Notes from the Tour: Au Revoir, Venus?

Thursday 5th March 2026

Two players ranked outside the world’s Top 100 will be getting a big billing on centre court at Indian Wells tonight - but with good reason…

The BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells got underway yesterday. The 1st round continues this evening. And the second match scheduled for the main stadium court - a giant venue, the second-biggest of its kind anywhere on the planet - is the women’s world no.109 v the world no.560…

With a Qualifier playing a Wild Card…

The reason being, very simply, that one of those players is Venus Williams. A box office name. The former world no.1, and seven-time Grand Slam champion. Venus has yet to announce any plans to retire…

To still be playing on the pro tour at age 45 is to be commended. But while the romantics and sentimentalists will be out in force hoping for an upset from the veteran tonight - cheered on by a partisan American crowd…

This is a head-versus-heart match-up for me. And backing the talented 23-year-old Diane Parry to beat the current world no.560 is arguably the most sensible bet of the day:

• Having won 2 out of 2 matches in the Qualifying rounds over the weekend, both in straight sets by identical and commanding 6-2, 6-3 scorelines, Parry is tuned into the Indian Wells courts. Where conditions can be notoriously tricky - hard courts that can bounce high and play slow, with grit from the desert wind getting into the playing surface. Conditions that may well suit an accomplished clay-court player such as the young Frenchwoman

• In comparison, Williams has pretty much no recent form to point to. Venus has played 4, lost 4 so far in 2026. And she’s lost 7 tour matches in a row overall, going back to last summer

There are one or two glimmers of hope for Venus supporters today, though…

Williams has managed to dig deep and find some inspiration in defeat since her latest comeback, winning a set in three of those seven matches.

There is a chance that Parry may be slightly overawed by the occasion, initially at least. A huge stadium court, with home support for her opponent. Then again, this match is scheduled for around 1pm local time, and I wouldn’t expect the weekday afternoon atmosphere to be anywhere near as raucous and intimidating as a big, packed-out, night match, for example.

Back to the actual tennis, and it’s really hard to see beyond a victory for the younger woman tonight (match scheduled for not before 9pm UK time)...

This is where price comes in…

Parry is a heavy odds-on favourite to win, at 2/7 (1.29).

My preference, however, is for Parry with a -4.5 Games Handicap, at 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365.

That -4.5 Handicap pays out on a comfortable win for the favourite, 6-3, 6-3, for instance.

And it also builds in some allowance for Venus putting up a fight, before eventually being worn down by the graceful shots of Parry and her one-handed backhand. For example, a 6-7, 6-4, 6-2 win for the younger player would also cover that handicap.

P.S

If you’re not a member yet…

Over on the full members-only Ones to Watch service, we made our first moves yesterday, getting a batch of 50/1 and 100/1 Each Way shots in the book for both the men’s & women’s Indian Wells events, before a ball was hit. There’s still plenty of time to get involved…

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Enjoy the tennis…

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch