OTW Extra Email Archive - March 2018
Go after a 100/1 winner at the Masters…
Friday 2nd March 2018
In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:
Welcome to this week’s edition of your free tennis email, Ones to Watch EXTRA.
Every week you get my updates on the latest player form, tournament winners & prices. Plus my dedicated free ‘Ones to Watch’ reports and player lists throughout the season.
Price Watch – 30/1, 50/1 & 66/1 winners on the tour last week…
They call it ‘frantic February’ and last month certainly lived up to its nickname with no fewer than 18 tournaments on the calendar.
The 50%+ strike-rate that I keep referring to has continued to so far in 2018 – with over half of all tournament finalists at double-figure prices of 10/1+.
Or in other words – the favourites really don’t win every week…
Last week the case was made yet again, with 7 of the 10 finalists in the bigger price bracket, including some hefty-odds winners at 30/1, 50/1 and 66/1.
Here are last week’s trophy winners, runners-up and pre-tournament Outright Winner prices in full:
WTA Budapest
Winner: A.Van Uytvanck (30/1)
Runner-up: D.Cibulkova (7/1)
WTA Dubai
Winner: E.Svitolina (9/1)
Runner-up: D.Kasatkina (40/1)
ATP Rio de Janeiro
Winner: D-S.Schwartzman (12/1)
Runner-up: F.Verdasco (25/1)
ATP Delray Beach
Winner: F.Tiafoe (50/1)
Runner-up: P.Gojowczyk (40/1)
ATP Marseille
Winner: K.Khachanov (66/1)
Runner-up: L.Pouille (5/1)
Form Watch – go after a 100/1 winner at the Masters…
The schedule for March contains just four tournaments – but they are big ones…
Indian Wells and the Miami Open run back to back in March, with concurrent ATP and WTA events at each venue.
These are the first ‘Masters’ level tournaments of the year – the highest level of competition behind the four annual Grand Slams.
And Indian Wells and Miami are so big, running for over a week each and played at some massive stadium complexes – that in tennis circles they are often referred to as the ‘fifth Slams.’
To give them their official tour names, the men’s events are ATP Masters 1000 and the women’s are Premier Mandatory.
I’ve been looking back at the last couple of seasons for those events, and there is encouraging news for big-odds hunters like us…
Last year, the Masters 1000 tournaments produced:
For the previous decade or so these events, like the Grand Slams, were in the grip of the Big Four of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray. It’s not so much the case so much anymore…
Granted, the immaculate Federer is back at World No.1 and winning Grand Slams, but Nadal has pulled out of his last two tournaments with injury – and Djokovic and Murray have both been out for some time on & off with injuries and recovery periods.
On the women’s tour, which has had a ‘wide open/ anyone can win it’ feel to it for longer than the men’s, Premier Mandatory tournaments over the last two years have produced:
At this month’s two big events in particular… 100/1 Elena Vesnina beat 50/1 Svetlana Kuznetsova in the 2017 Indian Wells final. In Miami, 16/1 Johanna Konta won last year, and Kuznetsova was a 100/1 runner-up in 2016.
Big tournaments. Big prices. Big opportunities.
If you’re looking for pointers for this month’s potential jackpot winners in Indian Wells and Miami…
Our Ones to Watch in 2018 list would be a good starting point. It contains 10 young and up-and-coming players, including Australian Open semi-finalist Hyeon Chung, and Lucas Pouille who has already made two ATP finals this year. View our pre-season report here.
Our 2017 report certainly helped with finding Masters wins last year – German rising star Alexander Zverev won two of last year’s nine Masters 1000 titles, at 12/1 and 25/1.
And for a more recent form update and specific Outright Winner (and Match Winner) advice for Indian Wells next week – why not take up a 14-day Free Trial to my full members-only Ones to Watch service. Get onboard here.
Indian Wells starts on Wednesday.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson