OTW Extra Email Archive - July 2019
Wimbledon update: 100/1 teenager – and Kyrgios v Nadal…
Thursday 4th July 2019
In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
Wimbledon update: 100/1 teenager - and Kyrgios v Nadal…
Since the start of the year we built up a list of five early, big-price Ones to Watch for Wimbledon…
In the Outright Winner markets our plan for Wimbledon is the same as at every other Grand Slam tournament: look to find the best value Each Way prices.
Backing at big odds inevitably means we will lose players in the early rounds and have more bad days than good days. But the good days make it all worthwhile and then some…
Last summer at Wimbledon our 50/1 pick Kevin Anderson got to the final, for a 25/1 place payout.
Last month our 40/1 French Open ‘One to Watch’ pulled off the same feat, with Marketa Vondrousova finishing runner-up for a 20/1 Each Way payout.
Here’s an update on our current runners & riders at SW19:
Yastremska doing well…
Our 100/1 pick Dayana Yastremska won a hard fought, ding-dong battle against fellow rising star Sofia Kenin yesterday. Yastremska saved multiple break points in the final set to come through 7-5, 4-6, 6-3…
Dayana moves forward in the bottom quarter of the draw with the 19-year-old Ukrainian now into the 3rd Round and a 33/1 shot for the title. This is a young player that is serious about winning tennis matches – and tournaments.
The other players on our early Wimbledon Ones to Watch list were Tomas Berdych (100/1 – out), Magdalena Rybarikova (200/1 – out), Nick Kyrgios @ 30/1 and Belinda Bencic @ 120/1…
Those huge odds on Bencic went some time ago. She’s settled at 33/1 in the market. Belinda plays in the 2nd Round today.
Belinda is in the toughest section of the draw, with Top 10 players Ashleigh Barty, Angelique Kerber/ Serena Williams in her path to the semi finals, where Kiki Bertens or Petra Kvitova are the top-ranked players seeded to be waiting in the semis.
The positive there is that Bencic has the best record of any WTA player v Top 10 opponents in 2019 – with eight such victories to her name.
As ever, when it comes to Nick Kyrgios – things are a little more complicated…
Match of the day…
Nick won his 1st Round match but it took him the full five sets. And in recent weeks his antics have been as unpredictable and controversial as ever, on and off the court. I’m a Kyrgios fan. His talent and ability are not in question. I’m rooting for him to get a grip on the mental side of things at some point.
He’s capable of playing proper, big-time tennis. The Aussie has shown that in glimpses throughout his career. Not least when beating Rafael Nadal as a 9/1 underdog here at Wimbledon five years ago. Since that first 2014 meeting, the Kyrgios-Nadal head-to-head is 4-3 to Nick. He’ll fancy his chances today, that’s for sure.
The bookies make Kyrgios 3/1 at best to beat Rafa. In the Outright Winner market, Nick is actually a bigger price than when I originally flagged him up in March – now 50/1 and 40/1 in general. It goes without saying that if Kyrgios does manage to knock out Nadal today, then those prices will go.
Kyrgios v Nadal is the last match on Centre Court today. You can watch live on the BBC and iPlayer. It should be entertaining…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson