Notes from the Tour: The 100/1 Quest Down Under...

Wednesday 14th January 2026

100/1 shots aren’t supposed to get to finals – but they do…

Last season, from a total of 114 tournaments played across the ATP & WTA Tours, including the four Grand Slams – 14 players made it to a title match, having gone off at odds of 100/1 or greater at the start of the event…

And remember, betting Each Way with standard place terms of 1/2 the odds for reaching the final, a 100/1 runner-up is worth a 50/1 return.

Five of those 14 players went on to take the silverware last season – and in doing so, trigger the full, 100/1+ payout…

One of those colossal winners was Ones to Watch friend, Madison Keys. The American was a pre-tournament pick for us at the Australian Open last January. Landing members a 100/1 or 80/1 jackpot by the end of the month.

With this year’s Australian Open kicking-off in Melbourne this coming weekend, that’s our next target…

As with every major event on the calendar, I will be attempting to scout out the big-odds underdogs with upset potential…

Before that, there are still four tour events to be completed this week. And if 100/1 shots aren’t supposed to get to finals – then neither are 250/1 rank outsiders…

In fact, players at those prices shouldn’t be getting to quarter finals or semis either, you might think…

Well, down at WTA Adelaide this week, we’re on a home player at massive prices…

Kimberly Birrell started the tournament at a top price of 250/1 with Bet365…

Here’s the market from Monday:

From 250/1 to 25/1…

Fast-forward two rounds, and world no.107 Birrell is through to the quarter finals. And now just 25/1 to go all the way, and win what would be a first career WTA title.

Birrell takes on world no.37 Jaqueline Cristian late tonight/ early Thursday morning (UK time). The higher-ranked Romanian is the favourite – but the head-the-head is level at 1-1…

If getting odds of 250/1 for a 25/1 shot appeals to you, then you’re in the right place…

Watch this space for more big-odds tournament info coming in your direction soon. With the Aussie Open starting this weekend…

Australian Open = potential upsets…

The first Grand Slam of the season has a very decent history regarding long-shots doing well in the Outright Winner betting. For example:

• Last year, American rising star Ben Shelton got to the Australian Open men’s semi finals – having started the tournament as a 150/1 shot

• And in 2021, the unheralded Aslan Karatsev also made the semis – from a whopping start price of 1,000/1

But it’s the women’s recent record in Melbourne that is most enticing:

• As we’ve discussed, Madison Keys won the women’s Australian Open at 100/1 last year. Paula Badosa was also a semi-finalist, at 66/1 

• In 2024, Ones to Watch youngster Dayana Yastremska started the Australian Open at 500/1 across the board – and made it to the semi finals

• In 2023, Magda Linette sprung a surprise by getting to the semi finals as a 300/1 outsider

• In 2022, Danielle Collins was a 100/1 runner-up – and a profitable Each Way pick for Ones to Watch members during the tournament

• In 2021, Jennifer Brady made a breakthrough run to the final at 33/1 

• And in 2020, Ones to Watch pick Sofia Kenin won the Australian Open at 50/1. With 40/1 Garbine Muguruza the runner-up

Those numbers definitely whet the appetite for the coming fortnight Down Under…

Look out for more big-odds info coming your way in this column tomorrow.

P.S
And with the Australian Open draw being made on Thursday, keep an eye on your emails for your chance to profit from this year’s Ones to Watch picks – before play starts this weekend..

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch