OTW Extra Email Archive - May 2017
Three big prices before Paris - at 16/1, 25/1 and 50/1…
Tuesday 23rd May 2017
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Big prices before Paris…
The French Open is coming up this weekend (see below). But before then we have four clay court tournaments taking place on the regular tours this week – the final build-up before the big one in Paris…
ATP Lyon
ATP Geneva
WTA Nuremberg
WTA Strasbourg
Some big prices catch the eye for me in three of those four events…
The week before a Grand Slam is historically a good time to be looking beyond the favourites – and sniffing around the more ‘long-shot’ types of player...
The big guns will have at least one eye on the impending Roland Garros fortnight. The top names will prioritise their fitness above any other commitments to lower-level tournaments this week.
The evidence is right there in recent results:
In 2016, the week before each of the four Grand Slam events combined produced tournament winners at odds of: 28/1, 50/1, 50/1, 3/1, 20/1, 33/1, 11/1, 20/1, 5/2, 3/1, 8/1, 16/1, 16/1, 16/1.
That’s 10 out of 14 wins at double-figure prices. Along with a couple of 33/1 runners-up, too.
And in January this year, in the week before the Australian Open, the four tournaments played saw 10/1, 18/1 and 40/1 winners and 33/1 and 50/1 finalists.
With that in mind, it’s well worth identifying a few players at speculative prices this week...
Ones to Watch this week – at 16/1, 25/1 and 50/1…
Play starts from 10am onwards today, so I’ll be brief to give you the best chance of reaching the Outright Winner markets before they are suspended for the day’s play (they’ll all be back up this evening and depending on results, prices may not change much today).
In the Women’s (WTA)…
Shelby Rogers could go well in Strasbourg – at 16/1 Each Way with the likes of Coral, William Hill and Paddy Power. The American benefited from big name Caroline Wozniacki withdrawing in their 1st Round match (after Rogers won the first set), and looks to have a winnable route through the rest of her half of the draw. Rogers made the WTA Charleston quarter finals on clay recently and was also a surprise package at the French Open last season, reaching the quarter finals and only losing to the eventual champion Garbine Muguruza. The American plays aggressive and can hit her way through a few players if she finds a good streak of form this week. Latest odds here.
Tatjana Maria looks a lively outsider at 25/1 Each Way in general in Nuremberg, including Coral, Ladbrokes and Betfred. The German is an experienced clay court player and reached the quarter finals in Marrakech recently, losing a close match to the in-form former French Open champion and eventual finalist Francesca Schiavone. Maria has a decent route through to the semi finals here and in a week like this, she could well take her chance. Latest odds here.
And in the Men’s (ATP)…
Nikoloz Basilashvili is on the radar at 50/1 Each Way in Lyon (Bet365, Skybet, Betway). The Georgian is the kind of flashy-hitting player who can produce some good stuff in his moments of inspiration. He’s shown some noteworthy form this season, including reaching the Memphis final (when also 50/1) and the Sofia semi final. He also reached an ATP final on clay last season, and won a lower-tier Challenger title on clay in the week before the French Open last year. Basilashvili avoids two of the favourites 4/1 Milos Raonic and 7/2 Juan Martin Del Potro in his half of the draw, while potential big name opponents 4/1 Nick Kyrgios and 6/1 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga may well have the French Open at the forefront of their minds. Latest odds here.
Lookout for your free French Open report…
Some big prices and intriguing tournaments for us there…
And I’ll be in touch later this week with your exclusive free Ones to Watch Report for the French Open itself.
PLUS – details of how you can get ALL my French Open Outright Winner advice and daily match bets, throughout the Paris fortnight.
Keep an eye on your emails from me this week…
Enjoy the tennis,
Best wishes,
