OTW Extra Email Archive - May 2021
Women's Grand Slams: big prices, and first-time winners...
Tuesday 25th May 2021
In Ones to Watch EXTRA today:
Women’s Grand Slams: big prices, and first-time winners…
Rafael Nadal has won the men’s French Open title 13 times out of 16. He’s the odds-on 5/6 (1.83) favourite to break his own Roland Garros record next month.
The women’s event, however, is a different story altogether…
Simona Halep has got to the final twice in the last four years, but she’s out injured this time.
Since Justine Henin’s dominance in the mid-noughties (four French Open wins in five years from 2003 – 2007), the women’s clay-court Major has been a wide-open affair…
Since 2007, the only double winners in Paris have been Serena Williams (2013 & 2015), and Maria Sharapova (2012 & 2014). The last five champions have all been women getting their hands on the Suzanne-Lenglen cup for the first time:
2016 – Garbine Muguruza @ 16/1
2017 – Jelena Ostapenko @ 100/1
2018 – Simona Halep @ 6/1
2019 – Ashleigh Barty @ 22/1
2020 – Iga Swiatek @ 100/1
This ‘first-time champion’ trend is not exclusive to the French Open. I’ve gone back over the last 22 women’s Grand Slams (GS) overall, and the pattern continues: with big prices and newcomers cropping up time and time again…
Here are my findings:
Here’s that list of finalists and prices in full, with the first-timers marked on in brackets:
Women’s Grand Slam finals:
Australian Open 2021
Winner: Naomi Osaka 11/2
Runner-up: Jennifer Brady 33/1 (first GS final)
French Open 2020
Winner: Iga Swiatek 100/1 (first GS final)
Runner-up: Sofia Kenin 50/1
US Open 2020
Winner: Naomi Osaka 11/2
Runner-up: Victoria Azarenka 22/1
Australian Open 2020
Winner: Sofia Kenin 50/1 (first GS final)
Runner-up: Garbine Muguruza 40/1
US Open 2019
Winner: Bianca Andreescu 14/1 (first GS final)
Runner-up: Serena Williams 5/1
Wimbledon 2019
Winner: Simona Halep 18/1
Runner-up: Serena Williams 8/1
French Open 2019
Winner: Ashleigh Barty 22/1 (first GS final)
Runner-up: Marketa Vondrousova 40/1 (first GS final)
Australian Open 2019
Winner: Naomi Osaka 14/1
Runner-up: Petra Kvitova 18/1
US Open 2018
Winner: Naomi Osaka 50/1 (first GS final)
Runner-up: Serena Williams 6/1
Wimbledon 2018
Winner: Angelique Kerber 12/1
Runner-up: Serena Williams 6/1
French Open 2018
Winner: Simona Halep 6/1
Runner-up: Sloane Stephens 50/1
Australian Open 2018
Winner: Caroline Wozniacki 10/1
Runner-up: Simona Halep 8/1
US Open 2017
Winner: Sloane Stephens 40/1 (first GS final)
Runner-up: Madison Keys 16/1 (first GS final)
Wimbledon 2017
Winner: Garbine Muguruza 10/1
Runner-up: Venus Williams 16/1
French Open 2017
Winner: Jelena Ostapenko 100/1 (first GS final)
Runner-up: Simona Halep 4/1
Australian Open 2017
Winner: Serena Williams 3/1
Runner-up: Venus Williams 100/1
US Open 2016
Winner: Angelique Kerber 10/1
Runner-up: Karolina Pliskova 33/1 (first GS final)
Wimbledon 2016
Winner: Serena Williams 13/8
Runner-up: Angelique Kerber 25/1
French Open 2016
Winner: Garbine Muguruza 16/1
Runner-up: Serena Williams 11/4
Australian Open 2016
Winner: Angelique Kerber 50/1 (first GS final)
Runner-up: Serena Williams 3/1
US Open 2015
Winner: Flavia Pennetta 200/1 (first GS final)
Runner-up: Roberta Vinci 500/1 (first GS final)
Wimbledon 2015
Winner: Serena Williams 2/1
Runner-up: Garbine Muguruza 80/1 (first GS final)
Ready for Roland Garros this weekend…
Recent history is clear: first-time finalists and big-price winners are frequent occurrences at the French Open, and at women’s Grand Slams in general.
I’ll be looking for the big-odds contenders in Paris over the next two weeks…
The French Open draw will be made on Thursday evening, with the 1st round matches starting from Sunday. I’ll be studying the draw over the weekend, and releasing my first Outright Winner selections to Ones to Watch members on Sunday morning. The countdown is on…
Lookout for an invitation at the end of this week, with your chance to get onboard my members-only DAILY service for the French Open.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson