OTW Extra Email Archive - March 2025
Notes from the Tour: Why 500/1 isn't enough...
Thursday 27th March 2025
It was only this time last week that you & I were talking about teenage tennis stars - and the media hype that surrounds them…
Since then, 19-year-old Alexandra Eala has put together a headline-making run to the WTA Miami semi finals…
Granted a wild card into the tournament by the Miami Open organisers, Rafael Nadal Academy graduate Eala has grasped the opportunity with both hands…
We always say, you never know when the big ‘breakthrough’ moment is going to come. But even a long-term talent spotter like me will admit to being surprised by the form being shown by the teenager from the Philippines right now…
Ranked no.140 - but now set to crack the world’s Top 100 in next week’s revised numbers. Alexandra lost in the 1st round of Australian Open qualifying on 7th January. That was the start of a run of five consecutive tournament entries (including the lower-tier ITF circuit) in which the 19-year-old failed to string together two match wins in a row…
That’s all changed for Eala now. Her route through the women’s Miami draw has seen her take out not one, not two, but three Grand Slam champions: Jelena Ostapenko, Madison Keys, and Iga Swiatek.
Tim Henman called yesterday’s victory over Swiatek one of the biggest shocks he’s ever been courtside to witness…
If we’re talking big shocks - even allowing for the teenage talent/ career potential element does negate some of the ‘surprise’ factor - then we need to talk about big prices…
Looking at the day-one Outright Winner odds for WTA Miami last week. Alexandra Eala was joint-bottom of the bookies’ lists:
Priced at 500/1 in general. With Unibet (and fellow Kambi sportsbook firms such as BetMGM) an outlier at 1,500/1…
What’s interesting though, is that if we look at who Eala has actually beaten. The odds tell an even more eye-popping story…
The Filipino youngster has been the underdog in every round:
1st Round - Eala beat Katie Volynets @ 11/4 (3.75)
2nd Round - beat Jelena Ostapenko @ 3/1 (4.0)
3rd Round - beat Madison Keys @ 9/1 (10.0)
Last 16 - Walkover v Paula Badosa (withdrew) @ 2/1 (3.0) - bets void
Quarter Final - beat Iga Swiatek @ 9/1 (10.0)
If we ignore the walkover v Badosa, the cumulative odds of Eala’s four match wins come out at 1,500/1.
And that’s just the story so far, in terms of reaching the semi finals…
The teenager still needs to win two more matches from here in order to lift the trophy…
If we consider that the bookies have Alexandra as an 11/4 (3.75) shot to beat world no.4 Jessica Pegula in tonight’s semi final. Those 11/4 odds would take Eala’s 1,500/1 match-winning streak to well over 5,000/1…
From then on, even with conservative estimates as to what Eala’s price would be in the final against Aryna Sabalenka or Jasmine Paolini. That 5,000/1 rollover would be doubled to 10,000/1 at the very least - and most likely much, much more…
Here at Ones to Watch, we love a teenage breakout story. We love big odds. But most of all, we love winners…
Ones to Watch members will be looking for Jessica Pegula to restore order, and beat Eala in the semi finals tonight…
We’re on Pegula at odds of 25/1 Each Way for the WTA Miami Open; a bet placed last week, before a ball had been hit. The American is today trading at just 3/1 at best for the trophy…
The place terms of our bet (1/2 odds for 1-2 places, Each Way) mean we have 12.5/1 (13.5) for Pegula to beat Eala tonight… for a match win that the bookies rate as an odds-on 1/4 (1.25) shot.
Pegula has made the Miami semi finals for the third time in four years. Jess considers this a home tournament, and in her on-court interview after beating Emma Raducanu last night, Pegula said: “I want to make it to that final so bad”...
After Miami concludes this weekend, the tours move on to clay next week. With no fewer than five tournaments on the calendar, starting from Monday…
Not a member yet? If you want to get your hands on ALL my big-odds, Each Way, tournament picks. Starting with those clay-court events next week. Get onboard here…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone