OTW Extra Email Archive - March 2018

An early 300/1 outsider for Wimbledon…

Friday 23rd March 2018

In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:

  • 100/1 Masters result – at the first time of asking…
  • An early 300/1 outsider for Wimbledon…
  • Miami this week…

100/1 Masters result – at the first time of asking…

I said the Masters and Premier Mandatory events were ripe for a ‘100/1 winner’ – and so it proved last week with 125/1 Naomi Osaka winning the Indian Wells title…

Osaka beat Daria Kasatkina in the final; something of a changing of the guard moment with both women just 20 years of age and knocking out the current World No.1 and No.2 between them en route to the final (Simona Halep and Caroline Wozniacki).

Indian Wells was the very first Masters/ Premier Mandatory tournament of the season. And that was Osaka’s first ever WTA title win.

  • Kasatkina was an 80/1 & 66/1 Each Way pick in my full Ones to Watch service, giving members a 40/1 or 33/1 place payout…
  • This week I’m targeting the second of March’s prestigious ‘Sunshine double’ events, the Miami Open. Get instant access to all my Miami picks with a Free Trial here

Both Osaka and Kasatkina appeared on our Ones to Watch in 2017 list at the start of last season. After last week’s brilliant performances, they’re both a bit more well-known now – and there should be more success to come for those two.

An early 300/1 outsider for Wimbledon…

Another 20-year-old who has the potential to break through to the bigtime is Ana Konjuh

The likeable young Croatian is an exciting player, with fast shots and an attacking go-for-it game. She’s been blighted by injury throughout her fledgling career though, undergoing elbow surgery as far back as 2014 when still just a teenager.

Konjuh has had elbow surgery again since then, with the latest setback preventing her from getting her 2018 season going at the Australian Open as intended.

Yesterday on Twitter, Ana posted a photo of herself in a hospital bed with her arm in a cast, and said she’s looking forward to getting back on court…

Konjuh Tweet

Konjuh was in our Ones to Watch report for Wimbledon last summer, as a 66/1 outsider with grass-court pedigree. She made it to the 4th Round before going out to the eventual runner-up, Venus Williams.

There was no shame in that result against one of the all-time greats of the sport. I vowed to keep an eye out for Konjuh in future grass court seasons – just as I had done the year before, when an unfortunate twisted ankle during her match with former Wimbledon finalist Agnieszka Radwanska (Ana slipped on a tennis ball that was rolling across the court) cut short her SW19 campaign in a very cruel manner.

There are echoes of two of our best ever ‘Ones to Watch’ picks here…

In 2013, we followed 80/1 grass-court specialist Sabine Lisicki all the way to the Wimbledon final, including a memorable 10/1 victory over Serena Williams on the way. Lisicki is another player whose best chances have always been on grass, but has had a career plagued by injury.

And last summer we were on 40/1 US Open winner Sloane Stephens, who came back from foot surgery to win her home Grand Slam – seemingly against all the odds. Just six weeks before she went to New York and won the big one, Stephens was ranked No.957 in the world and was as big as 300/1…

Well, the same firms seem to be taking the same policy with Konjuh and her injury comeback attempt this coming summer…

888 Sport, Unibet and 32RedSport currently have Ana Konjuh at 300/1 for the Wimbledon 2018 Women’s title. They only offer a Win Only market, but considering the size of that price compared to other bookies who have Each Way prices available – 66/1 in general, with a couple as short as 50/1 and 40/1 – a speculative 300/1 Win Only pick isn’t a bad bet to have in your back pocket come the start of summer.

Konjuh’s only WTA title win to date has come on grass, at Nottingham in 2015. The year before she won five matches at Wimbledon to come through qualifying and reach the 3rd Round. And remember she was still just a teenager in all her previous visits to SW19.

Konjuh is currently No.84 in the world. In every other season of her pro career so far, she’s gone up the rankings. She has real potential – if her fitness comes good.

Ana might be fit and ready to spring a surprise at Wimbledon this June. She might not. There’s no way we can know. But as an early-bird pick with a story to tell, she’s certainly worth a look at this massive outsider price.

P.S

Miami this week…

Before Wimbledon, we have plenty of weekly tournaments with big prices to target. This week over on my members-only service we’re tackling the Miami Open. If you’re not on board yet, get involved – you can get instant access to my latest Miami picks with a Free Trial here.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch