Notes from the tour - week 10...

Monday 4th March 2024

They say that success breeds success…

Congratulations to tennis power couple Katie Boulter and Alex De Minaur, who both won tournaments last week…

On Saturday night, De Minaur defended his crown at the ATP 500 event in Acapulco – where he’d gone off as one of the favourites at 7/1. The Australian then hotfooted it by land and air, in time to sit courtside and watch his British girlfriend land the biggest title of her career…

Boulter took the prize at the WTA 500 tournament in San Diego – having started the week as a 28/1 underdog.

Alex and Katie can try and get a bit more time together this week… they both now head to Indian Wells for the first joint-ATP & WTA 1000-grade event of the year, the BNP Paribas Open…

The Indian Wells/ US Open Connection…

If you’re a long-time Ones to Watch follower then you may recall a tournament pattern that we’ve been tracking for a few years now…

With winners and finalists of the hard-court Indian Wells event in the Californian desert, also tending to do well at the US Open in New York – and often doing so in the same season…

As well as big guns like Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Serena Williams (who all won everything)…

In recent times, there’s a significant – if little reported – connection between several other players at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden and Flushing Meadows…

I love digging in and doing all my own research. Here are my findings…

In the men’s game:

• Juan Martin Del Potro won Indian Wells in 2018 – and then went on to reach the US Open final the same year (Del Potro also won the US Open in 2009, and finished runner-up at Indian Wells in 2013)

• Dominic Thiem won Indian Wells as 80/1 outsider in 2019 – and then won his first and only Grand Slam title, at the US Open the next year

• Daniil Medvedev reached the finals at both Indian Wells and the US Open last season. New York is Medvedev’s best ‘Slam, with a total of 3 appearances in the final (won one)

And in the women’s:

• Bianca Andreescu won Indian Wells as a 100/1 shot in March 2019 – and then went on to also win the US Open that summer (her sole Major title to date)

• Naomi Osaka won Indian Wells as a 125/1 outsider in 2018, which was her first WTA title. Osaka then won the US Open the same year, for her maiden Grand Slam trophy

• Flavia Pennetta won Indian Wells in 2014… then the next year, went on to pull off one of the greatest upsets in Grand Slam history – winning the US Open 2015 at odds of 200/1

• Svetlana Kuznetsova reached both the Indian Wells & US Open finals in the same season (2007). Overall, Kuznetsova made the Indian Wells final on 3 occasions, including in 2018 as a 50/1 underdog. Kuznetsova reached 2 US Open finals, winning one

• Current world no.1 Iga Swiatek lifted the trophies at both Indian Wells & the US Open in 2022. To date, those are Swiatek’s sole triumphs at those venues

Other than the fact that both Indian Wells and the US Open are massive, high-profile events, played outdoors on North American hard courts – I don’t have a deeper analysis for you of precisely why this connection occurs…

But sometimes we don’t need all the answers. We just need to have our eyes open to the facts…

For whatever reason, the Indian Wells/ US Open combo has a track record of featuring in players’ career-best seasons and trophy hauls.

In particular, if someone does well at Indian Wells as an outsider/ newcomer (eg. 125/1 Osaka, 100/1 Andreescu, 80/1 Thiem)… then the recent history noted above suggests that we might want to keep an eye on that player if they’re a big ante-post price for the US Open later in the season…

For instance: when Andreescu won the US Open in 2019, she had started the calendar year as a 100/1 outsider for New York. After winning Indian Wells in March and then going on to have a stellar summer, Andreescu then went off on day one at the US Open at just 14/1.

March madness: starts Wednesday…

If that Indian Wells/ US Open connection isn’t enough to whet your appetite for this week’s big tournament. Then how about this ‘March madness’ history of big-odds winners and finalists at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells…

Indian Wells – Outright Winner history:

• 2022 – Taylor Fritz men’s champion – 100/1 – a 100/1 winner for Ones to Watch members

• 2021 – Cameron Norrie men’s champion – 66/1

• 2021 – Nikoloz Basilashvili men’s runner-up – 100/1

• 2021 – Paula Badosa women’s champion – 40/1

• 2021 – Victoria Azarenka women’s runner-up – 33/1 

• 2019 – Dominic Thiem men’s champion – 80/1

• 2019 – Bianca Andreescu women’s champion – 100/1 – backed during the tournament at 30/1 in Ones to Watch

• 2018 – Naomi Osaka women’s champion – 125/1

• 2018 – Daria Kasatkina women’s runner-up – 80/1 – an Each Way payout for Ones to Watch members 

• 2017 – Elena Vesnina women’s champion – 100/1

• 2017 – Svetlana Kuznetsova women’s runner-up – 50/1

Join me for a dozen days in the desert…

The Indian Wells draws will be made on Tuesday. After that, I’ll be referring to my already-drafted shortlist – and looking to map out potential routes to the final, upsets, banana skins, and youngsters and outsiders to follow…

Play starts on Wednesday evening…

If you like the sound of those 80/1 and 100/1 Indian Wells results above…

Or the prospect of uncovering a future US Open champion at massive, rank outsider prices…

Then stick with me…

Because in my members-only Ones to Watch service, I’m giving Indian Wells the full treatment…

As well as sending out my tournament Outright Winner picks from the off. Just like in years gone by – including our star 100/1 Indian Wells winner on Taylor Fritz in 2022…

I’ll be going DAILY…

With an exclusive email update for Ones to Watch members, on all 12 days of the tournament.

This will be the first time I’ve offered a daily service of this scale, outside of the four annual Grand Slams…

Targeting this prestigious ATP & WTA Tour event with a highly-focused, day-by-day approach…

Ones to Watch members will receive all of my match analysis, player stats, and bet advice by email. For the full 12 days…

From the opening night on Wednesday 6th March… to finals day on Sunday 17th March…

Covering both fields – the men’s and women’s events – ATP Indian Wells and WTA Indian Wells…

With big-odds outsider picks in the Outright, Each Way markets…

And match picks, combos, and daily selections – wherever I see a bet for us…

I’ll be sending out the Day 1 email on Wednesday…

Don’t miss out…

Join me on the 100/1 quest this week >>

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch