OTW Extra Email Archive - June 2017
Wimbledon warm-ups - including a 50/1 shot...
Tuesday 27th June 2017
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Wimbledon warm-ups – including a 50/1 shot...
This time next week the action will be underway at the big one – Wimbledon 2017.
Right now we have three final ‘warm-up’ tournaments taking place on the grass, and a few players and prices catch my eye as Ones to Watch this week...
26th June - 1st July:
Last year, the week before Wimbledon saw two tournaments – with the prices of the four finalists being 20/1 and 33/1 winners and 33/1 and 14/1 runners-up.
On the back of 14/1, 16/1, 22/1, 33/1 and 66/1 finalists across the ATP and WTA Tour grass events last week, we have all the encouragement we need to look beyond the favourites and go after some double-figure Each Way prices today.
My attention is on the Eastbourne events and with play due to start from 11am let’s get straight down to business in the Outright Winner markets...
Ones to Watch this week – at 14/1, 16/1 and 50/1...
In the Men’s at Eastbourne, I like the look of Richard Gasquet at 14/1.
Novak Djokovic’s presence here (5/4 favourite) has resulted in the bookies cutting the Each Way terms to 1/3rd odds for reaching the final instead of the usual 1/2 odds.
But Gasquet is in the opposite side of the draw to Novak and the Serbian former World No.1 is seven tournaments without a win and hasn’t competed on grass since being knocked out in the 3rd Round at Wimbledon last year.
Gasquet is on our Wimbledon 2017 Ones to Watch list as a 100/1+ outsider. His grass court form includes a semi final at Halle last week, as well as a semi final at Wimbledon 2015 – and a run to the final here in Eastbourne in 2014.
In his side of the draw the Frenchman’s toughest opponents look to be Kevin Anderson (14/1) and John Isner (12/1). Both are tall men with big serves – but not the best movers on court. The respective career head-to-heads are 5-4 to Gasquet v Anderson and 2-2 v Isner. That pitches them quite evenly, but at the prices it’s the classy Gasquet who looks the best value proposition to me.
In the Women’s at Eastbourne, I’m going for another player from our Wimbledon Ones to Watch Report – Kristina Mladenovic at a best price 16/1 (and 14/1 in general). Along with a player with more a long-shot feeling to her, Kristyna Pliskova at a top price 50/1 (40/1 and 33/1 in general)...
Mladenovic is having a good year and has reached the quarter final or better in seven of her last nine tournaments. As I mentioned in the report, the 24-year-old Frenchwoman is an improving player and has a dangerous serve. She reached a WTA grass court final last season and a semi final the year before – there’s nothing to say she can’t go one better here.
In the other half of the draw, Kristyna Pliskova’s price is largely due to facing World No.1 Angelique Kerber (12/1) in her opening match. However, Kerber is without a tournament win in 16 attempts since winning the US Open last year, has lost her last 3 matches – and this is her first grass court appearance of 2017.
The less-heralded of the Pliskova sisters (her sister Karolina is in the opposite side of the Eastbourne draw and 7/2 favourite for the title), Kristyna is ranked 2nd behind her sister for Most Aces on the entire WTA Tour this season – and could cause Kerber a good few problems.
After that, the draw could open up for the World No.57, who isn’t likely to prioritise Wimbledon next week over the chance of a trophy win this week – unlike some of the bigger names...
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/3 odds 1-2 places
Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places
I’ll be back tomorrow with more in the build-up to Wimbledon, including details of my exclusive DAILY service for SW19...