OTW Extra Email Archive - July 2024
Notes from the tour – and a 40/1 Gold Medal pick…
Wednesday 17th July 2024
This year’s Wimbledon results followed a familiar male/ female pattern…
The Men’s final was contested by two of the biggest names, and the favourites in the betting: reigning champion Carlos Alcaraz beating seven-time winner Novak Djokovic.
Alcaraz started the Wimbledon fortnight at 12/5 (3.4). Djokovic was 7/2 (4.5).
But in the Women’s event, the Grand Slam carnage continued…
Barbora Krejcikova lifted the Ladies title. The latest in a long line of surprise women’s Major champions, paying out at huge odds. Krejcikova went off at 225/1.
That follows on from last year’s Wimbledon upset, where fellow Czech woman Marketa Vondrousova became the first unseeded Ladies champ in the Open era – having started the tournament at odds of 150/1. While another Czech, Karolina Muchova, was a 100/1 runner-up at the French Open 2023…
This year’s Wimbledon runner-up was Jasmine Paolini. As you and I have already noted, the Italian is having the season of her life. We were on Paolini in this very column as a 150/1 Each Way early-bird for the French Open. Jasmine reached the final in Paris last month, landing a big payout for us. (Thanks again for all your winning stories after that one.)
Paolini was a 66/1 shot at Wimbledon this month. I didn’t back her this time. But I’ve heard from a couple of Ones to Watch followers who did, sticking with the Italian after that great French Open run…
Stephen B emails in to say:
“Hi Oliver, I was [on Paolini for Wimbledon], I had £5 e/w at 60/1 with Betfair Sportsbook which won me £150.00. And£15 e/w at 25/1 with Bet365 which won me £187.50. Total won £337.50. She's my favourite player now. What a personality. I had been following her before your advice but to be honest I would never had backed her to get to a final. So, thank you”
While Jim W also got involved at SW19:
“I was actually on Paolini. Your advice on Paolini for the French Open, prompted me to do a deep dive into her career and obviously why all of a sudden she wins her first Masters WTA and then her run in the French. She has fast feet but has come into form (like others Norrie, Ons go out of form). I took Paolini to get to the final also to win it”
Great stuff.
Paris… London… New York…?
Looking ahead to the fourth and final Grand Slam of 2024, Paolini’s rise – she’s now a Top 5 player – begs the question, what about the US Open?
The annual trip to New York takes place from 26th August – 8th September…
At the start of the year, Jasmine Paolini was ranked no.30 in the world. She had never been to a Grand Slam quarter final – yet alone a final. And had never even won a single main-draw match at Wimbledon. The rise has been meteoric. The secret to this newfound success? Jasmine says she simply started to believe in herself.
Well, if it’s all down to self-belief. Then confidence will be sky high right now, from this the most smiley of players on the tour…
Remember 2016…
Paolini’s big breakthrough year reminds me of Angelique Kerber in 2016. The German turned 28 years old that January – just like Paolini did this year. And like Jasmine, Angie had never made it to a Major final before…
Kerber went on to reach not one, not two, but three Grand Slam finals that season. Winning the Australian Open 2016 at 50/1, finishing runner-up at Wimbledon having gone off at 25/1, and then winning the US Open at 10/1…
The German had started that season at no.10 in the rankings – and ended it as the world no.1.
Paolini’s 2024 rise has arguably been more dramatic. From 30 to no.5 in the rankings (so far). Winning a maiden WTA 1000-grade ‘Masters’ event in February, as a 150/1 outsider in Dubai. Followed this spring & summer by that 150/1 showing at the French Open, and then a second Grand Slam final straight after, as a 66/1 shot at Wimbledon…
So, while the 2016 Grand Slam prices mentioned above for Kerber went from 50/1 Australia, to 25/1 Wimbledon, to 10/1 in New York. Paolini’s have gone 150/1 French Open, 66/1 Wimbledon – and now 50/1 or shorter for the upcoming US Open…
Given the Italian’s form and momentum, I wouldn’t put it past Jasmine making another big run. Before the trip to the Big Apple at the end of August, there’s a lot of tennis to be played. The run-up to the US Open includes WTA ‘Masters’ events in Toronto (6th Aug) and Cincinnati (13th Aug). Considering Paolini’s Dubai win came at that same 1000-grade level, and also on hard courts, we should keep the 28-year-old in mind when those two tournaments come along next month.
As for the US Open, Paolini is currently a best price 50/1 with Betway, with Each Way terms of 1/2 odds 1-2 places. Betfred are 40/1, Unibet, BetUK & BetMGM are 30/1. While Bet365 and Skybet are 28/1.
However, before the tours head to the States. There’s a different event for us to consider…
40/1 for the Gold Medal…
The Paris Olympics start next weekend (27th July). And with the Tennis event being held on the clay courts of Roland Garros, which is of course the French Open venue – and the scene of our big Each Way win on Paolini last month. The Olympic Gold Medal betting is my main area of focus for Jasmine right now…
Indeed, after her latest big run, at Wimbledon. Jasmine told Vogue magazine that: “My goal now is the Olympics. I can’t wait to start. I want to believe in myself and not set any limits. Ever.”
To find the Olympic Tennis market on Oddschecker, you have to go to the Olympics page, rather than the usual Tennis zone. Direct link here. Our friend Jasmine can be backed at 40/1 with three firms, and that looks the best next step for us with this exciting and entertaining player…
The Open starts tomorrow…
Before all eyes turn to Paris for the Olympics, this week’s big sporting event is also a historic one: The Open golf at Royal Troon…
In last month’s Feel-Good Hit of the Summer piece, I put up Xander Schauffele as a 14/1 shot for The Open. Citing his previous links-course credentials in Scotland, as well as his recent first Major win at the PGA Championship. The American posted a respectable Top 20 finish at the Scottish Open last weekend.
Schauffele is a top price of 14/1 for The Open with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, who offer 8 places Each Way at 1/5 odds. The tournament tees-off on Thursday morning.
And if you wanted my idea of a 100/1 shot with the potential (and proven pedigree) to go for the Claret Jug, then Jason Day is one to watch. The Australian was joint-2nd at last year’s Open at Royal Liverpool. And these days, the 36-year-old tends to save his best performances for the big events. Day is 125/1 with Skybet, Bet365, and Boylesports (8 Each Way places, 1/5 odds).
That’s all from me today. I’m on holiday next week.
Enjoy the tennis, the golf – and the Olympics…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone