OTW Extra Email Archive - February 2021

Lookout for first-time winners in Australia…

Monday 1st February 2021

In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:

  • All eyes on Melbourne Park…
  • First-time Major winners…
  • Australian Open opportunity – coming soon…

All eyes on Melbourne Park…

All of a sudden, it’s the feast after the famine. After a quiet start to the year, the tennis gets going with real force this week…

It’s all eyes on Melbourne Park, with a total of six different events taking place at the Australian Open venue. Before the real thing starts on Sunday night.

This week’s events are:

ATP Cup – team event
ATP 250 – Great Ocean Road Open
ATP 250 – Murray River Open 

WTA 500 – Gippsland Trophy
WTA 500 – Yarra Valley Classic 
WTA 500 – Grampians Trophy

The Grampians Trophy starts on Tuesday night ‘our time,’ and is specifically for the women that had to go into ‘hard quarantine’ in their hotel rooms, with no practise time on court.

I’m not a big fan of team and group tennis from a betting perspective. It’s just not the straight-up, knockout style of play that tennis is built around. The ATP Cup has plenty of big names though, and should provide some crowd-pleasing entertainment.

The Murray River Open headline-grabber tonight is likely to be Nick Kyrgios. The outspoken Aussie is making his first tournament appearance in 11 months. He’s in as one of the 7/1 favourites this week.

If you’re a long-time reader then you’ll know I like Kyrgios – but never at short prices like that. Let’s see ‘which Nick’ turns up this week.

All of this week’s Melbourne Park action ultimately leads, of course, to the Aussie Open itself…

Lookout for first-time winners in Australia…

A couple of weeks ago we noted the history of big prices at the Australian Open.

Today, I’m continuing to build up to the first Grand Slam of the year – which starts this Sunday night – with a look at the record of first-time Major winners

A first-time winner is significant, as until a player makes that breakthrough at one of the four biggest tournaments on the calendar, you’re likely to find them at nice, chunky prices…

For example, back in 2008, a 20-year-old Serbian by the name of Novak Djokovic made his Grand Slam winning debut Down Under – as a 33/1 shot.

These days, you wouldn’t even get 33/1 on Novak flying to the moon…

Going into the Australian Open 2021, world No.1 and two-time reigning champion Djokovic is the 5/4 (2.25) favourite to take the crown, for what would be the 9th time.

My Ones to Watch work centres on finding the next names to break through on the big stage, at the big prices…

There’s no crystal ball. But last year, in two of the three Grand Slams played in the shortened 2020 season, I managed to steer Ones to Watch members to three finalists, and two massive payouts…

  • Sofia Kenin won the Australian Open at 50/1 – her first Grand Slam final & victory
  • Dominic Thiem was a 22/1 Each Way runner-up in Australia. Later in the year, he went on to win a first Grand Slam title at the US Open
  • Iga Swiatek won the French Open at 100/1 – her first Grand Slam final, and indeed first final on the Senior tour, full stop

The women’s game is an especially fruitful area to go hunting for first-timers and big odds…

  • The last 15 women’s Grand Slams have produced 11 different winners
  • 9 of those last 15 women were first-time Grand Slam winners

And at the Australian Open in particular…

  • Sofia Kenin (2020), Caroline Wozniacki (2018), and Angelique Kerber (2016) have all lifted a first Grand Slam trophy in Melbourne. At odds of 50/1, 10/1, and 50/1, respectively

If all that isn’t ammo for the Aussie Open over the next fortnight, then I don’t know what is…

Coming very soon…

I’ll be going for the big prices once again, throughout 2021.

Last year, Kenin and Swiatek featured in our free pre-season Ones to Watch player list. This year’s new 2021 report could be the source of the next big breakthrough name. You can get your free copy of my Ones to Watch 2021 report here.

And if you want to find out who I’m backing in each tournament, and on match-days. Including every day at the Australian Open. Then lookout for an email landing in your inbox later this week…

Your invite will also contain details of something I’ve got up my sleeve again for this year…

I’m calling it my 2021 Challenge. There will be some very BIG odds involved. It’s exciting stuff.

Keep a close eye on your emails.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch Extra