OTW Extra Email Archive - January 2024
Notes from the Australian Open - week 1...
Wednesday 17th January 2024
Greetings from Australia…
Well. I’m in freezing Oxfordshire, actually. But my head - and sleep - is very much on Aussie time…
The opening few days of the first Grand Slam of the year have seen a few young teenagers grab the headlines.
Not one, not two, but three 16-year-olds made it to the women’s 2nd Round.
Brenda Fruhvirtova, and 2023 Girls’ champion Alina Korneeva, both went out this morning.
But one of the lead names from our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2024 Report is looking menacingly good, and is into the 3rd Round…
Mirra making waves…
Mirra Andreeva has started like a train in Melbourne. The talented Russian has won both her matches in straight sets. Including a statement, 6-0, 6-2 drubbing of Ons Jabeur last night.
Andreeva ended 2023 ranked no.57 in the world. She’s currently up to no.47. Jabeur is an established Top 10 player, ranked no.6 right now - and a three-time Grand Slam finalist.
While the experienced Tunisian was not at her best last night, by any stretch. It’s hard to take anything away from the exuberant, attacking tennis played by the 16-year-old - making her main-draw debut at the Australian Open.
As I said in my pre-season report, the only downside with Mirra is from a betting stance - with the issue being the struggle to find genuine value in her prices…
Andreeva - who has yet to reach a semi final on the senior WTA Tour, yet alone a final at a Major. Started last weekend at 40/1 at best Down Under, with some firms as short as 22/1.
The teenage star is today trending as a ‘Most Popular’ bet on Oddschecker. Trading at 14/1 at best with Bet365. And single figures with the likes of Skybet, at just 9/1.
Today’s short prices feel like ‘bandwagon’ bets to me. Mirra Andreeva is going to be popping up on the BBC news. People who don’t even watch tennis - let alone bet on it - are going to be throwing a few quid behind the teenager…
And this is where, in my line of work, anyway. You have to separate the media hype from the betting reality. I didn’t think Andreeva at 40/1 was a bet before the tournament. I certainly don’t like 9/1 now.
That’s not to say I don’t like Mirra’s tennis. In fact, I’m a fan. Her post-match, on-court interview last night showed a youthful charm and endearing sense of humour, too.
But when it comes to prices…
To lay down the cold, hard cash…
To put your neck on the line and publish your picks, as I do…
Well, I want greater odds for a teenager to win what would be her first trophy, on the biggest stage, at a Grand Slam…
It’s happened before…
In 2021, Emma Raducanu did it at the US Open. But Emma went off at 100/1 there - not 40/1. And I remember thinking even that triple-figure quote was a little tight - possibly due to some British bias being built-in by the bookies.
I also remember, during that US Open run, telling anyone who would listen, that Raducanu was a ‘bandwagon’ bet. That she was being overhyped. That the odds didn’t match the real chances.
Throughout that New York fortnight, I said the same bold statements over and again. To my dad on the phone. To my mate Dave at the pub. As the prices tumbled to 50/1… 25/1… 10/1…
Still, she steamrollered on…
And as you know, of course, Raducanu did indeed go on to lift the trophy that summer. One of the greatest rank-outsider stories and upsets in sporting history, full stop.
So, what do I know?
Well, for what it’s worth…
One teenager I did flag-up for maiden Grand Slam glory at 100/1 was Iga Swiatek, at the French Open 2020. And she’s now the world no.1. Read more about that bet here.
The 150/1 teenager that no-one is talking about…
While the hype machine cranks up around young Mirra Andreeva this week…
There’s one name you won’t have been hearing so much about…
My early-bird pick for the 2024 women’s Australian Open was another teenager, Linda Noskova. The 19-year-old Czech is through to the 2nd Round, and plays again tonight…
Earlier this month, Noskova beat Andreeva in the WTA Brisbane quarter finals. In fact, Linda is the only player to have beaten Mirra so far this year…
Andreeva is 6-1 for match wins this season. Fellow teenager Noskova is 5-1, and will move level with the Russian’s 2024 stat, should the Czech book her place in the 3rd Round with another match win in Melbourne tonight
Like Andreeva, Noskova also featured in my Ones to Watch in 2024 Report, published in this column on 22nd December…
And before that, I sent Linda out in these pages at a top-price of 150/1, on 12th October…
On Day 1 of the Australian Open last Saturday, I alerted members of my Ones to Watch service to the fact that Betfred were offering 300/1 for Noskova…
As I write today, the 19-year-old is available at 150/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, and LiveScoreBet. And 100/1 with Bet365, BetVictor, and 888 Sport.
I’ve got several other massive-odds outsiders lined up and in the book for members of my daily Australian Open service. This is what we do at Ones to Watch:
We back appealing outsiders, at attractive Each Way prices…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone