OTW Extra Email Archive - January 2024
Notes from the tour - week 2...
Wednesday 10th January 2024
I’m enjoying the new tennis season. I just wish there were more hours in the day to watch it all…
Pulling the all-nighters…
With the Australian Open getting underway in Melbourne this weekend, I’ve been getting in my late-night/ early-morning training with a few stints watching the Brisbane and Adelaide tournaments this past fortnight. Although with a six-month-old baby at home, you could say I’m already used to sleep deprivation…
The ATP & WTA Tours seem to be moving closer to some kind of sensible, ongoing collaboration. The latest being this week’s joint press release regarding late-night finishes in matches. Scheduling has long seemed erratic at best at some events. It looks like common sense is starting to prevail. Less knackered players is sure to lead to better tennis, long term. And in the short term, fewer injury withdrawals. Both good things.
There’s also going to be a ‘strategic review’ (sounds like politician-talk to me) regarding the issue of, ahem, heavy balls. Top players are complaining that too many different balls being used for different tournaments are causing too many injuries, and proving hard to adjust to one week from the next.
This was not an issue for me growing up, battering one bald ball against a wall until it literally fell apart. But for professional players with precious arms and wrists to think about, it makes sense. Apparently Dunlop balls are the main culprit…
While we’re dropping in brand names…
It’s all in the wrist…
Have you seen the Hunting the Rolex Rippers documentary on the BBC? It’s on iPlayer here. I’m not endorsing the crime - and there’s some scary stuff in that doc. But you can see why basically having tens of thousands of pounds strapped to your wrist might make you an easy target to someone with bad intentions.
Many tennis players have lucrative sponsorship deals with luxury watch brands. Rafael Nadal has had his mega-money timepiece nabbed from him on more than one occasion.
And last year, Grigor Dimitrov had his fancy Swiss watch ripped from him in broad daylight in Barcelona.
I’m more of an Argos/ Casio man myself. Pushing to a Swatch for special occasions.
Would a 63/1 winner buy you a new watch?
One of my favourite big-odds tennis betting angles is to back three 2-1 Set Betting scores. In particular I tend to target women’s matches with this long-shot tactic, with the WTA circuit often the scene of some of the most roller-coaster scorelines.
Take Daria Kasatina’s match with Anna Kalinskaya this morning, for example. At one stage in the third & final set, there were eight breaks of serve in a row. You don’t see that kind of thing happen very often in the men’s game, but it’s not out of the ordinary in the women’s.
Kasatkina eventually got over the line with the 2-1 Sets victory, with the score 5-7, 6-4, 7-5.
Three women’s matches catch my eye for a tilt at this big-price, low-stakes angle tonight. With the WTA Adelaide quarter finals taking place from the early hours of Thursday morning…
These are three line-ups where I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the pre-match favourite eventually get the job done, but take the full three sets of tennis to do so…
Jelena Ostapenko 2-1 Set Betting score v Marta Kostyk
Jessica Pegula 2-1 Set Betting score v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Daria Kasatkina 2-1 Set Betting score v Laura Siegemund
As one loudmouth on the Betfair forum used to say when sharing his tips with anyone who would listen… ‘Thank me later’!
Big ones Down Under…
Talking of big prices…
If you’re a long-time reader, you’ll already be on two of our Ones to Watch in 2024 players for next week’s Australian Open…
Last autumn, I advised members to strike early-bird Aussie Open 2024 bets on upcoming youngsters Ben Shelton and Linda Noskova. In September, Betfred dangled industry-best prices of 200/1 for Shelton, and 100/1 for Noskova.
I then sent those two names out for free here in Ones to Watch EXTRA in October, with Ben available at 66/1, and Linda at 150/1. View that report here.
With the first Grand Slam of the new season now just days away. The bookies currently make Shelton a best-price 80/1 for the Australian Open (LiveScoreBet), with Skybet, Unibet, BetUK & BetMGM going 66/1.
While Noskova is now available at triple figures with a few firms: 150/1 Unibet, BetUK & BetMGM (all the same sportsbook), 125/1 LiveScoreBet, 100/1 Bet365, 888 Sport.
I’ll be back tomorrow with a bonus email as we ramp up our Australian Open preparations...
Lookout for some eye-popping big-odds info hitting your inbox. Along with details of how you can get your hands on all of my DAILY bets, analysis, and advice for the Aussie Open fortnight.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone