OTW Extra Email Archive - February 2023
Wimbledon early-bird at 66/1...
Thursday 23rd February 2023
The early bird gets the worm…
Good afternoon. Today I’m looking ahead to the summer, and the real heart of the tennis season…
We often do some of our best Ones to Watch business by getting on an outsider at a big price for a Grand Slam tournament, early doors. And I’ve got one such selection to add to the book today…
Today I want to get behind a great player with – in my opinion – more than an outside chance of going deep at Wimbledon this July…
Wimbledon 2023 – Karolina Muchova @ 66/1…
Karolina Muchova is currently ranked no.112 in the world. But if ever a ranking didn’t reflect a player’s quality, then this is it. The 26-year-old Czech has been plagued by injuries in her career. Quite simply, injuries are the only thing stopping her going for the big-time…
Muchova has been as high as no.19 before. She certainly has the game and talent to maintain a Top 20 ranking or higher – if fitness & form can only go hand-in-hand long enough for her to mount a consistent challenge…
One thing’s for sure, Karolina has started 2023 in promising form. And crucially – no injury retirements as of yet. I’ve been followed the skilful right-hander’s progress at WTA Dubai this week, which is the first WTA ‘Masters’ 1000 event of the season. And I’ve been impressed.
As I write this Thursday afternoon, Muchova will be in the locker-room limbering up for a quarter-final match with world no.3 Jessica Pegula. If the Czech underdog continues her charge in Dubai, people will likely start taking nibbles or chunks out of her prices for the upcoming Majors…
And for me, the big one that matches up with Muchova’s mix of craft, power, and sheer ball-playing talent is clear: the grass courts of Wimbledon…
Turf always plays into the hands of players with the hands and smarts to execute mean slices and drop-shots. Karolina Muchova is right up there in that category for me.
Indeed, this time last year, I had two names on my note-sheet as potential women’s Wimbledon 2022 picks: Muchova, and Ons Jabeur. The former didn’t make the cut for me due to fitness concerns. The latter went out in this column as a 40/1 early-bird pick. And Jabeur rewarded us at SW19 last summer by going all the way to her first Grand Slam final, for a half-the-odds Each Way payout.
This year, Jabeur – now bedded-in as a Top 5 player – is trading at 10/1 for Wimbledon. While the lowly-ranked but supremely gifted and capable Muchova can be backed at 66/1 with a few of the big firms, and 80/1 with the sportsbook offered online by the likes of 10Bet and LiveScoreBet. Let’s take a bit of those early-bird, Each Way offerings today.
Already this week on the hard courts of Dubai, Muchova has shown what she can do. Overturning the odds to knock out the in-form Belinda Bencic in the last round. And making it into her second WTA quarter final of the year – from just four tournaments played in total.
Here are a few bullet points from my Wimbledon/ Muchova notepad. I’m pretty much pasting them how I’d originally jotted them down:
Let’s get the world no.112 in the book today. The early bird gets the worm…
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Wimbledon 2023 – Women’s
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
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P.S
There are five tournaments taking place on the ATP & WTA tours this week… and five more next week. To get your hands on all my latest Ones to Watch members-only advice, including match picks for this evening’s play at ATP Rio de Janeiro and WTA Merida – click here to join and gain instant access to the website.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson