OTW Extra Email Archive - February 2026
Notes from the Tour: Arthur's back in the game...
Thursday 5th February 2026
Part of the Ones to Watch game is to keep an eye out for players coming back from long injury layoffs – especially if they’ve featured in our advice & analysis before…
One such name ticks that back-from-injury box this week. Arthur Fils appeared in my pre-season report for 2024, published back in December 2023 (you can view that free report here).
At the time, Arthur was just 19 years of age; in fact, he was the highest-ranked teenager in the world’s Top 100:
Fils went on to win two ATP Tour titles that year (2024)…
By April 2025, the dynamic young Frenchman was up to a new career-high of no.14 in the world. His ranking points bolstered by an impressive and consistent run of three ATP Masters 1000 quarter finals in a row: Indian Wells and the Miami Open on hard courts in March, and then on clay at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters in April. A semi-final at ATP Barcelona followed.
But then – injury struck…
Last summer, back problems began to trouble Arthur, putting the brakes on what at the time was a fast-developing career.
Arthur pulled out of last May’s French Open in the 3rd round. He would play just two more matches last season; his last win coming on 31st July on hard courts at the Toronto Masters. That was, until this week…
Fils is making his return to the tour at ATP Montpellier this week…
Home players tend to do well in the many indoor hard-courts events held in France every year. Montpellier this week is shaping up that way so far. Indeed, Fils faces a fellow Frenchman tonight, with a place in the quarter finals at stake…
His opponent, 27-year-old Ugo Blanchet, is ranked no.174 – and has never been inside the world’s Top 100. That said, Blanchet had an against-the-odds win in the last round, and as a Lucky Loser with a place in the Montpellier draw, Ugo may feel he’s playing with house money tonight.
The returning Fils, still now only 21 years old, and playing off a protected ranking of no.42 – is the bookies’ favourite for the win, at around 1/4 (1.25). If you held a gun to my head, I’d have to agree. It could be a tight scoreboard, though, with serve often dominating in these European indoor encounters. And as you may know by now, I like to hunt out bigger prices…
Fils’ 1st-round win earlier this week – his first match victory on tour since last July, remember – featured two tiebreak (7-6) sets. That match was against another French opponent, Valentin Royer.
Five of Blanchet’s eight most recent matches this year have seen a tiebreak set. The bookmakers have that option at odds-against in the Yes/ No market for a Tiebreak in the Match this evening…
Blanchet v Fis will be on Sky Sports Tennis (or the red button) tonight from around 7pm. With live streaming available with the likes of Bet365.
What’s more, we should keep an eye on Fils’ comeback this season. With this spring’s upcoming Masters 1000 tournaments in mind for potential big-odds opportunities – Indian Wells & Miami in March, followed by Monte-Carlo, Madrid, and Rome.
I’ll be back next week with more player info and prices…
P.S
Not a member yet? Join now to get onboard for all of next week’s members-only analysis and advice…
Join the Ones to Watch club here >>
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone