The season starts now...

Thursday 2nd March 2023

There are two events on the tennis calendar this month - and they’re both biggies…

The season starts now…

First up, starting next week, we have Indian Wells in California. The first men’s ATP ‘Masters’ 1000 event of the year, and the second WTA 1000 tournament of the season.

That’s swiftly followed by a trip to Florida for the Miami Open. Once again, both the men and women will be in action, in this high-status 1000-grade combined ATP & WTA tournament.

Indian Wells & Miami are colloquially known as ‘the Sunshine Double.’ And even if the weather isn’t always glorious unbroken sunshine (it can get windy at both venues), these two large-scale tournaments are always bright spots on the calendar…

Some refer to these events as the ‘Fifth Majors.’ And I’d say that’s a fair statement. With seven rounds in the draw, and nearly a fortnight per tournament. Only the full 128-player, two-week Grand Slams hold more prestige and weight than Indian Wells and Miami.

Both are played in vast, impressive stadiums. With ‘Tennis Paradise’ situated in the Californian desert for Indian Wells, and the Miami Open moving to the Hard Rock Stadium a couple of years back.

Massive prices in March…

As well as being two top-quality tennis tournaments for us to get excited about. The main reason we look forward to the March Sunshine Double so much is for the betting. With a heap of recent history that all points to the same thing, both for the overall results and for my Ones to Watch picks: massive prices…

Here’s a list of some of the biggest-odds finalists from recent seasons - and the ones that Ones to Watch (OTW) members were on, too…

Last 5 years – Indian Wells & Miami:

2022:

ATP Indian Wells – Taylor Fritz champion – 100/1 (OTW 100/1 winner)
ATP Miami – Casper Ruud runner-up – 40/1 (OTW backed 22/1 Each Way mid-tournament)

2021:

ATP Indian Wells – Cameron Norrie champion – 66/1
ATP Indian Wells – Nikoloz Basilashvili runner-up – 100/1
WTA Indian Wells – Paula Badosa champion – 40/1
WTA Indian Wells – Victoria Azarenka runner-up – 33/1
ATP Miami – Hubert Hurkacz champion – 100/1
ATP Miami – Jannik Sinner runner-up – 33/1 (OTW Each Way payout)
WTA Miami – Bianca Andreescu runner-up – 25/1 (OTW Each Way payout)

2020:

Didn’t play – coronavirus

2019:

ATP Indian Wells – Dominic Thiem champion – 80/1
WTA Indian Wells – Bianca Andreescu champion – 100/1 (OTW backed 30/1 Each Way mid-tournament)
ATP Miami – John Isner runner-up – 40/1
WTA Miami – Ashleigh Barty champion – 28/1

2018:

WTA Indian Wells – Naomi Osaka champion – 125/1
WTA Indian Wells – Daria Kasatkina runner-up – 80/1 (OTW Each Way payout)
ATP Miami – John Isner champion – 80/1
ATP Miami – Alexander Zverev runner-up – 25/1
WTA Miami – Sloane Stephens champion – 66/1
WTA Miami – Jelena Ostapenko runner-up – 50/1

2017:

WTA Indian Wells – Elena Vesnina champion – 100/1
WTA Indian Wells – Svetlana Kuznetsova runner-up – 50/1

Next week: the quest for the next big winner…

That’s quite the stack of outcomes. With few bigger or better than our 100/1 winner on Taylor Fritz last March. The California native became a great friend of Ones to Watch members (although he doesn’t know it). With Taylor lifting the biggest trophy of his career to date at Indian Wells last season…

This year, there’s no chance that Mr Fritz will be anything near 100/1 or 80/1. My guess would be more like 20/1 and 16s. We’ll see next week…

The challenge will be to find the NEXT breakthrough players to win big at Indian Wells. And it’s certainly a task worth following up on, with the year’s upcoming Grand Slam tournaments in mind, too…

For example, there’s a link I’ve discussed before when it comes to that Californian event producing US Open champions of the near future…

The above list of recent big-price Indian Wells winners includes the likes of Naomi Osaka, Bianca Andreescu, and Dominic Thiem. All of whom went on to win a maiden Grand Slam title at the US Open, a year or two after triumphing at Indian Wells. Something to keep in mind when tackling this summer’s outright markets!

• Indian Wells starts next Wednesday, 8th March. I’ll be in touch before then with details of how you can get hold of ALL my picks and advice, for both the men’s & women’s events…

I’ll be back on Monday with more…

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch