OTW Extra Email Archive - January 2017

Ones to Watch - 50/1 Aussie on the list this week...

Monday 9th January 2017

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • It’s happening already...
  • Ones to Watch 2017 update...
  • 50/1 Aussie on the list this week...
  • Grand Slam countdown! Australian Open THIS WEEKEND...

It’s happening already...

In your Ones to Watch 2017 report I said we should look out for the ‘young blood’ coming through.

And with a series of big-price results in the opening week of the season, we’ve had a tantalising taste of what’s to come...

My 8/1 ‘One to Watch’ pick Caroline Wozniacki didn’t get the silverware last week – but neither did odds-on 8/11 shot Serena Williams...

In fact, that WTA Auckland final ended up being contested by two 33/1 shots – Lauren Davis and Ana Konjuh.

And the big prices weren’t confined to that New Zealand event...

The opening week of the 2017 ATP and WTA Tours also included tournament winners at 14/1 and 80/1... and runners-up providing Each Way returns from starting prices of 20/122/1 and 25/1.

You can view the full list of weekly tournaments – including prices – on the newly-updated Calendar page on our website.

I have a brand new Ones to Watch website in the pipeline for you this year, too. Plenty to look forward to...

Ones to Watch 2017 update...

Some of the players on my 2017 Ones to Watch list started the season in promising form last week:

  • Alexander Zverev – beat Roger Federer last week. That’s the second time the German teenager has beaten the great man, in less than a year  
  • Kyle Edmund – reached the quarter finals in the ATP Brisbane event, eventually beaten 2 sets to 1 by World No.4 and reigning US Open champ Stan Wawrinka. Edmund has now reached the quarter finals or better in three of his last six tournaments
  • Jelena Ostapenko – reached the semi finals at WTA Auckland last week 
  • Elina Svitolina – reached the semi finals at WTA Brisbane. Beating World No.1 Angelique Kerber on the way – and only losing to eventual tournament winner Karolina Pliskova. Svitolina has now beaten Kerber twice in a row

View my full list of 10 young players to watch here.

While at the other end of the career spectrum...

  • Women’s World No.2 and legend of the game Serena Williams won just one match in Auckland, before losing to 12/1 outsider Madison Brengle
  • Women’s World No.3 Agnieszka Radwanska was beaten by 7/2 underdog Alison Riske in Shenzhen
  • And Men’s World No.7 Marin Cilic lost to 5/1 shot Jozef Kovalik in Chennai

The favourites don’t win every week. Upsets do happen – and underdogs are often undervalued by the markets.

We’ll be looking to get on as many tasty prices as we can this season...

50/1 Aussie on the list this week...

The Australian Open is coming up this weekend (see below). But before then we have four tournaments taking place on the regular tours this week:

ATP Auckland – hard court 
ATP Sydney – hard court
WTA Sydney – hard court
WTA Hobart – hard court

The week before a Grand Slam is historically a good time to be looking beyond the favourites – and sniffing around the bigger-priced players...

The big guns will have at least one eye on the Melbourne fortnight. The top names will prioritise their fitness above any other commitments to lower-level events this week.

The evidence is right there in last year’s results:

  • In 2016, the week before each of the four Grand Slam events combined produced tournament winners at odds of: 28/150/150/1, 3/1, 20/133/111/120/1, 5/2, 3/1, 8/1, 16/116/116/1

That’s 10 out of 14 wins at double-figure prices. Along with a couple of 33/1 runners-up, too.

With that in mind, it’s well worth following a few players at speculative prices this week...

In the men’s Auckland event, I like Karen Khachanov at a standout 25/1. The 20-year-old Russian is on my Ones to Watch 2017 list, having broken through on the tour with a 66/1 tournament win near the end of last season.

He’s in the bottom half of the draw with a handful of players that are all strong on serve – including Feliciano Lopez (14/1), Jack Sock (5/1), Steve Johnson (16/1) and John Isner (11/2). Khachanov can hold his own in the serving & big hitting department, and is available at a bigger price than all of those players this week.

Sock is the tournament favourite but played several matches in both Singles and Doubles last week – he might be better off saving himself for the Australian Open.

In the men’s Sydney event, I like one player from each side of the draw...

Pablo Carreno Busta (14/1) is up to a career high of #30 in the world, and won his first two titles on the ATP Tour last season.

Spaniards often have a reputation for clay court tennis, but both of Carreno Busta’s tournament wins so far have come on hard courts. He can cause a few problems for the likes of Dominic Thiem (11/4) and Benoit Paire (16/1) in the top half of the Sydney draw.

It’s also worth noting that Carreno Busta won at odds of 50/1 in the week before the US Open last year.

In the bottom half of the Sydney draw, 25-year-old Australian Matthew Barton catches the eye at 50/1. He took advantage of an under-par Kyle Edmund to win his opening match 2-0, and with the ability to take care of his service games, he could edge out a few higher-ranked players on a tiebreak or two this week...

Barton has never been deeper than an ATP quarter final before, but he’s no stranger to playing tennis in the Sydney conditions – and coming just days before the first Grand Slam on the calendar, he ticks a few boxes as a big-price outsider here.

Ones to Watch:

In summary, my Ones to Watch in the Outright Winner markets this week are...

Each Way terms 1/2 odds 1-2 places

  • ATP Auckland – Karen Khachanov @ 25/1 Each Way with Betfred, 20/1+ in general
  • ATP Sydney – Pablo Carreno Busta @ 14/1 Each Way with NetBet, 10Bet, 12/1 in general
  • ATP Sydney – Matthew Barton @ 50/1 Each Way with Skybet, Ladbrokes, 40/1 in general

Grand Slam countdown! Australian Open THIS WEEKEND...

Those players are my idea of the value prices this week. And we are now just days away from the first Grand Slam event of 2017 – the Australian Open in Melbourne...

I’m busy putting together a very special Grand Slam opportunity for you. Full details will be revealed this week.

And as a Ones to Watch reader, you’ll hear about it BEFORE ANYONE ELSE.

Keep an eye on your emails. This is an exciting time to be following the tennis. I’ll be back with more soon...

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

OnesToWatch