. This week it’s the other way around, with the women’s Tour on hold for international Fed Cup matches.

The men return with three ATP tournaments...

6th – 12th Feb:

ATP Quito – clay 
ATP Sofia – indoor hard 
ATP Montpellier – indoor hard

The Sofia event is headlined by Bulgarian home favourite, Grigor Dimitrov – making his first appearance since an admirable run to the Australian Open semi finals. Dimitrov was a top price 60/1 outsider at that Grand Slam event, but he’s a 5/2 (3.50) favourite in this lower-level ATP 250 tournament. He’s a class player but that’s not what I call a ‘Ones to Watch’ price.

In France – where French players tend to do well... Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet lead the list of home players. Those two are around 4/1 at the front of the Montpellier betting, along with the Croatian, Marin Cilic. Looking for a speculative Frenchman to follow, 40/1 Jeremy Chardy or 50/1 Benoit Paire would be more like it in terms of price – but both have made a slow start to 2017 so it’s hard for me to make a case for them here.

The search for a player to follow at a decent price this week takes me to South America...

The Quito event in Ecuador is the first clay court event of the season. This is only the third staging of this tournament, and Victor Estrella Burgos has won the title both times so far...

The veteran 36-year-old from the Dominican Republic is played 10 won 10 at this event. And it has a special place in his heart – the only time he has won an ATP title or even made it to a final has been here in Quito...

Victor is in the top half of the draw where the big-serving (but poor moving) Ivo Karlovic is a general 12/1 shot, and the top seed. At 37, Karlovic is even older than Estrella Burgos. Elswehere in the same half of the draw, 9/1 Thomaz Bellucci is an erratic player – and is 0-3 against the reigning champ, with 2 of those defeats to Victor coming here in Quito.

Past performance is never a guarantee of future success, of course – but at 12/1 I think the industrious Estrella Burgos is being a little underrated to make it a hat-trick of title wins here...

One to Watch:

Each Way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places

  • ATP Quito (Ecuador Open) – Victor Estrella Burgos @ 12/1 (13.00) Each Way with Ladbrokes, Stan James, Boylesports

Latest odds here

Play starts at 5pm today, UK time. Outright Winner markets are available at the time of writing, and will be back up again early in the morning when play ends.

I’ll be back next week with more Ones to Watch...

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

OnesToWatch