OTW Extra Email Archive - February 2025
Notes from the Tour: Follow an 8-match winning streak tonight...
Thursday 27th February 2025
The tours continue to produce big-price finalists…
Last week, Alexandre Muller was a 100/1 runner-up on clay at the ATP Rio Open…
The 28-year-old (that age again…) has started the year well. Winning his first ever ATP title in January, on hard courts in Hong Kong. The Frenchman went off at 40/1 that week…
Muller is now up to a career-best ranking of no.41 in the world.
And in the women’s game, the exciting prices also keep on coming…
There have been two WTA 1000 ‘Masters’ events so far in 2025 - that’s the highest grade other than the four Grand Slams. And after last week’s results in Dubai, the Outright Winner/ Each Way runner-up outcomes look like this:
WTA 1000 Dubai - Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
WINNER: M.Andreeva (28/1)
Runner-up: C.Tauson (66/1)
WTA 1000 Doha - Qatar TotalEnergies Open
WINNER: A.Anisimova (50/1)
Runner-up: J.Ostapenko (80/1)
The next 1000 event starts in the middle of next week (5th March), with both the men and women in action at Indian Wells…
Follow an 8-match winning streak tonight…
In terms of today’s tennis, I’ll be tuning-in to watch a couple of the WTA Merida matches this evening…
Over on the paid service, we’re on Rebecca Sramkova as an Each Way Ones to Watch pick at 50/1 this week. After winning her 1st-round match on Tuesday night, the 28-year-old (yes, that age again) - and with one of the favourites Marta Kostyuk knocked-out from this side of the Merida draw - the Slovakian is now trading at just 12/1 to go all the way in Mexico this week.
Sramkova plays another 28-year-old, the higher-ranked but currently out-of-form, Beatriz Haddad Maia. The bookies make that one 50-50, each priced at 10/11 (1.91) to win. That match will be on after this one…
Arango v Jones - live on Sky Sports Tennis, 8pm…
Francesca Jones has an inspiring story. And at no.136 in the world, the Brit is at a career-high ranking right now.
But I won’t be backing Fran to win tonight…
Her opponent is a fellow 24-year-old residing outside of the world Top 100, but showing signs of hitting that rankings milestone this season…
Emiliana Arango (no.133) is on an eight-match winning streak right now. The Colombian has been busy in Mexico already this month, winning a lower-tier title in Cancun less than a fortnight ago…
In fact, Arango beat Jones in the semi final at that event. As with Cancun, tonight’s match in Merida will be played on hard courts…
These two women have met twice before in an official competitive capacity. And both times, it’s been a very close contest:
This month’s match in Cancun saw Arango save 3 match points, before coming back to beat Jones, 3-6, 6-1, 7-5 (Total Games = 28)...
They also met back in 2016 as Juniors, in the Wimbledon Girls’ tournament. Jones came back to triumph in a 3-set scuffle that day: 4-6, 7-6, 6-3 (Total Games = 32)...
All of which leads me to two match markets today…
Match Winner: backing the South American to win, and extending her Mexican winning streak to nine matches in a row. Especially with Arango priced as the slight underdog - best odds 5/4 (2.25) Betway, 11/10+ (2.1+) in general.
Total Games: the bookies’ general Under/ Over line for tonight’s match is 21.5 Games. With the history between Arango and Jones in mind - and remember, just three places currently separate them in the world rankings. The call is Over 21.5 Games, available at 17/20 (1.85) with Betway, and 4/5+ (1.8+) in general.
I’ll be back next week with more, as we prepare to head to the USA for the March ‘Sunshine Double’: Indian Wells, and then the Miami Open…
Enjoy the tennis…
P.S
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Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone