OTW Extra Email Archive - March 2021

Ones to Watch 2021 - player progress at 33/1...

Friday 12th March 2021

In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:

  • Positive signs for 2021…
  • Price Watch…
  • Player Progress…

With the first two months of the season under the belt, let’s take a look at how the players and prices are shaping up in 2021…

Including the men’s & women’s Australian Open events, there have been a total of 18 tournaments played so far.

While the global pandemic is far from over, the good news is the 2021 spring/ summer tennis schedule is looking a hell of lot rosier than 2020’s decimated sporting calendar.

Here’s the story so far, from a Ones to Watch perspective…

Price Watch…

The 18 tournaments completed up to 6th March have seen 19 of the 36 finalists go off at double-figure odds of 10/1 and bigger. That 53% figure for 10/1+ finalists is in line with the five-year figures that I compiled at the end of last season.

And the list includes plenty of prices way bigger than 10/1…

Such as 19-year-old Juan Manuel Cerundolo, who came through qualifying to win a debut ATP title last month. Lifting the trophy in Cordoba as a 100/1 outsider.

There have also been two 100/1+ runners-up on the tours. With 100/1 Kai Kanepi reaching the final at the WTA Gippsland Trophy in Melbourne last month. And 150/1 Stefano Travaglia a runner-up at the ATP Great Ocean Road Open, also in Melbourne.

So far in the new season, 33% of tournaments have produced a 50/1+ finalist, with 17% seeing a 100/1+ player in the final.

Again, those numbers are in keeping with the five-year averages. Which stand at 31% for tournaments with 50/1+ finalists, and 12% for 100/1 and bigger.

The signs are there then, yet again, for a season of big-odds betting opportunities, and wide-open tournaments…

We only have to look at this week’s women event in Dubai to see just how perilous it can be to back the favourites right now. Before the WTA Dubai tournament had even reached the quarter final stage, four of the top five seeds had been knocked out, including the top two.

  • You can keep track of all the weekly tournament Outright Winner prices on our Calendar 

Player Progress…

At the start of each season, I send you my latest Ones to Watch player list for the upcoming year, free of charge.

You can view the current report here: Ones to Watch in 2021

Here’s a ‘best in class’ update, with the players that have made the biggest impact so far in the new season…


Jennifer Brady runner-up Australian Open (33/1)
Current world ranking: #13 career-high

Iga Swiatekwon WTA Adelaide (11/2)
Current world ranking: #15 career-high

Marie Bouzkova runner-up WTA Phillip Island Trophy (33/1)
Current world ranking: #50


Jannik Sinnerwon ATP Great Ocean Road Open, Melbourne (4/1)
Current world ranking: #34

Felix Auger-Aliassimerunner-up ATP Murray River Open, Melbourne (10/1)
Current world ranking: #19

Sebastian Korda runner-up ATP Delray Beach (28/1)
Current world ranking: #92

Also, so far in 2021:

  • Korda, Kwon Soon-woo, Lorenzo Musetti, and Brandon Nakashima have all made finals on the lower-tier ATP Challenger Tour

There’s plenty of positives to take there. Not least Jennifer Brady, who’s followed in the footsteps of our 2020 Ones to Watch names Sofia Kenin and Iga Swiatek, by reaching a first Grand Slam final.

With the French Open, Wimbledon, and the US Open all to come this year. Along with the weekly ATP & WTA Tours. There will be stacks of opportunities to follow our Ones to Watch players.

And there will be new names to look out for at big odds, too. I’ll keep you posted with my plans.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch