OTW Extra Email Archive - May 2017
Madrid Masters this week - 20/1 Carla returning to form...
Tuesday 9th May 2017
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Price Watch – more big ones...
May has started off just how April ended – with yet more big-price results in the tournament Outright Winner markets...
Here are last week’s settled prices for the winners and runners-up:
Winner: A.Zverev (5/1)
Runner-up: G.Pella (100/1)
Winner: P.Carreno Busta (7/1)
Runner-up: G.Muller (25/1)
Winner: M.Cilic (4/1)
Runner-up: M.Raonic (3/1)
Winner: M.Barthel (50/1)
Runner-up: Kristyna Pliskova (33/1)
Winner: A.Pavlyuchenkova (7/1)
Runner-up: F.Schiavone (8/1)
During April we saw five finalists priced up at odds of 50/1+. And as those prices listed above show, the first week of May saw a 50/1 winner along with 25/1, 33/1 and 100/1 finalists.
View the full list of 2017 settled Outright Winner prices to date on our tournament calendar.
Madrid Masters this week...
The clay court season continues to pick up pace with the prestigious Madrid Masters underway this week.
This tournament is an important signpost on the way to the French Open, and sees many of the top players in action including Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.
It’s the Women’s Madrid market that catches my eye though...
One to Watch this week – 20/1 Carla returning to form...
Event: WTA Madrid (Mutua Madrid Open), Spain
Surface: Clay court
Date: 7th – 14th May
With Women’s World No.1 Serena Williams out for the season, all the big titles are there for the taking and look wide open...
Reigning champion Simona Halep is the current 3/1 favourite and in the bottom half of the draw, but that price is far too short to interest me here. World No.5 Halep is 11 tournaments without a title win or even a final.
World No.2 Angelique Kerber is 5/1 second favourite and in the top half of the draw. Kerber is 14 tournaments without a trophy win since lifting the US Open at the end of last summer.
The favourites look vulnerable – Kerber is about to go back to No.1 and that role hasn’t been sitting well with her so far (no tournament wins while on the throne). While Halep has often struggled under pressure and as the reigning champion and favourite here, there’s plenty of pressure around.
Looking further down the list of competitors then and having studied the draw, I like the back from injury and returning to form Carla Suarez Navarro as a decent outside chance at 20/1 Each Way...
Back in 2015, Suarez Navarro made the Stuttgart quarter finals, then the Madrid quarter finals (beaten by Serena) before reaching the Rome Masters final. The Spaniard looked to be getting some form back when reaching the Stuttgart quarter finals again last month – and sits in an intriguing position in the bottom half of the Madrid draw this week...
The current World No.24 had a good win over No.11 Caroline Wozniacki last night, and Carla looks capable of getting back near the Top 10 this summer.
In the next round Suarez Navarro will face Laura Siegemund or Coco Vandeweghe. Siegemund won the title in Stuttgart recently but may struggle to keep that run going at this bigger event, while Coco prefers the faster player surfaces.
After that, Halep would be the big test. But the head-to-head between Suarez Navarro and Halep is close – 6-5 to Halep – with the Spaniard actually 4-0 ahead on clay.
If Carla can negotiate that quarter final, then a place in the semi finals would likely see her favourite to win her match, seeing as bottom quarter favourite Karolina Pliskova has already been knocked out.
Suarez Navarro is at her best on clay and could take advantage of an open looking field here...
One to Watch:
Outright Winner – Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places
Enjoy the tennis. I’ll be back next week with more in the build-up to the French Open in Paris...