OTW Extra Email Archive - March 2017
Miami Open - follow the form at 40/1 and 50/1...
Tuesday 21st March 2017
In your Ones to Watch email today:
100/1 v 50/1 final in California...
As I said last week, we did the right thing by avoiding the top players and the favourites at Indian Wells...
The first ATP Masters and WTA Premier Mandatory finals of the year were made up of four players all aged 30 and over. With the settled pre-tournament prices being:
ATP Indian Wells
Winner: R.Federer (10/1)
Runner-up: S.Wawrinka (14/1)
WTA Indian Wells
Winner: E.Vesnina (100/1)
Runner-up: S.Kuznetsova (50/1)
The Top 2 in both the Men’s and Women’s World Rankings were no-where to be seen in the desert...
Serena Williams was out injured (and also misses Miami this week – see below)...
Angelique Kerber went out in the 3rd Round to eventual 100/1 tournament winner Elena Vesnina. The World No.1 has now failed in 11 title attempts since lifting the US Open trophy at the end of last summer...
Andy Murray fell as the first hurdle in Indian Wells, then withdrew from Miami with an elbow injury...
And Novak Djokovic went out in the 3rd Round – before also announcing he’ll be missing Miami with an elbow injury...
Ones to Watch in Miami this week...
Event: Miami Open
Surface: Hard court
Date: 21st March – 2nd April
After all that, from the two sets of ‘Top 2’ players in the world, we’re left with just Kerber competing in Miami this week. Not ideal for a Masters level tournament, or for the organisers.
But from a betting point of view, the absence of some of the big names in Florida gives us the chance to hunt around for an unheralded player at outsider prices...
In the Men’s Miami betting, the resurgent Roger Federer is the 7/2 (4.50) favourite, followed by Rafael Nadal, Kei Nishikori and the returning-from-injury Milos Raonic all also at single-figure prices, with Indian Wells runner-up Stan Wawrinka at 10/1 at best.
Follow the form at 40/1 and 50/1...
If you’re looking for a long-shot contender in the Men’s event, 24-year-old American Jack Sock (40/1) ticks a few boxes in the formbook. Five of his seven career finals have been on hard courts, and two of his three ATP title wins have come ‘at home’ in the States...
Sock has been making good progress this year, too – with a run to the Indian Wells semi finals last week (no shame in losing to Federer), winning ATP Delray Beach (after Milos Raonic withdrew injured from the final) and also winning a hard court title in Auckland in January.
Before that, he reached the quarter finals of the Paris Masters 2016, only beaten by eventual champion John Isner. In fact, Sock’s last three Masters event results have been: semi final, quarter final, quarter final.
Sock is now the American No.1, and ranked a career-high No.17 in the World.
The hard-working and improving American is only one big match win or so away from making a real splash at a prestigious event like this. In front of a US crowd here, Sock is my One to Watch at a big Each Way price in the Men’s Miami draw.
In the Women’s, I like another improving player up to a career-high ranking...
Last week’s 100/1 v 50/1 Indian Wells final was the latest in a long line of encouraging results for big-odds backers in the Women’s game. Vesnina was the 100/1 winner there, beating fellow 100/1 outsider Kristina Mladenovic in the semi finals...
Vesnina and Mladenovic both go off at 50/1 for Miami, with beaten 50/1 Indian Wells finalist Svetlana Kuznetsova just 28/1 this time. While I find it very hard to see Vesnina or Kuznetsova follow-up after their bruising, longest-ever-Women’s-final in the Californian sun – there could be more to come from Mladenovic...
The 23-year-old Frenchwoman is on a steady rise. She broke the Top 100 four years ago and has been in the Top 50 for the last two. That line of progression is further demonstrated by a first WTA final in 2015, two more runner-up appearances in 2016 – followed by a first title win coming just last month.
After last week’s semi final run, Mladenovic is up to a career-high World Ranking of No.18. Like Sock, she’s getting closer to a big breakthrough.
Last week’s other Indian Wells semi finalist Karolina Pliskova is a 5/1 favourite for the Miami trophy, with Kerber just behind at 7/1. As with last week, I’m happy to overlook both those players at the prices. Kerber has been an uneasy World No.1 so far, while Pliskova’s record of 3 finals from her last 10 tournaments doesn’t make her price appealing here.
Mladenovic is in the top half of the draw where Kerber could be a potential quarter final opponent. Before then, the 50/1 underdog would need to get past Venus Williams (25/1), which, although a tough match, is very achievable for Mladenovic – having won their only previous meeting 2-0, just last month.
It’s also worth noting that the Miami courts will play faster than Indian Wells. The list of recent Miami winners is dominated by ‘power’ players with big serves – 8 of the last 10 WTA Miami titles have been won by Serena Williams or Victoria Azarenka, and neither are in action here...
Mladenovic sits 6th in the WTA Most Aces stats this season, and her forehand is also developing into a dangerous weapon. The same can be said for Jack Sock, who is ranked a respectable 16th for the year for ATP Most Aces – ahead of the likes of Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych – and also possesses a thumping right-handed forehand.
One to Watch:
Miami Open
Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places
Play starts in the Women’s event this afternoon, live on BT Sport – with the Men’s getting underway on Wednesday on Sky Sports.
I’ll be back next week with a Miami update; the tournament runs until a week Sunday, 2nd April.
Enjoy the tennis,
Best wishes,